reports
- Blair Levin
SATS and Carr’s Endgame
Last week, the dominant story in our space involved the escalation of the battle between SATS and SpaceX as well as the threat to the SATS’ spectrum licenses through two FCC investigations that Chairman Carr initiated. In this note we focus on the twists and turns of those investigations and update our thoughts on the core questions that will help investors understand the path(s) forward, with endgames that can affect not just SATS but others who utilize and seek new spectrum.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
FCC Chair Escalates DISH/SpaceX battle
A few weeks ago, we analyzed the latest front in the long running battle between DISH and SpaceX. That battle has escalated, with a WSJ story describing a letter from FCC Chair Carr to DISH that appears to take SpaceX’s side and two FCC public notices that appear sympathetic to SpaceX as well. In this note, we update our analysis to reflect the letter, the public notices, and what happens going forward.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: Quick thoughts on risk to licenses from FCC action
We have received a barrage of calls and emails on the risk to Dish losing licenses following an FCC letter to the company announcing plans to investigate whether the Company has met regulatory requirements. For Blair’s last note on this topic, see here. Blair will have updated thoughts out tomorrow morning. In the meantime, we provide quick answers to the two most common questions we have been getting in this note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call
In this note we touch briefly on all the main controversies, including progress in retail and wholesale, the prospect of a Cable MVNO, progress on the network build and FCC commitments, the return of the DBS merger, the direct-to-device opportunity, and the impact of tower lease obligations on valuation.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 1Q25 Quick Take: Wireless making progress (but not enough)
Wireless results continued to improve, but not by enough to convince investors that the business will ultimately be worth what the spectrum is worth. We didn’t see any disclosure on the big strategic issues (spectrum sale; DBS merger; spectrum fight with SpaceX; potential D2D partner).
- Blair Levin
The Cost of the Deal: What Does the Skydance/Paramount Situation Tell ...
Paramount is entering into mediation to resolve the litigation with President Trump and remove a barrier to FCC approval of the pending acquisition by Skydance. In this note we update our thoughts on what the deal’s process tells us about pending and future deals can expect from the government approval process.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar swapping some 3.45GHz for 600MHz
EchoStar is swapping 3.45GHz licenses in markets where they have excess licenses for 600MHz licenses in markets where they have a shortfall. Financial terms weren’t disclosed, but we suspect that this was a straight swap of two similarly valued portfolios that doesn’t set a new mark for either band. The transactions, while small, suggest that EchoStar is still focused on improving their wireless business rather than on divesting spectrum.
- Philip Burnett
MVNO Rates: EchoStar vs. Cable
A question we are often asked is how much the carriers charge MVNOs for wireless services. While working through EchoStar’s 10-K we noticed new reporting that seems to show the MVNO fee it paid in 2022 and 2023. In this brief note we unpack the relevant EchoStar reporting and compare the implied MVNO cost per subscriber to our estimates for the Cable MVNO.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols bymarket-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
GEO GEO GROUP INC. (THE)
TGL. TECNOGLASS INC.
SRI STONERIDGE INC.
SATS ECHOSTAR CORPORATION CLASS A
CXW CORECIVIC INC.
AXS AXIS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
ACIW ACI WORLDWIDE INC.
NTNX NUTANIX INC. CLASS A
ADT ADT INC
ICL ICL GROUP LTD.
RRTS ROADRUNNER TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
MEG MONTROSE ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP
PRVA PRIVIA HEALTH GROUP INC
ZI ZOOMINFO TECHNOLOGIES INC
ROOT BRISTOW GROUP INC
SARO ROOT INC
STANDARDAERO INC.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS quick thoughts following the 4Q24 call
In this follow-up, we cover: the 2GHz appraisal and implications for spectrum value and liquidity; our updated 3.45GHz valuation; our updated thoughts on taxes in the event of a sale; the impact of the above on our target price; thoughts on EchoStar’s participation in the AWS-3 auction; comments on their direct-to-device aspirations; the fate of Hughes. We also provided updated thoughts on how investors might adjust their odds on the prospects of a spectrum sale, based on comments on the call.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 4Q24 Quick Take: Wireless has turned a corner but the road ahead ...
Wireless operating trends were better than expected. Pay-TV financials were strong. The free cash flow burn was huge due to a working capital drag that was likely driven by investments in growth in retail wireless (the Company should get this back). In addition to a detailed review of the print, in this note we cover thoughts on: 1. Whether to operate or to sell 2. The timing of a sale 3. Liquidity 4. Operating results 5. The migration of traffic onto Dish’s own network 6. The dangers of an empt...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Carriers could spend $180BN on spectrum over the next four years
In this note we cover the potential timing of all the major spectrum auctions and transactions that could occur during the current administration, the amount of financial capacity the carriers have for purchasing this spectrum, and the intrinsic value of the spectrum. The analysis has important implications for EchoStar and for the three national carriers.
- Blair Levin
DISH Challenge to Venu Succeeds: What’s Next?
This morning, we published a note on DISH’s challenge to the Venu Joint Venture. We discussed the implications of DISH’s letter to the District Court Judge who had been overseeing the case accusing the defendants of having “purchased their way out of their antitrust violation.” The letter pointed to how the joint venture harms MVPDs like DISH by forcing DISH (or Sling) to offer big bundles while offering their own “skinny” packages. The letter concluded by saying that “EchoStar is currently ev...
- Blair Levin
DISH Challenges Disney/Venu/Fubo Deal: Implications for Investors
Earlier this week, Fubo and Disney settled their disagreement over the antitrust case Fubo had filed challenging the Disney/Warner/Fox joint venture to create a streaming sports bundle called Venu. Fubo had won the first round, with the District Court finding that the joint venture violated the antitrust laws. The defendants appealed and the case was heading towards a Court of Appeals argument. The case settled, however, because Disney agreed to buy a controlling interest in Fubo as well as p...
- Blair Levin
What to Expect in 2025: The Most Consequential Year in Communications ...
Happy New Year, welcome back and we hope those in Blair’s path found shelter from the storm. 2025 will be the most consequential year in telecom and media policy since the mid-1990’s. In this note, we preview the key policy pivots we see as likely to impact the telecom and media landscape including the macro issues of taxes, tariffs, and deportations; and the sector focused issues affecting ISPs (reorientation of BEAD, USF reform, copper retirement and cybersecurity), wireless players (spectrum...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Quick hit: spectrum auction in 2025; implications for Dish and carrier...
Blair published a note this morning that anticipates the FCC receiving authority to auction the AWS-3 licenses that Dish relinquished as part of the NDAA. We think an auction could take place in 2H25. In this brief note, we cover the implications for Dish and for the other carriers.
- Blair Levin
Finally, Hope for a (Small) Spectrum Auction
One of the must-pass pieces of legislation left for this Congress is the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The current draft now includes a provision that would appropriate $3 billion for the Rip and Replace program designed to help small telecom companies remove and replace equipment purchased from Chinese telecommunications equipment companies, equipment Congress believes creates national security risks. The legislation funds the appropriation by allowing the FCC to conduct a one-ti...
- Jonathan Chaplin
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