reports
- Philip Burnett
MVNO Rates: EchoStar vs. Cable
A question we are often asked is how much the carriers charge MVNOs for wireless services. While working through EchoStar’s 10-K we noticed new reporting that seems to show the MVNO fee it paid in 2022 and 2023. In this brief note we unpack the relevant EchoStar reporting and compare the implied MVNO cost per subscriber to our estimates for the Cable MVNO.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols bymarket-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
GEO GEO GROUP INC. (THE)
TGL. TECNOGLASS INC.
SRI STONERIDGE INC.
SATS ECHOSTAR CORPORATION CLASS A
CXW CORECIVIC INC.
AXS AXIS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
ACIW ACI WORLDWIDE INC.
NTNX NUTANIX INC. CLASS A
ADT ADT INC
ICL ICL GROUP LTD.
RRTS ROADRUNNER TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
MEG MONTROSE ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP
PRVA PRIVIA HEALTH GROUP INC
ZI ZOOMINFO TECHNOLOGIES INC
ROOT BRISTOW GROUP INC
SARO ROOT INC
STANDARDAERO INC.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS quick thoughts following the 4Q24 call
In this follow-up, we cover: the 2GHz appraisal and implications for spectrum value and liquidity; our updated 3.45GHz valuation; our updated thoughts on taxes in the event of a sale; the impact of the above on our target price; thoughts on EchoStar’s participation in the AWS-3 auction; comments on their direct-to-device aspirations; the fate of Hughes. We also provided updated thoughts on how investors might adjust their odds on the prospects of a spectrum sale, based on comments on the call.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 4Q24 Quick Take: Wireless has turned a corner but the road ahead ...
Wireless operating trends were better than expected. Pay-TV financials were strong. The free cash flow burn was huge due to a working capital drag that was likely driven by investments in growth in retail wireless (the Company should get this back). In addition to a detailed review of the print, in this note we cover thoughts on: 1. Whether to operate or to sell 2. The timing of a sale 3. Liquidity 4. Operating results 5. The migration of traffic onto Dish’s own network 6. The dangers of an empt...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Carriers could spend $180BN on spectrum over the next four years
In this note we cover the potential timing of all the major spectrum auctions and transactions that could occur during the current administration, the amount of financial capacity the carriers have for purchasing this spectrum, and the intrinsic value of the spectrum. The analysis has important implications for EchoStar and for the three national carriers.
- Blair Levin
DISH Challenge to Venu Succeeds: What’s Next?
This morning, we published a note on DISH’s challenge to the Venu Joint Venture. We discussed the implications of DISH’s letter to the District Court Judge who had been overseeing the case accusing the defendants of having “purchased their way out of their antitrust violation.” The letter pointed to how the joint venture harms MVPDs like DISH by forcing DISH (or Sling) to offer big bundles while offering their own “skinny” packages. The letter concluded by saying that “EchoStar is currently ev...
- Blair Levin
DISH Challenges Disney/Venu/Fubo Deal: Implications for Investors
Earlier this week, Fubo and Disney settled their disagreement over the antitrust case Fubo had filed challenging the Disney/Warner/Fox joint venture to create a streaming sports bundle called Venu. Fubo had won the first round, with the District Court finding that the joint venture violated the antitrust laws. The defendants appealed and the case was heading towards a Court of Appeals argument. The case settled, however, because Disney agreed to buy a controlling interest in Fubo as well as p...
- Blair Levin
What to Expect in 2025: The Most Consequential Year in Communications ...
Happy New Year, welcome back and we hope those in Blair’s path found shelter from the storm. 2025 will be the most consequential year in telecom and media policy since the mid-1990’s. In this note, we preview the key policy pivots we see as likely to impact the telecom and media landscape including the macro issues of taxes, tariffs, and deportations; and the sector focused issues affecting ISPs (reorientation of BEAD, USF reform, copper retirement and cybersecurity), wireless players (spectrum...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Quick hit: spectrum auction in 2025; implications for Dish and carrier...
Blair published a note this morning that anticipates the FCC receiving authority to auction the AWS-3 licenses that Dish relinquished as part of the NDAA. We think an auction could take place in 2H25. In this brief note, we cover the implications for Dish and for the other carriers.
- Blair Levin
Finally, Hope for a (Small) Spectrum Auction
One of the must-pass pieces of legislation left for this Congress is the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The current draft now includes a provision that would appropriate $3 billion for the Rip and Replace program designed to help small telecom companies remove and replace equipment purchased from Chinese telecommunications equipment companies, equipment Congress believes creates national security risks. The legislation funds the appropriation by allowing the FCC to conduct a one-ti...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
3Q24 Broadband Trends: FWA capacity limits; FWA demand limits
In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we update our FWA capacity forecast. We also touch on early signs that demand for FWA may be limited, which could prevent mobile operators from reaching capacity limits (or force them to work harder to get there). This could have a big impact on the pace of Cable subscriber growth. Finally, we reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: a thought on the debt exchange
In this note we show how there is at least $0.7BN of additional value on the table that could help narrow the discount DBS bondholders are being asked to accept in order to get the DTV deal across the goal line. We also run through the differences between the four segments EchoStar reports at earnings and the four filing entities they disclose to the SEC. We also update our estimates for DBS, Dish Networks and Hughes now that their 10-Q’s have been filed.
- Jonathan Moreland
SEDG SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES INC.
SATS ECHOSTAR CORPORATION CLASS A
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
OPK OPKO HEALTH INC.
NMFC NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION
MCHX MARCHEX INC. CL B
KVHI KVH INDUSTRIES INC.
JRVR JAMES RIVER GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
HSII HEIDRICK & STRUGGLES INTERNATIONAL INC.
HASI
I3N HANNON ARMSTRONG SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL INC.
GDOT CHART INDUSTRIES INC.
EXAS GREEN DOT CORPORATION CLASS A
CROX EXACT SCIENCES CORPORATION
CNC CROCS INC.
AGCO CENTENE CORPORATION
AVNW AGCO CORPORATION
ENPH AVIAT NETWORKS
HTLD ENPHASE ENERGY INC.
ZOM HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC.
DMLP ZOMEDICA PHARMACEUTICALS CORP
MAV DORCHESTER MINERALS L.P.
HLNE PIONEER MUNICIPAL HIGH INCOME ADVANTAGE TRUST
SNBR HAMILTON LANE INCORPORATED CLASS A
MHI SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION
GNL PIONEER MUNICIPAL HIGH INCOME TRUST
BBDC GALEY & LORD INC.
CLDX BARINGS BDC INC.
ENX CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS INC.
ADV EATON VANCE NEW YORK MUNICIPAL BOND FUND
HPK ADVANTAGE SOLUTIONS INC (A)
MRVI HIGHPEAK ENERGY INC (A)
OPCH MARAVAI LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS
MODV OPTION CARE HEALTH INC
DCOM MODIVCARE INC
UAN DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES
PFBX INC.
OSCR CVR PARTNERS LP
BGS PEOPLES FINANCIAL CORP. (MISSISSIPPI)
WBD OSCAR HEALTH
TCBX B&G FOODS
BIGZ INC.
RXO_w WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY INC.
VANI THIRD COAST BANCSHARES INC
KLG_w BLACKROCK INNOVATION AND GROWTH TST
DBD RXO INC
MIO VIVANI MEDICAL INC
WPC WK KELLOGG CO
EVM DIEBOLD NIXDORF INCORPORATED
PIONEER MUN HIGH INCOME OPPORTUNITIES FD INC
W. P. CAREY AND CO. LLC
EATON VANCE INSD CALIF MUN BD FD
Moody's Ratings appends limited default (LD) to EchoStar's Caa2-PD PDR...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) appended a limited default (LD) designation to EchoStar Corporation's (EchoStar) probability of default rating (PDR), revising it to Caa2-PD/LD from Caa2-PD. This follows EchoStar's exchanges of convertible debt at the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, DISH Network Corpora...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar: quick thoughts following the call 3Q24
In this note we focus on just one thing: the fate of DBS. We will cover what we learned about the mobile business in a follow up, if we can (there wasn’t much). Based on conversations, we believe bondholders will reject the current DBS exchange offer (it expires at 5PM). The DBS merger is contingent on the exchange succeeding, and so this will fail too. We cover the implications for EchoStar, TPG, and bond holders in this note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 3Q24 Quick Take: Results not great; two of three 747s have landed...
We have updated this note for details published in the 10-Q. We have also updated the tables and charts and included them in this version. The biggest change from our initial take relates to ACP losses, which were much higher than expected. The company lost 359k ACP subs, or over 90% of the base they had at the end of 2Q24. This is worse than ACP retention seen at peers.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 3Q24 Quick Take: Results okay; two of three 747s have landed
The operating trends were mostly worse than expected, though we won’t have full visibility until the EchoStar 10-Q is filed (and we won’t have complete visibility until the DBS 10-Q is filed in about a week). Wireless net adds excluding ACP were strong. The cash balance excluding the financing from TPG was lower than we expected, but the new financing closed this morning, which will render any concerns about that moot.
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