reports
- David Barden
SATS: SpaceX, the final frontier
We are revising our SATS valuation analysis to reflect 1) reports that SpaceX is pursuing a new secondary equity round seeking a valuation between $750-800bn vs. SATS’ $400bn buy-in as compensation for recent spectrum sales, and 2) rising concerns that upper C-Band spectrum deployments may get bogged down in airplane altimeter interference issues, placing a growing premium on today’s commercially available spectrum, specifically the AWS-3. We are raising our SATS price objective to $125 from $10...
- David Barden
The future of broadband - Cable is losing share
Cable companies have been losing share among terrestrial providers for the past 16 quarters. We believe they are gaining share in ~45% of their footprint where they compete against DSL but losing share in the ~55% of the market where they compete against fiber.
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
The future of broadband 3Q25: Our updated broadband industry forecast ...
In this report, our latest broadband outlook tome, in addition to forecasting the future of broadband by technology for the next 5 years, we undertake a sensitivity analysis for Cable's end-state market share possibilities. We also refresh our work on the relative competitive positioning of carriers based on end-user cNPS scores via our Recon Analytics partnership.
- David Barden
SATS 3Q25 Quick Take: Key topics for the call will be taxes, towers, a...
Echostar’s subscriber results were better than expected but financial results were weaker. They announced the sale of their unpaired AWS-3 spectrum to SpaceX for $2.6BN in stock. We did not attach any material value to this spectrum, so the sale represents windfall upside for the stock. Investors are asking if we believe the impairment charge taken this quarter, partially allocated to spectrum, following the decision to shutter the facilities-based wireless business represents a reduction in the...
- Blair Levin
Will Chinese Investment in SpaceX affect the FCC 2GHz review?
New reports indicate that SpaceX has previously undisclosed investments by Chinese investors. This has raised questions about whether those investments could affect the pending application by SpaceX to purchase the AWS4/2GHz band from SATS. In this note, we provide a legal and historic background for how investors should think about that question.
- Philip Burnett
EchoStar in Paris: Quick thoughts
Hamid and Charlie just wrapped in Paris. In this brief note we cover key topics, including the company’s thoughts on selling its spectrum, its plans for future uses of the spectrum proceeds, and its thinking on taxes and other liabilities. We also address the timing of future spectrum sales and the outlook for Boost, Hughes and DBS. Finally, we share insights on SpaceX’s new S-Band direct-to-device service.
- Blair Levin
Implications of Carr’s SATS/SpaceX Competition Comments
FCC Chairman Carr gave a speech this week in which he said that the SATS/SpaceX deal “is a potential gamechanger for the American consumer—it promises to light up new spectrum and bring new sources of competition to the wireless and connectivity market.” In this note we review the evidence on whether he is likely to be proven correct but also what the implications of his comments are for wireless policy in the near-term.
- Blair Levin
- Philip Burnett
SpaceX Buys AWS-4 and PCS H-Block from EchoStar
EchoStar announced that it is selling its AWS-4 and PCS H-Block spectrum to SpaceX for a total of $19BN, including $8.5BN of cash, $8.5BN of stock in SpaceX, and $2BN of interest payments payable to EchoStar. According to SpaceX, the purchase agreement also covers EchoStar’s global MSS licenses.
- Blair Levin
SATS and SpaceX: Quick Policy Perspective
This morning SATS announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement with SpaceX to sell the company's AWS-4 and H-block spectrum licenses for approximately $17 billion for SpaceX to fund an aggregate of approximately $2 billion of cash interest payments payable on EchoStar debt through November of 2027. Further, SpaceX and EchoStar will enter into an agreement to enable EchoStar's Boost Mobile subscribers to access Starlink’s Direct to Cell service. In this note, we quickly analyze the ...
- Philip Burnett
EchoStar Spectrum Sales: Implications for Industry FWA Capacity
In the wake of EchoStar selling spectrum to AT&T, we have updated our FWA capacity model on the assumption that all of the company’s spectrum eventually ends up with the big three carriers. We now expect the industry to have capacity for almost 22MM residential FWA subscribers, up from 19.5MM before.
- Blair Levin
SATS Spectrum Deals Raise Hopes for DBS Deal
With the announcement of SATS’ deal with T and prospects for further spectrum sales, investors are once again hopeful that the long-anticipated merger of the DBS companies can happen. In this note, we update our thoughts on the government review of that deal if it happens.
- Blair Levin
SATS, The DOJ, and Further Policy Considerations
The deal between SATS and T has raised numerous policy related questions. In this note, we expand our policy analysis to address the questions we have most often received this week and clear up some misconceptions we have noticed about how policy process will proceed from here on out.
- Philip Burnett
- Philip Burnett
The EchoStar Deal: Impacts to AT&T
We covered our first reaction to the deal before the AT&T call this morning. Blair covered the policy implications here. In this note, we follow up with a detailed analysis of the impact to AT&T. While the deal is very modestly accretive to AT&T free cash flow over time, it reduces share repurchases beyond 2027 and is therefore a touch dilutive to long-run free cash flow per share. The small decline seen by T equity today is generally in line with the reduction in value from lower free cash flow...
- Philip Burnett
- Blair Levin
SATS/T Reach Agreement: What Will FCC Do Next?
This morning, SATS and T announced an agreement by which SATS would sell spectrum to T for $23 billion and enter into a hybrid MVNO deal. Our New Street colleagues discuss the financial implications in a separate note, but in this note we discuss the implications for policy and the current FCC proceedings.
- Blair Levin
SATS: How should Investors Interpret the Sounds of Silence?
What’s New: Nothing. That is, since the comment period on the two public notices affecting SATS’ spectrum formally ended, there has been no material activity in the docket. Further, since the Oval Office meeting involving the President, FCC Chair Carr and SATS Chairman Ergen, there has been vague comments but no material data about discussions over spectrum sales. In this note, we analyze the different scenarios that the sounds of silence could signify.
- Blair Levin
SATS v. Carr: Post Earnings Call State of Play
Last Friday, SATS held its earnings. Our New Street colleagues offered their thoughts on the financial implications of what was learned (LINK). In this note, we analyze what the call revealed in terms of the state of play of the ongoing negotiations between FCC Chair Carr and SATS.
- Philip Burnett
SATS: Quick thoughts following the 2Q25 Call
In our note this morning, we flagged that on the call management was likely to stick to boilerplate language about continuing to work to stand up a successful fourth wireless network, and wouldn’t have much to say about the FCC negotiations. That was pretty much the case. However, we did learn interesting details on how the company is thinking about the D2D opportunity, and gained insights on recent activity in the wireless market. We cover thoughts on both in this brief note.
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