reports
- David Barden
Not unexpectedly, SATS defaults on AMT leases – We quantify the readth...
AMT (Buy, PT $203), after the close today, shared that SATS has defaulted on its tower lease agreement payments. This was unsurprising following a similar revelation from CCI (Neutral, PT $93) on 1/12/26 (see our note). AMT says this action will have no impact on 2025 results. AMT did not mention the value of the remaining payments, but we assume it is similar to the ~$3.5bn (undiscounted) CCI cited.
- David Barden
The future of US wireless, right now - Extrapolating 3Q25 wireless tre...
We are taking 3Q25 results and the most recent cNPS data and laying out our latest thinking and forecasts ahead of 4Q results. We expect 4Q results and attendant 2026 guidance to contain material information value for investors and we wanted to share our latest forecasts, data, and trends as a starting point as we navigate this impactful season.
- Blair Levin
DISH Antitrust Challenge to DIS; Will Content or Distribution Gain Fle...
Earlier this month DISH filed an antitrust complaint against DIS in the latest chapter of a long running dispute over DIS’s efforts to create new sports bundles and DISH’s efforts to create new options for how its customers access programming over its platform. In this note we explore the implications of the battle, how it might affect the flexibility of content and distribution in seeking to adjust to thrive in the media world to come, and what it could tell us about the direction of media and...
- David Barden
SATS defaults on CCI leases - Quantifying the readthrough
CCI (Neutral, PT $93) after the close today announced that SATS has defaulted on its tower lease agreement payments. As a result, the company has terminated the agreement and will seek to recover ~$3.5Bn+ of the remaining undiscounted payments owed. CCI says this decision will have no impact on 2025 results. As a function of this announcement, we are taking SATS payments fully out of our model for 2026E. Previously, we had zeroed out SATS payments for only 2H26 and beyond. In this note, we shar...
- Blair Levin
Part Three of Year in Preview: Our Analysis about Policyband’s Predict...
This week we published three notes that preview what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment. In the first, we evaluated what questions do we not know the answer to today but will in a year that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In the second, we looked at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out. In this third one we evaluate nine predictions mad...
- Blair Levin
Part Two of Year in Preview: What about SATS, BEAD, Spectrum, and Othe...
This week we are publishing three notes that analyze what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment in the year ahead. In the first one, published yesterday we evaluated questions that we do not know the answer to today--but will in a year--that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In this second one, we look at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out i...
- David Barden
Towers 4Q25 Estimates & Ratings Refresh
The last 3 months have seen substantial tower price dislocation catalyzed by news that SATS intends to invoke contractual clauses and stop paying the tower industry for current leases. We highlight some key industry developments impacting sentiment and preview 4Q results based on our catch-up conversations with the companies in recent weeks.
- David Barden
SATS: SpaceX, the final frontier
We are revising our SATS valuation analysis to reflect 1) reports that SpaceX is pursuing a new secondary equity round seeking a valuation between $750-800bn vs. SATS’ $400bn buy-in as compensation for recent spectrum sales, and 2) rising concerns that upper C-Band spectrum deployments may get bogged down in airplane altimeter interference issues, placing a growing premium on today’s commercially available spectrum, specifically the AWS-3. We are raising our SATS price objective to $125 from $10...
- David Barden
The future of broadband - Cable is losing share
Cable companies have been losing share among terrestrial providers for the past 16 quarters. We believe they are gaining share in ~45% of their footprint where they compete against DSL but losing share in the ~55% of the market where they compete against fiber.
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
The future of broadband 3Q25: Our updated broadband industry forecast ...
In this report, our latest broadband outlook tome, in addition to forecasting the future of broadband by technology for the next 5 years, we undertake a sensitivity analysis for Cable's end-state market share possibilities. We also refresh our work on the relative competitive positioning of carriers based on end-user cNPS scores via our Recon Analytics partnership.
- David Barden
SATS 3Q25 Quick Take: Key topics for the call will be taxes, towers, a...
Echostar’s subscriber results were better than expected but financial results were weaker. They announced the sale of their unpaired AWS-3 spectrum to SpaceX for $2.6BN in stock. We did not attach any material value to this spectrum, so the sale represents windfall upside for the stock. Investors are asking if we believe the impairment charge taken this quarter, partially allocated to spectrum, following the decision to shutter the facilities-based wireless business represents a reduction in the...
- Blair Levin
Will Chinese Investment in SpaceX affect the FCC 2GHz review?
New reports indicate that SpaceX has previously undisclosed investments by Chinese investors. This has raised questions about whether those investments could affect the pending application by SpaceX to purchase the AWS4/2GHz band from SATS. In this note, we provide a legal and historic background for how investors should think about that question.
- Philip Burnett
EchoStar in Paris: Quick thoughts
Hamid and Charlie just wrapped in Paris. In this brief note we cover key topics, including the company’s thoughts on selling its spectrum, its plans for future uses of the spectrum proceeds, and its thinking on taxes and other liabilities. We also address the timing of future spectrum sales and the outlook for Boost, Hughes and DBS. Finally, we share insights on SpaceX’s new S-Band direct-to-device service.
- Blair Levin
Implications of Carr’s SATS/SpaceX Competition Comments
FCC Chairman Carr gave a speech this week in which he said that the SATS/SpaceX deal “is a potential gamechanger for the American consumer—it promises to light up new spectrum and bring new sources of competition to the wireless and connectivity market.” In this note we review the evidence on whether he is likely to be proven correct but also what the implications of his comments are for wireless policy in the near-term.
- Blair Levin
- Philip Burnett
SpaceX Buys AWS-4 and PCS H-Block from EchoStar
EchoStar announced that it is selling its AWS-4 and PCS H-Block spectrum to SpaceX for a total of $19BN, including $8.5BN of cash, $8.5BN of stock in SpaceX, and $2BN of interest payments payable to EchoStar. According to SpaceX, the purchase agreement also covers EchoStar’s global MSS licenses.
- Blair Levin
SATS and SpaceX: Quick Policy Perspective
This morning SATS announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement with SpaceX to sell the company's AWS-4 and H-block spectrum licenses for approximately $17 billion for SpaceX to fund an aggregate of approximately $2 billion of cash interest payments payable on EchoStar debt through November of 2027. Further, SpaceX and EchoStar will enter into an agreement to enable EchoStar's Boost Mobile subscribers to access Starlink’s Direct to Cell service. In this note, we quickly analyze the ...
- Philip Burnett
EchoStar Spectrum Sales: Implications for Industry FWA Capacity
In the wake of EchoStar selling spectrum to AT&T, we have updated our FWA capacity model on the assumption that all of the company’s spectrum eventually ends up with the big three carriers. We now expect the industry to have capacity for almost 22MM residential FWA subscribers, up from 19.5MM before.
- Blair Levin
SATS Spectrum Deals Raise Hopes for DBS Deal
With the announcement of SATS’ deal with T and prospects for further spectrum sales, investors are once again hopeful that the long-anticipated merger of the DBS companies can happen. In this note, we update our thoughts on the government review of that deal if it happens.
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