reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar amends DBS exchange offer
EchoStar has increased its offer to exchange certain DBS notes for new DTV notes by $0.06-$0.065, lowering the discount by about $70MM from $1.568BN to $1.499BN. We have no idea whether this is an output of discussions between bondholders and the company or whether the company is doing this unilaterally. Either way, improving the terms increases the odds of the exchange going through. Our base case remains that the deal is in the best interest of all parties and will ultimately be done.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar: Value increases following transactions (but takes longer to ...
We have updated our model for the sale of DBS and increased investment in network infrastructure and subscriber growth following the capital raise. We have also updated spectrum values for recent transactions. We are more confident than ever in the value that will be realized if spectrum is sold, though the timing of a sale has likely been pushed out. Dish could build a business that is as valuable as the spectrum, but it is tough to have confidence in this.
- Jonathan Chaplin
US Cellular Sells 850MHz Licenses to Verizon
US Cellular has sold its cellular licenses in the 850MHz band, as well as a handful of AWS and PCS licenses, to Verizon for $1 billion. The transaction isn’t a surprise; we have been expecting USM to sell all their assets (USM and TDS have been our favorite small ideas). The price was higher than expected. In this note we briefly cover implications for USM, TDS, EchoStar, and spectrum values more broadly.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Implications of Multiple Mergers at the FCC
It appears likely that within a few months, multiple transactions—TMUS buying US Cellular, VZ buying Frontier, and DISH and DirecTV merging—will be pending at the FCC. The transactions involve all four, or three (depending on how you think about it) of the national facilities based mobile carriers. Investors have asked, how will the presence of multiple transactions affect the process of approval for each other? We address that question in this note.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: What We Learned from the DBS Deal Announcements
The big news yesterday was the announcement of a series of deals related to EchoStar, DirecTV, TPG and AT&T. Our colleagues have put out a series of notes relating to what we learned on the financial front. In this quick note we review what we learned on the antitrust/regulatory front.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar transactions – they did it!
A couple of quarters ago, Dish set out to lower debt outstanding, extend maturities on the debt that remained, and put new cash on the balance sheet. They had a deadline of November 2024, when $2BN of debt at DBS matured. As we approached the deadline, investors were growing increasingly skeptical that it could be done. They did it all, and they wrapped a sale of DBS into the process. Our thoughts on the deals and the implications for EchoStar and the broader industry in this note.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
ATNI ATN INTERNATIONAL INC.
WYNN WYNN RESORTS LIMITED
STAA STAAR SURGICAL CO.
SATS ECHOSTAR CORPORATION CLASS A
NWPX NORTHWEST PIPE CO.
LVS LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP.
KRNT KORNIT DIGITAL LTD.
ITRI ITRON INC.
IRDM IRIDIUM COMMUNICATIONS INC.
HNRG HALLADOR ENERGY CO.
ELMD ELECTROMED
CVS CVS HEALTH CORPORATION
CRY CRYOLIFE INC.
BZH BEAZER HOMES USA INC.
ASPN ASPEN AEROGELS
ARDX ARDELYX INC
AMSC AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORP.
LULU LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
LEU CENTRUS ENERGY CORPORATION
NC NACCO INDUSTRIES INC. CL A
CMCL CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION
SNBR SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION
YEXT YEXT
CNX CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION
GLOB GAZIT-GLOBE LTD.
MTRX MATRIX IT LTD.
MEC MAYVILLE ENGINEERING
IGMS IGM BIOSCIENCES
PWFL POWERFLEET INC
OCN OCWEN FINANCIAL CORP.
MP MP MATERIALS CORP (A)
DFH DREAM FINDERS HOMES
LUMN LUMEN TECHNOLOGIES INC.
CSIOY CASIO COMPUTER CO
HOOD ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC
RKLB ROCKET LAB USA INC
EE EXCELERATE ENERGY INC
LASE LASER PHOTONICS CORP
CMPO COMPOSECURE INC
MPTI M TRON INDUSTRIES INC
LUNR INTUITIVE MACHINES INC
WGS GENEDX HOLDINGS CORP.
BYRN BYRNA TECHNOLOGIES INC
DAVE DAVE INC
TELO TELOMIR PHARMACEUTICALS INC
BVS BAYVIEW CAPITAL TRUST I PFD 9.76%
SNCR SYNCHRONOSS TECHNOLOGIES INC.
TECX TD GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY LEADERS CAD HEDGED INDEX ETF
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Rural Areas and the DBS Merger
One issue that keeps coming up is how the government will assess the competitive impact of the DBS merger on rural areas. A New York Times article this weekend summarized the concern many have raised. In this note, we assess what the article got right and what it missed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Dish / DTV reportedly close to a deal
Bloomberg and the WSJ both reported this afternoon that the companies are close to a deal. They claim an announcement could come by Monday. The only new data points that we picked up were that DTV is the acquirer, and AT&T and TPG will remain investors (and presumably remain in control). In addition, the stories claim that Sling will be part of the sale.
- Russell Waller
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: The DBS Deal and the 12 GHz Band
While investors contemplate the financial implications and regulatory prospects of a potential DISH/DirecTV deal, one generally overlooked element of the transaction is the role the 12 GHz band could play in the value creation through the deal. In this note we analyze that potential which could be more disruptive to the market than generally understood; stated differently, the value of the deal could be more about spectrum than synergy.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Dish ends negotiations with DBS creditors
Dish filed an 8-K this morning stating that its negotiations with DBS creditors had concluded without reaching an agreement about any transactions. The negotiations were about exchanging certain DBS notes for new secured debt and raising new capital. The company says it remains in discussions with various other parties about possible financing transactions.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Dish seeks build extension (that we think they'll get)
Blair put out a note on Dish’s request for an extension of the buildout deadline. Blair argues that the FCC is likely to agree to the extension. If they do, it will be material for both the credit and the equity. Blair’s note is a must read for anyone involved. We provide some additional quick thoughts here.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy Quick Take: DISH Seeks FCC Adjustments to Build Out
DISH just filed a letter with the FCC seeking to modify their June 2025 buildout requirements in exchange for accelerated deployments in certain markets and other commitments. It argues that its new framework “will undoubtedly benefit consumers…. (helping) sustain EchoStar’s presence as a nationwide facilities-based wireless provider, enabling Americans to be able to take advantage of innovative new technologies and competition in the wireless market (which in turn will lead to lower prices). T...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: The Prospects for a DBS Merger Review: This Time It Actual...
Last Thursday, the New York Times ran a story any investor in media could have written several years ago headlined “Satellite TV Is in Trouble. DirecTV’s Dispute with Disney Shows Why: While the Cable TV Business is Declining Quickly, Satellite TV is Decaying Even Faster.”
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Russell Waller
Odido Q2 24: Fixed going from strength to strength, but mobile laggi...
The fixed business continues to perform well for Odido, but the same can not be said for mobile, where subs growth is now negative, and MSR growth is close to zero. In aggregate, SR has declined again to +3.1% y/y (MSR +0.1% and FSR +11.9% y/y) from +3.9% y/y. Odido is doing a good job of converting the SR into EBITDA growth, but the lack of ARPU and MSR growth is a bit of a concern.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: Model Update
We have updated our EchoStar model following the filing of all four 10-Q’s last week. The changes are modest, and we continue to see the company funded through November 14th. We run through the major intercompany cash movements in 2Q24, and the most likely path to raising Capital if a holistic solution that raises new cash, pushes out maturities, and lowers debt outstanding can’t be negotiated before November 14th
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