reports
- David Barden
TMUS: Setting up for 1Q results
We are updating our model based on our recent conversations with management and comments at industry conferences. The only major change is that we’ve lowered postpaid account net adds for 1Q following Srini’s comments about seasonality at an industry conference (full year estimate is nearly unchanged). We got some updated color that has rebalanced our quarterly estimates for the year.
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
Broadband cNPS comparisons by tech & operator - The latest data availa...
Scouring the data in this report, we’d point you to the appendix for a quick review. What stands out is that when a broadband customer interacts with a sales rep, presumably they are doing so with a problem or request that an automated or AI-driven IVR cannot address. Almost without fail, sales rep interactions are the Achilles heal of the market right now and likely a core reason, care scores suffer. The operator that can solve this puzzle, and it could be cable, has a window to shift their rel...
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
Broadband Spring 2026 – A fine time for FWA
In this Broadband Spring report, we share a quick update on broadband industry trends from 4Q25 heading into 2026E. Industry net adds improved meaningfully in 4Q25 from a year ago but remained slightly below last year when we adjust for the loss of ACP. Net adds for the quarter were in line with the pre-pandemic norm but trailing twelve-month net adds remain below pre-pandemic levels. We take a deep-dive here into FWA’s continued strong momentum, by carrier, and how it fits into the overall broa...
- David Barden
SATS: Raising PT to $147 on adjusted SpaceX assumptions and Echostar u...
We are updating our SATS valuation to reflect 1) an updated SpaceX valuation, and 2) updated SATS’ share of SpaceX following the merger between SpaceX and xAI. We now value SpaceX at $1.25Tn for the purpose of SATS valuation. In Elon we trust. We are raising our SATS price target to $147, up from $125 previously.
- David Barden
SATS 4Q25 Quick Take: It’s all about the call
SATS reported 4Q with a few surprises both positive and negative. On the plus side SlingTV losses were better than expected and wireless EBITDA loss was much better than expected. We will discuss more on the call, but Sling was likely a function of 4Q promo pricing and wireless was a function of not paying tower companies. The negative was that after several quarters of positive wireless net adds, SATS swung to a loss in 4Q, reflecting the competitive nature of the quarter. As always, the market...
- David Barden
- David Barden
Takeaways from Metro Connect 2026 Day One
Greetings from sunny, if chilly Fort Lauderdale where we are attending Metro Connect which one of our companies described as one of the two most important infrastructure conferences of the year. We are soooo lucky not to have gotten snowed in. If you are in the northeast, please stay warm! We just wrapped Day One where we had meetings and run-ins with many, primarily, small to mid-size private fiber operators. In this short note, we present our key takeaways from our conversations at the event.
- David Barden
TMUS: Model update post CMD
TMUS recently held their Capital Markets Day (CMD) in conjunction with 4Q results. We covered key highlights from the CMD in our note published last week. Long story short, TMUS met or exceeded most of our expectations with their guidance. In this note, we cover changes to our financial estimates and compare them with consensus and guidance. We also share our trend charts for key metrics to put the current quarter in context.
- David Barden
TMUS: Seems pretty much ok after all
Following weak relative performance on a host of concerns heading into its 4Q results and CMD, we believe the company successfully, but not totally, soothed the market. What were these concerns? Weak sub growth in the face of an ascendant Verizon, falling ARPU in an intensifying competitive climate, mediocre EBITDA growth as a result of both, and cautious capital returns as a result. By and large TMUS met or exceeded, in our view, on most of these issues. The one thing people did not like? The N...
- David Barden
T-Mobile 4Q25 Quick Take: Stay tuned
T-Mobile posted 4Q results and guidance this morning ahead of their capital markets day featuring new CEO Srini Gopalan. We are sitting in the cold lobby waiting for the doors to open crunching through the numbers. TMUS is no longer guiding to subscriber growth, but rather accounts. The guidance for 900k-1MM new accounts for 2026E x 2.5 postpaid phones per account at the end of 2025 implies 2.25-2.5MM postpaid phone nets which is a bit below where the Street was thinking. This being said, TMUS h...
- Blair Levin
T Threats Limited in Senate FirstNet Hearing; House Hearing This Week
In a legislative battle pitting the interests of T v. VZ and TMUS, the Senate held a hearing last week on the reauthorization of the FirstNet Authority (FNA), with the House holding another one this coming Wednesday. In this note, we analyze the first hearing as well as a draft House bill with an eye toward whether the upcoming Congressional action is likely to change the current economics of public safety communications for T, VZ, and TMUS.
- David Barden
Not unexpectedly, SATS defaults on AMT leases – We quantify the readth...
AMT (Buy, PT $203), after the close today, shared that SATS has defaulted on its tower lease agreement payments. This was unsurprising following a similar revelation from CCI (Neutral, PT $93) on 1/12/26 (see our note). AMT says this action will have no impact on 2025 results. AMT did not mention the value of the remaining payments, but we assume it is similar to the ~$3.5bn (undiscounted) CCI cited.
- David Barden
Wireless: Key controversies heading into US wireless 4Q25 results and ...
We can’t remember a time when investors were as nervous about wireless earnings as they are going into 4Q25 results. We think this concern is by and large overblown and we will all come out feeling consoled on the other side of this earnings cycle. In this short note, we discuss the key controversies impacting the wireless sector currently and our perspective.
- Blair Levin
What’s at Stake for T (and VZ and TMUS) in the Upcoming FirstNet Autho...
Tomorrow, weather permitting, the Senate Commerce Committee will hold a hearing on the FirstNet Authority (FNA). Generally, we don’t write about Congressional hearings as they focus on sound bites rather than policy relevant to investors. Here, however, the hearing could prove market relevant. FNA has a contract with T, but Congress must act if the FNA is to be reauthorized past 2027. And the battle over the terms of that reauthorization pits T v. VZ and TMUS. In this note we provide backg...
- David Barden
The future of US wireless, right now - Extrapolating 3Q25 wireless tre...
We are taking 3Q25 results and the most recent cNPS data and laying out our latest thinking and forecasts ahead of 4Q results. We expect 4Q results and attendant 2026 guidance to contain material information value for investors and we wanted to share our latest forecasts, data, and trends as a starting point as we navigate this impactful season.
- Blair Levin
DISH Antitrust Challenge to DIS; Will Content or Distribution Gain Fle...
Earlier this month DISH filed an antitrust complaint against DIS in the latest chapter of a long running dispute over DIS’s efforts to create new sports bundles and DISH’s efforts to create new options for how its customers access programming over its platform. In this note we explore the implications of the battle, how it might affect the flexibility of content and distribution in seeking to adjust to thrive in the media world to come, and what it could tell us about the direction of media and...
- David Barden
SATS defaults on CCI leases - Quantifying the readthrough
CCI (Neutral, PT $93) after the close today announced that SATS has defaulted on its tower lease agreement payments. As a result, the company has terminated the agreement and will seek to recover ~$3.5Bn+ of the remaining undiscounted payments owed. CCI says this decision will have no impact on 2025 results. As a function of this announcement, we are taking SATS payments fully out of our model for 2026E. Previously, we had zeroed out SATS payments for only 2H26 and beyond. In this note, we shar...
- Blair Levin
Part Three of Year in Preview: Our Analysis about Policyband’s Predict...
This week we published three notes that preview what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment. In the first, we evaluated what questions do we not know the answer to today but will in a year that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In the second, we looked at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out. In this third one we evaluate nine predictions mad...
- Blair Levin
Part Two of Year in Preview: What about SATS, BEAD, Spectrum, and Othe...
This week we are publishing three notes that analyze what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment in the year ahead. In the first one, published yesterday we evaluated questions that we do not know the answer to today--but will in a year--that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In this second one, we look at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out i...
- David Barden
Towers 4Q25 Estimates & Ratings Refresh
The last 3 months have seen substantial tower price dislocation catalyzed by news that SATS intends to invoke contractual clauses and stop paying the tower industry for current leases. We highlight some key industry developments impacting sentiment and preview 4Q results based on our catch-up conversations with the companies in recent weeks.
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