reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
Broadband quick hit: Louisiana BEAD winners announced
Yesterday, Louisiana Office of Broadband Development & Connectivity announced the winners of their BEAD process. T-Mobile showed up as part of a consortium that won most of the grants, while Cable Companies and ILECs won less than we expected. In this short note, we discuss the results, compare them with estimates from our Broadband Insights database, and discuss the implications for broadband companies.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: a thought on the debt exchange
In this note we show how there is at least $0.7BN of additional value on the table that could help narrow the discount DBS bondholders are being asked to accept in order to get the DTV deal across the goal line. We also run through the differences between the four segments EchoStar reports at earnings and the four filing entities they disclose to the SEC. We also update our estimates for DBS, Dish Networks and Hughes now that their 10-Q’s have been filed.
- Jonathan Moreland
SEDG SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES INC.
SATS ECHOSTAR CORPORATION CLASS A
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
OPK OPKO HEALTH INC.
NMFC NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION
MCHX MARCHEX INC. CL B
KVHI KVH INDUSTRIES INC.
JRVR JAMES RIVER GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
HSII HEIDRICK & STRUGGLES INTERNATIONAL INC.
HASI
I3N HANNON ARMSTRONG SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL INC.
GDOT CHART INDUSTRIES INC.
EXAS GREEN DOT CORPORATION CLASS A
CROX EXACT SCIENCES CORPORATION
CNC CROCS INC.
AGCO CENTENE CORPORATION
AVNW AGCO CORPORATION
ENPH AVIAT NETWORKS
HTLD ENPHASE ENERGY INC.
ZOM HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC.
DMLP ZOMEDICA PHARMACEUTICALS CORP
MAV DORCHESTER MINERALS L.P.
HLNE PIONEER MUNICIPAL HIGH INCOME ADVANTAGE TRUST
SNBR HAMILTON LANE INCORPORATED CLASS A
MHI SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION
GNL PIONEER MUNICIPAL HIGH INCOME TRUST
BBDC GALEY & LORD INC.
CLDX BARINGS BDC INC.
ENX CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS INC.
ADV EATON VANCE NEW YORK MUNICIPAL BOND FUND
HPK ADVANTAGE SOLUTIONS INC (A)
MRVI HIGHPEAK ENERGY INC (A)
OPCH MARAVAI LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS
MODV OPTION CARE HEALTH INC
DCOM MODIVCARE INC
UAN DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES
PFBX INC.
OSCR CVR PARTNERS LP
BGS PEOPLES FINANCIAL CORP. (MISSISSIPPI)
WBD OSCAR HEALTH
TCBX B&G FOODS
BIGZ INC.
RXO_w WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY INC.
VANI THIRD COAST BANCSHARES INC
KLG_w BLACKROCK INNOVATION AND GROWTH TST
DBD RXO INC
MIO VIVANI MEDICAL INC
WPC WK KELLOGG CO
EVM DIEBOLD NIXDORF INCORPORATED
PIONEER MUN HIGH INCOME OPPORTUNITIES FD INC
W. P. CAREY AND CO. LLC
EATON VANCE INSD CALIF MUN BD FD
Moody's Ratings appends limited default (LD) to EchoStar's Caa2-PD PDR...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) appended a limited default (LD) designation to EchoStar Corporation's (EchoStar) probability of default rating (PDR), revising it to Caa2-PD/LD from Caa2-PD. This follows EchoStar's exchanges of convertible debt at the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, DISH Network Corpora...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar: quick thoughts following the call 3Q24
In this note we focus on just one thing: the fate of DBS. We will cover what we learned about the mobile business in a follow up, if we can (there wasn’t much). Based on conversations, we believe bondholders will reject the current DBS exchange offer (it expires at 5PM). The DBS merger is contingent on the exchange succeeding, and so this will fail too. We cover the implications for EchoStar, TPG, and bond holders in this note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 3Q24 Quick Take: Results not great; two of three 747s have landed...
We have updated this note for details published in the 10-Q. We have also updated the tables and charts and included them in this version. The biggest change from our initial take relates to ACP losses, which were much higher than expected. The company lost 359k ACP subs, or over 90% of the base they had at the end of 2Q24. This is worse than ACP retention seen at peers.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 3Q24 Quick Take: Results okay; two of three 747s have landed
The operating trends were mostly worse than expected, though we won’t have full visibility until the EchoStar 10-Q is filed (and we won’t have complete visibility until the DBS 10-Q is filed in about a week). Wireless net adds excluding ACP were strong. The cash balance excluding the financing from TPG was lower than we expected, but the new financing closed this morning, which will render any concerns about that moot.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Summarizing Policy Implications of Trump/Republican Victor...
In the previous two months, we published multiple notes on the implications of the election, projecting forward on what would likely happen to market impacting policies in the event of either a Trump or Harris Victory. Here, we link to those notes—you can quickly skip the Harris parts—as well as summarizing key points relating to the likely impact of a Trump victory. We note that the notes involving Musk were the ones we think most underrated (at least they were initially) and important. We a...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 3Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved quite significantly. We continue to expect further recovery next year, once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar amends DBS exchange offer
EchoStar has increased its offer to exchange certain DBS notes for new DTV notes by $0.06-$0.065, lowering the discount by about $70MM from $1.568BN to $1.499BN. We have no idea whether this is an output of discussions between bondholders and the company or whether the company is doing this unilaterally. Either way, improving the terms increases the odds of the exchange going through. Our base case remains that the deal is in the best interest of all parties and will ultimately be done.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar: Value increases following transactions (but takes longer to ...
We have updated our model for the sale of DBS and increased investment in network infrastructure and subscriber growth following the capital raise. We have also updated spectrum values for recent transactions. We are more confident than ever in the value that will be realized if spectrum is sold, though the timing of a sale has likely been pushed out. Dish could build a business that is as valuable as the spectrum, but it is tough to have confidence in this.
- Jonathan Chaplin
US Cellular Sells 850MHz Licenses to Verizon
US Cellular has sold its cellular licenses in the 850MHz band, as well as a handful of AWS and PCS licenses, to Verizon for $1 billion. The transaction isn’t a surprise; we have been expecting USM to sell all their assets (USM and TDS have been our favorite small ideas). The price was higher than expected. In this note we briefly cover implications for USM, TDS, EchoStar, and spectrum values more broadly.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Implications of Multiple Mergers at the FCC
It appears likely that within a few months, multiple transactions—TMUS buying US Cellular, VZ buying Frontier, and DISH and DirecTV merging—will be pending at the FCC. The transactions involve all four, or three (depending on how you think about it) of the national facilities based mobile carriers. Investors have asked, how will the presence of multiple transactions affect the process of approval for each other? We address that question in this note.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: What We Learned from the DBS Deal Announcements
The big news yesterday was the announcement of a series of deals related to EchoStar, DirecTV, TPG and AT&T. Our colleagues have put out a series of notes relating to what we learned on the financial front. In this quick note we review what we learned on the antitrust/regulatory front.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar transactions – they did it!
A couple of quarters ago, Dish set out to lower debt outstanding, extend maturities on the debt that remained, and put new cash on the balance sheet. They had a deadline of November 2024, when $2BN of debt at DBS matured. As we approached the deadline, investors were growing increasingly skeptical that it could be done. They did it all, and they wrapped a sale of DBS into the process. Our thoughts on the deals and the implications for EchoStar and the broader industry in this note.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
ATNI ATN INTERNATIONAL INC.
WYNN WYNN RESORTS LIMITED
STAA STAAR SURGICAL CO.
SATS ECHOSTAR CORPORATION CLASS A
NWPX NORTHWEST PIPE CO.
LVS LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP.
KRNT KORNIT DIGITAL LTD.
ITRI ITRON INC.
IRDM IRIDIUM COMMUNICATIONS INC.
HNRG HALLADOR ENERGY CO.
ELMD ELECTROMED
CVS CVS HEALTH CORPORATION
CRY CRYOLIFE INC.
BZH BEAZER HOMES USA INC.
ASPN ASPEN AEROGELS
ARDX ARDELYX INC
AMSC AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORP.
LULU LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
LEU CENTRUS ENERGY CORPORATION
NC NACCO INDUSTRIES INC. CL A
CMCL CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION
SNBR SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION
YEXT YEXT
CNX CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION
GLOB GAZIT-GLOBE LTD.
MTRX MATRIX IT LTD.
MEC MAYVILLE ENGINEERING
IGMS IGM BIOSCIENCES
PWFL POWERFLEET INC
OCN OCWEN FINANCIAL CORP.
MP MP MATERIALS CORP (A)
DFH DREAM FINDERS HOMES
LUMN LUMEN TECHNOLOGIES INC.
CSIOY CASIO COMPUTER CO
HOOD ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC
RKLB ROCKET LAB USA INC
EE EXCELERATE ENERGY INC
LASE LASER PHOTONICS CORP
CMPO COMPOSECURE INC
MPTI M TRON INDUSTRIES INC
LUNR INTUITIVE MACHINES INC
WGS GENEDX HOLDINGS CORP.
BYRN BYRNA TECHNOLOGIES INC
DAVE DAVE INC
TELO TELOMIR PHARMACEUTICALS INC
BVS BAYVIEW CAPITAL TRUST I PFD 9.76%
SNCR SYNCHRONOSS TECHNOLOGIES INC.
TECX TD GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY LEADERS CAD HEDGED INDEX ETF
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Rural Areas and the DBS Merger
One issue that keeps coming up is how the government will assess the competitive impact of the DBS merger on rural areas. A New York Times article this weekend summarized the concern many have raised. In this note, we assess what the article got right and what it missed.
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