reports
- Blair Levin
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Philip Burnett
Chapter 11 and Spectrum Values – Questions We Didn’t Get To
We hosted a call on Monday that covered our analysis of the impact of the FCC inquiries on spectrum values, and how this could change if the Company files for Chapter 11 protection. We hosted the call with Jeff Carlisle who is perhaps the leading expert on matters that sit at the intersection of telecom policy and bankruptcy. We got more questions than we could answer in the time we had, and so we covered the questions we didn’t get to in this note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
DBS also misses interest payment
Today EchoStar filed an 8-K announcing that they would not make a scheduled interest payment on DBS secured and unsecured bonds. As with the skipped interest payment at EchoStar, this triggers a 30-day grace period after which DBS will be in default. A default at DBS would also trigger a default at Dish Network Corp., based on cross-default protections in Dish Network Corp. bonds. Our quick thoughts in this (very) brief note.
- Blair Levin
Of SATS, the FCC and NextWave
Since Friday’s announcement that SATS is not making an interest payment, triggering a 30-day period that could lead to a SATS voluntary Chapter 11 proceeding, we have been in numerous talks with investors about the most notorious bankruptcy case involving the FCC and a telecom company, NextWave. In this note we quickly summarize the key lessons of that case for investors analyzing the potential implications of a SATS bankruptcy proceeding.
- Blair Levin
SATS Proceedings: First FCC Filings
As previously discussed, earlier this month, the FCC opened two proceedings that could adversely affect SATS. The opening round of filings in those proceedings ended earlier this week. In this note we review the filings to update our analysis of the likely outcome.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar: initial comments in FCC inquiries are out
There are two inquiries underway: one on the validity of the buildout extension; one exploring potential sharing in the MSS spectrum. In the first inquiry, only three parties filed in opposition – VTel, SpaceX, and SFP. The SFP filing alleges that EchoStar used “slight-of-hand” to meet buildout commitments. In the second inquiry, there were several filings from satellite companies that would like access to the spectrum (as one might expect). Our quick reaction in this brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar had a strong April (and so did everyone else)
EchoStar filed an 8-K this morning claiming that the recent FCC public notices concerning its licenses have created uncertainty, limiting its ability to continue the buildout. In addition, they disclosed strong adds in April, which is consistent with comments made by Verizon today and others at recent events. Our quick thoughts in this (very) brief note.
- Blair Levin
- Philip Burnett
More SATS v. Carr: Are the Self-Certified Licenses at Risk?
Earlier in the week we outlined the paths that the FCC is likely to take regarding SATS spectrum and how it could impact the monetization of those assets. Our analysis did not, however, discuss how the FCC Wireless Bureau public notice could affect the spectrum assets for which SATS has certified that it has met the FCC obligations but for which the FCC has not yet confirmed the certification. In this quick update, we address how the FCC process might affect SATS’ rights regarding that spectru...
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: rearchitecting the model (and a small collateral swap)
We have rearchitected the model in light of evidence of the company no longer using DBS as a source of cash for the wireless business and given changes in how the various subsidiaries are being funded following the debt raise late last year. It appears that DBS is building up cash to pay off debt in July of next year. This may require EchoStar to raise new debt in the fourth quarter of 2026 rather than during 2027. We also cover a small but interesting collateral swap between Dish Network & Echo...
- Blair Levin
SATS and Carr’s Endgame
Last week, the dominant story in our space involved the escalation of the battle between SATS and SpaceX as well as the threat to the SATS’ spectrum licenses through two FCC investigations that Chairman Carr initiated. In this note we focus on the twists and turns of those investigations and update our thoughts on the core questions that will help investors understand the path(s) forward, with endgames that can affect not just SATS but others who utilize and seek new spectrum.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
FCC Chair Escalates DISH/SpaceX battle
A few weeks ago, we analyzed the latest front in the long running battle between DISH and SpaceX. That battle has escalated, with a WSJ story describing a letter from FCC Chair Carr to DISH that appears to take SpaceX’s side and two FCC public notices that appear sympathetic to SpaceX as well. In this note, we update our analysis to reflect the letter, the public notices, and what happens going forward.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: Quick thoughts on risk to licenses from FCC action
We have received a barrage of calls and emails on the risk to Dish losing licenses following an FCC letter to the company announcing plans to investigate whether the Company has met regulatory requirements. For Blair’s last note on this topic, see here. Blair will have updated thoughts out tomorrow morning. In the meantime, we provide quick answers to the two most common questions we have been getting in this note.
- Blair Levin
The Cost of the Deal: What Does the Skydance/Paramount Situation Tell ...
Paramount is entering into mediation to resolve the litigation with President Trump and remove a barrier to FCC approval of the pending acquisition by Skydance. In this note we update our thoughts on what the deal’s process tells us about pending and future deals can expect from the government approval process.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS quick thoughts following the 4Q24 call
In this follow-up, we cover: the 2GHz appraisal and implications for spectrum value and liquidity; our updated 3.45GHz valuation; our updated thoughts on taxes in the event of a sale; the impact of the above on our target price; thoughts on EchoStar’s participation in the AWS-3 auction; comments on their direct-to-device aspirations; the fate of Hughes. We also provided updated thoughts on how investors might adjust their odds on the prospects of a spectrum sale, based on comments on the call.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 4Q24 Quick Take: Wireless has turned a corner but the road ahead ...
Wireless operating trends were better than expected. Pay-TV financials were strong. The free cash flow burn was huge due to a working capital drag that was likely driven by investments in growth in retail wireless (the Company should get this back). In addition to a detailed review of the print, in this note we cover thoughts on: 1. Whether to operate or to sell 2. The timing of a sale 3. Liquidity 4. Operating results 5. The migration of traffic onto Dish’s own network 6. The dangers of an empt...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Carriers could spend $180BN on spectrum over the next four years
In this note we cover the potential timing of all the major spectrum auctions and transactions that could occur during the current administration, the amount of financial capacity the carriers have for purchasing this spectrum, and the intrinsic value of the spectrum. The analysis has important implications for EchoStar and for the three national carriers.
- Blair Levin
DISH Challenge to Venu Succeeds: What’s Next?
This morning, we published a note on DISH’s challenge to the Venu Joint Venture. We discussed the implications of DISH’s letter to the District Court Judge who had been overseeing the case accusing the defendants of having “purchased their way out of their antitrust violation.” The letter pointed to how the joint venture harms MVPDs like DISH by forcing DISH (or Sling) to offer big bundles while offering their own “skinny” packages. The letter concluded by saying that “EchoStar is currently ev...
- Blair Levin
DISH Challenges Disney/Venu/Fubo Deal: Implications for Investors
Earlier this week, Fubo and Disney settled their disagreement over the antitrust case Fubo had filed challenging the Disney/Warner/Fox joint venture to create a streaming sports bundle called Venu. Fubo had won the first round, with the District Court finding that the joint venture violated the antitrust laws. The defendants appealed and the case was heading towards a Court of Appeals argument. The case settled, however, because Disney agreed to buy a controlling interest in Fubo as well as p...
- Blair Levin
What to Expect in 2025: The Most Consequential Year in Communications ...
Happy New Year, welcome back and we hope those in Blair’s path found shelter from the storm. 2025 will be the most consequential year in telecom and media policy since the mid-1990’s. In this note, we preview the key policy pivots we see as likely to impact the telecom and media landscape including the macro issues of taxes, tariffs, and deportations; and the sector focused issues affecting ISPs (reorientation of BEAD, USF reform, copper retirement and cybersecurity), wireless players (spectrum...
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