Sandvik AB: 1 director

A director at Sandvik AB bought 1,000,000 shares at 201.360SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

Energy Morning - 28 April 2025

Crude Sunday: time to cut costs, Equinor?

Muted 2025 growth expectations

Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Vår Energi reported Q1 results very much in line with expectations. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and maintained its dividend. Also, OKEA reported a solid Q1, with production and prices slightly above our estimates. While a technical goodwill impairment reduces its dividend basket for 2025, we view this as non-material, as we do not expect any dividends before 2027. Meanwhile, we are 5% below consensus on Q1e EBIT ahead of Equinor’s Q1 results on 30 April (07:00 CET), ...

Trelleborg (Hold, TP: SEK360.00) - Limited signs of demand weakness

Q1 adj. EBITA was bang in line with consensus and our estimates. Management guided for unchanged demand QOQ in Q2 after factoring in macro uncertainty, although recent order intake suggests to us a stronger quarter. We have lowered our 2025–2027e adj. EBITA by c2% on average (partly due to weakening FX) and cut our target price to SEK360 (390); however, with a balanced risk/reward, in our view, we reiterate our HOLD.

Steady as she goes

ENI capex cut but maintains shareholder returns

Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...

In-line report, stable demand into Q2

Solid NCS production in March

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for March showed liquids production of 1,972kboed (1.6% above its forecast) and gas production of 351mcm/d (0.4% above its forecast). Overall, production was 4.18mmboed (1.1% above its forecast), flat MOM, but down 4.9% YOY. Company-wise, the February production figures should be well known as most companies have already reported their production figures for Q1.

Equinor (Sell, TP: NOK220.00) - 5% below consensus on Q1e EBIT

We believe company-compiled consensus is too bullish on Q1e EPN liquids production (results due at 07:00 CET on 30 April); we forecast adj. EBIT of USD8.1bn (~5% below consensus of USD8.5bn), assuming EPN liquids production of 620kboed (consensus 640kboed). Official production data for total NCS liquids indicates declines of ~4% YOY and ~2% QOQ; in contrast, consensus assumes flat YOY production and a 2% QOQ increase for Equinor. We reiterate our SELL and NOK220 target price.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...