reports
- Tomi Railo
- Tomi Railo
- Tomi Railo
Medistim ASA: 1 director
A director at Medistim ASA bought 860,735 shares at 151.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 88/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
- Geir Hiller Holom
Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK172.00) - Higher sales and costs
Q4 revenue of cNOK151.1m was a quarterly record, reflecting strong growth in Americas and Europe. However, the EBIT margin was lower than expected due to various investments in the business (including the new INTUI software launch, ICC meeting and CMD in London, and patent study and recruitment costs), in addition to the temporarily higher expenses related to the recent establishment of direct sales operations. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK172 target price.
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Mixed Q4, with Services shining
We have cut our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c3% on average due to the Q4 earnings miss, our lower capital profitability forecast, and our higher financial cost estimates. We continue to believe the valuation is attractive, and reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price.
- Tomi Railo
Quality rise warrants multiples uplift
Our analysis shows that Finnish industrials have improved their earnings quality over the past 10 years, supported by expanding Service profitability and shares of total sales and earnings. We believe this together with improved stability, visibility and financials should be better rewarded in the valuations. We have a positive sector stance and highlight Konecranes, Metso and Valmet on potential multiples expansion.
- Tomi Railo
Valmet Oyj: 1 director
A director at Valmet Oyj bought 1,000 shares at 23.642EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Earnings growth needed in Q4
Following mixed Q3 results, we have tweaked our 2024–2026e clean EPS (c-1% on average). Q3 clean EBITA improved slightly YOY, but we believe a stronger improvement will be required in Q4 YOY to reach the 2024 guidance of flat clean EBITA YOY. We reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price.
- Geir Hiller Holom
Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK172.00) - Q3 report
While up 7% YOY (currency-neutral sales growth 5.3%), revenues of NOK132.8m were below our forecast of NOK136m. The EBIT margin of 24% (Q3 2023: 27%) also fell shy of our forecast of 28.6%. We still see signs that the company’s ‘going direct’ efforts should eventually bear fruit, but we now believe their effect on the revenue side and on margins will take longer to materialise than we initially expected. We also note the cardiac segment is seeing slower progress than we expected, causing us conc...
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - 2024 profit warning
We have cut our 2024–2026e clean EPS by 8% on average following Friday’s profit warning. Consensus was sceptical about the previous optimistic-looking guidance, and we expect questions to remain about the new guidance. We have cut our target price to EUR32 (35) but reiterate our BUY.
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR35.00) - Orders and earnings raise forecasts
We have raised our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c4% on average mainly due to the recent EUR1bn+ mega pulp order set to be booked in Q4. We expect Q3 orders and clean EBITA to grow YOY. Our orders are c4% below post-Q2 consensus, but clean EBITA is c5% above. We have raised our target price to EUR35 (33) and reiterate our BUY.
- Geir Hiller Holom
Medistim (Buy, TP: NOK190.00) - Record-high quarterly sales
Revenues of NOK144.9m were a quarterly record-high, up 5.5% YOY (currency-neutral sales +4.1%) and above our NOK135m estimate. The EBIT margin (28.5%) expanded further from its low in Q4 2023 (16.4%) and, while we believe it will continue to ‘normalise’, the company’s ‘going direct’ efforts will likely prevent it from rising significantly short-term. However, we believe these efforts are moving in the right direction, validating the strategy. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) but we reiterate our N...
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR33.00) - Strong H2 in the making
We have tweaked our 2024–2026e clean EPS following the Q2 results, which revealed better-than-expected orders, an increase in the overall short-term demand outlook, and the maintained 2024 guidance suggesting strong H2 clean EBITA. We reiterate our BUY and EUR33 target price.
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR33.00) - 2024 guidance raised recently
We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c10% on average following the recent (13 June) change in 2024 guidance for clean EBITA to increase (earlier ‘flat to increase’) YOY. We have raised our target price to EUR33 (30) and reiterate our BUY. In the Q2 results, we plan to focus on orders and outlook.
- Geir Hiller Holom
Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK190.00) - Sales in Americas weaken
Revenues grew 3.5% YOY in Q1 (currency-neutral total sales grew 2.2%), below our estimate c6%. The EBIT margin of 24% was almost back to normal and in our view shows the low margin in Q4 2023 (16.4%) should be seen as a one-off. However, we remain concerned about revenue growth, especially in the Americas, after the fifth consecutive quarter of declining currency-neutral sales. Thus, while we reiterate our HOLD, we have lowered our 2024–2026e sales by c3–8% and cut our target price to NOK190 (21...
- Tomi Railo
- Tomi Railo
Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Soft legacy, inorganic support
We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c1% on average, following our reduced underlying assumptions but including recently completed M&A. We reiterate our BUY and EUR30 target price. For the Q1 report, we will focus on orders, profitability and the market outlook.
- Geir Hiller Holom
Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK210.00) - Decreased EBIT margin
Revenues were down in all regions in Q4, with currency-neutral total sales down c13.7% YOY. Due to various strategic initiatives, the EBIT margin was unusually low in the quarter, but we expect it to gradually come back to ‘normal’ levels of 25–30%. However, we have lowered our sales estimates, downgraded to HOLD and lowered our target price to NOK210 (260).
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