Valmet Oyj: 1 director

A director at Valmet Oyj bought 1,000 shares at 23.642EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - Earnings growth needed in Q4

Following mixed Q3 results, we have tweaked our 2024–2026e clean EPS (c-1% on average). Q3 clean EBITA improved slightly YOY, but we believe a stronger improvement will be required in Q4 YOY to reach the 2024 guidance of flat clean EBITA YOY. We reiterate our BUY and EUR32 target price.

Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK172.00) - Q3 report

While up 7% YOY (currency-neutral sales growth 5.3%), revenues of NOK132.8m were below our forecast of NOK136m. The EBIT margin of 24% (Q3 2023: 27%) also fell shy of our forecast of 28.6%. We still see signs that the company’s ‘going direct’ efforts should eventually bear fruit, but we now believe their effect on the revenue side and on margins will take longer to materialise than we initially expected. We also note the cardiac segment is seeing slower progress than we expected, causing us conc...

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR32.00) - 2024 profit warning

We have cut our 2024–2026e clean EPS by 8% on average following Friday’s profit warning. Consensus was sceptical about the previous optimistic-looking guidance, and we expect questions to remain about the new guidance. We have cut our target price to EUR32 (35) but reiterate our BUY.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR35.00) - Orders and earnings raise forecasts

We have raised our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c4% on average mainly due to the recent EUR1bn+ mega pulp order set to be booked in Q4. We expect Q3 orders and clean EBITA to grow YOY. Our orders are c4% below post-Q2 consensus, but clean EBITA is c5% above. We have raised our target price to EUR35 (33) and reiterate our BUY.

Medistim (Buy, TP: NOK190.00) - Record-high quarterly sales

Revenues of NOK144.9m were a quarterly record-high, up 5.5% YOY (currency-neutral sales +4.1%) and above our NOK135m estimate. The EBIT margin (28.5%) expanded further from its low in Q4 2023 (16.4%) and, while we believe it will continue to ‘normalise’, the company’s ‘going direct’ efforts will likely prevent it from rising significantly short-term. However, we believe these efforts are moving in the right direction, validating the strategy. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) but we reiterate our N...

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR33.00) - Strong H2 in the making

We have tweaked our 2024–2026e clean EPS following the Q2 results, which revealed better-than-expected orders, an increase in the overall short-term demand outlook, and the maintained 2024 guidance suggesting strong H2 clean EBITA. We reiterate our BUY and EUR33 target price.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR33.00) - 2024 guidance raised recently

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c10% on average following the recent (13 June) change in 2024 guidance for clean EBITA to increase (earlier ‘flat to increase’) YOY. We have raised our target price to EUR33 (30) and reiterate our BUY. In the Q2 results, we plan to focus on orders and outlook.

Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK190.00) - Sales in Americas weaken

Revenues grew 3.5% YOY in Q1 (currency-neutral total sales grew 2.2%), below our estimate c6%. The EBIT margin of 24% was almost back to normal and in our view shows the low margin in Q4 2023 (16.4%) should be seen as a one-off. However, we remain concerned about revenue growth, especially in the Americas, after the fifth consecutive quarter of declining currency-neutral sales. Thus, while we reiterate our HOLD, we have lowered our 2024–2026e sales by c3–8% and cut our target price to NOK190 (21...

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Q1 on the weak side

Following a mixed but negatively skewed overall Q1, we have lowered our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c4% on average. We reiterate our BUY and EUR30 target price.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Soft legacy, inorganic support

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c1% on average, following our reduced underlying assumptions but including recently completed M&A. We reiterate our BUY and EUR30 target price. For the Q1 report, we will focus on orders, profitability and the market outlook.

Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK210.00) - Decreased EBIT margin

Revenues were down in all regions in Q4, with currency-neutral total sales down c13.7% YOY. Due to various strategic initiatives, the EBIT margin was unusually low in the quarter, but we expect it to gradually come back to ‘normal’ levels of 25–30%. However, we have lowered our sales estimates, downgraded to HOLD and lowered our target price to NOK210 (260).

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Solid Q4, optimism for 2024

We have raised our 2024–2025e clean EBITA by c2% on average, after an in-line Q4 as well as a reiterated outlook and a solid 2024 guidance. Our 3% clean EPS cuts relate to higher than estimated financial costs. We have raised our target price to EUR30 (28) and reiterate our BUY.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Focus on orders and guidance

Our 2024–2025e clean EPS is unchanged ahead of the Q4 results, due at 12:00 CET on 7 February, followed by a briefing at 13:00 CET. In the report we will focus on orders, the 2024 market outlook and guidance. We expect Valmet to guide for flat or slightly declining sales and clean EBITA YOY (organically down, but with support from M&A). We have raised our target price to EUR30 (28) and reiterate our BUY.

Medistim (Buy, TP: NOK260.00) - Currency tailwind

Medistim’s Q3 sales growth of 6.5% YOY was helped by favourable currency. Currency-neutral sales growth was negative, especially in the Americas, causing us to cut our sales estimates (especially in this region). Following adjustments of our sales forecasts, we have lowered our target price to NOK260 (290), but reiterate our BUY.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR28.00) - Widespread order misses

Following weaker-than-expected orders in Q3, including high-profitability businesses Services and Automation, we have cut our 2024–2025e clean EPS by c6%. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to EUR28 (30).

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Focus on orders and outlook

In the upcoming Q3 results, we plan to focus on orders and market outlook commentary. We have made minor 2023–2025e clean EPS changes but have cut our target price to EUR30 (34). We reiterate our BUY as we see upside potential from the currently depressed share price and valuation.

Northern Lights

Medistim (Buy, TP: NOK290.00) - Growth boosted by currency effects

Medistim reported Q2 sales and EBIT above our estimates, but the company benefited from favourable currency effects. Despite the temporarily increased expenses related to the establishment of direct-sales operations, the EBIT margin remained above 30%. We reiterate our BUY and NOK290 target price.

Northern Lights