Mengniu’s 2025 core net profit was Rmb3,960m (-11% yoy). Ytd, liquid milk revenue has achieved high single-digit growth, driven by increases in both volume and price. For 2026, management has prioritised revenue growth, targeting mid-singledigit growth, and it also aims to maintain a stable or slightly improved operating margin. It has introduced a three-year shareholder return plan (2025-27), targeting steady DPS growth while maintaining share buybacks. Maintain BUY and raise target price by 7%...
Top Stories Company Results | China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$16.32/Target: HK$23.20) Mengniu’s 2025 core net profit was Rmb3,960m (-11% yoy). Ytd, liquid milk revenue has achieved high single-digit growth, driven by increases in both volume and price. For 2026, management has prioritised revenue growth, targeting mid-single-digit growth, and it also aims to maintain a stable or slightly improved operating margin. It has introduced a three-year shareholder return plan (2025-27), targeting s...
Greater China Company Results | China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$16.32/Target: HK$23.20) Mengniu’s 2025 core net profit was Rmb3,960m (-11% yoy). Ytd, liquid milk revenue has achieved high single-digit growth, driven by increases in both volume and price. For 2026, management has prioritised revenue growth, targeting mid-single-digit growth, and it also aims to maintain a stable or slightly improved operating margin. It has introduced a three-year shareholder return plan (2025-27), targeting ...
Greater China Company Results | ZTE Corporation (763 HK/HOLD/HK$25.42/Target: HK$23.20) ZTE's FY25 results were below expectations, with full-year reported net profit declining 33.3% yoy to Rmb5.6b, significantly below consensus estimates of Rmb8.3b. The miss is primarily driven by a continued deterioration in product mix, as the high-margin carrier network business continued to decline amid weak telco spending, while the growth is supported by the low-margin government & corporate segment, resu...
Mengniu’s 2025 revenue is expected to fall 7-8% yoy, largely in line with VA consensus. Operating margin is expected to be 7.9-8.1%, down 0.1-0.3ppt yoy, slightly below the target of a yoy flat operating margin but higher than VA consensus of 7.6%. After excluding the impact of expected impairment provisions, we estimate core net profit to reach around Rmb3.5b, compared with the VA consensus of Rmb4.0b. Maintain BUY; target price unchanged at HK$21.70.
Top Stories Company Results | ZTE Corporation (763 HK/HOLD/HK$25.42/Target: HK$23.20) ZTE's FY25 results were below expectations, with full-year reported net profit declining 33.3% yoy to Rmb5.6b, significantly below consensus estimates of Rmb8.3b. The miss is primarily driven by a continued deterioration in product mix, as the high-margin carrier network business continued to decline amid weak telco spending, while the growth is supported by the low-margin government & corporate segment, resul...
The CNY consumption data exhibited accelerated growth momentum compared with the two Golden Weeks last year, which we view as early signs of a broader consumption recovery. We favour companies benefitting from: a) segments showing initial signals of recovery, such as restaurants; b) exposure to China’s structural consumption growth drivers, particularly in services and experiential consumption; c) potential policy tailwinds; and d) overseas growth. Our preferred stocks include Anta, CR Beer, CTG...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed names and segments include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands China. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
We observed the following trends in holiday consumption: a) jewellery performed well on rising gold prices; b) retail and catering consumption was modest, with growth decelerating from that during the 2025 Spring Festival and Labour Day; c) specialty retail (duty-free) saw per capita spending improve; and d) consumers continued to show enthusiasm for tourism and leisure spending, with domestic long-haul travel and outbound travel gaining popularity. The lower-than-expected Macau visitor arrivals...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
On 16 Sep 25, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other government departments jointly issued a plan to expand service consumption. This plan introduces 19 measures focusing on five areas. We highlight IP-related consumption and tourism as the two primary themes positioned to benefit the most. In addition, the government plans to optimise student vacation schedules by exploring the possibility of shortening winter and summer vacations while introducing spring and autumn vacations to increase the ...
In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
Mengniu’s 1H25 revenue slightly missed but operating profit beat expectations. Liquid milk revenue fell 11% yoy, mainly due to weak terminal sell-through. Management now expects revenue to fall by mid-to-high single digits in 2025, which, per our estimates, implies a slight narrowing in the yoy decline in 2H25 vs 1H25. Operating margin is expected to remain stable in 2025. Raw milk supply and demand dynamics may take a longer time to reach a balance. Maintain BUY; cut target price by 6% to HK$21...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Market Strategy “Anti-involution” is now a policy focus after President Xi Jinping vowed to manage “disorderly competition” during the CFEAC meeting in July. The concept covers a broader area than the 2016-17 supply-side reform, but we expect the government to address excess supply issues and encourage competition through quality and technology upgrades rather than price-cutting. Sector leaders with scale and R&D depth will consolidate their market shares and emerge win...
GREATER CHINA Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$15.84/Target: HK$21.70) 1H25: Revenue slightly misses but operating profit beats; expect mid-to-high single-digit revenue decline for 2025. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$19.05/Target: HK$22.60) 1H25: In line; from earnings drag to guidance-driven re-rating; upgrade to BUY. ECARX Holdings Inc (ECX US/BUY/US$1.60/Target: US$3.40) 2Q25: Net loss widens; recovery expected in 2H25. Maintain...
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