During the Labour Day holiday, tourism and catering continued to record strong performances, while DF per capita spending showed a downward trend. We reiterate our key theses for the consumer sector, highlighting companies with: a) overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) upside potential of improving operating efficiency, or c) near-term catalysts. We keep Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou as our most preferred stocks, but remove Galaxy from the stock picks. Mainta...
In this report, we have summarised what we read from consumer companies’ 2023 results, the 2024 outlook and recent updates. We think companies: a) with overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) that have upside potential of improving operating efficiency, c) that will benefit from near-term catalysts (eg event-driven), and d) have increasing dividend payout will outperform. Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou are our most preferred stocks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Mengniu’s 2023 earnings missed our estimates due to a one-off write-off related to its associates and a withholding tax from dividend distribution. Management guided for 2024 revenue to grow by low- to mid-single-digit and OPM expansion of 30-50bp yoy, thanks to product mix upgrade and lower raw milk prices. Although the change of CEO is positive to its long-term goals, it creates additional uncertainties over Mengniu’s strategic implementation amid the weak market. Maintain BUY. Cut target pric...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results BYD Company (1211 HK/SELL/HK$201.60/Target: HK$140.00) 4Q23: Earnings up 19% yoy but down 17% qoq, in line. Management guides for flat earnings in 2024. Maintain SELL. Target price: HK$140.00. China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$17.08/Target: HK$22.50) 2023: Missed estimates on one-off loss; weak demand to persist in the near term. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$30.95/Target: HK$44.00) 2023: Rise to the occasion. Country Garden Services (6098 HK/HOLD/HK$5.27...
During the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, tourism, both domestic and outbound, catering and movie consumption put up strong performances. For the consumer sector, we prefer discretionary to staple, and Macau gaming in the discretionary space, given the strong recovery momentum of Macau tourism and moderate hike in opex. Galaxy is our top pick in Macau gaming sector, given its net cash position amid the higher interests. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
We turn conservative on dairy companies’ top-line growth guidance for 2024, as we expect consumption to slow down in the discretionary segment while distributors are lacking enthusiasm in placing orders. We expect modest gross margin expansion, while companies may still achieve net profit margin expansion from disciplined investment and targeted marketing in 2024. Downgrade the dairy sector to MARKET WEIGHT. We switch our top pick to Yili.
A director at China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited sold 495,000 shares at 26.330HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the l...
During the Golden Week holiday, domestic tourism and catering recovery were on track while duty-free sales recovery was still weak. We prefer sportswear in the discretionary space, given the decent sales momentum during the holiday (Anta: in line with internal targets; Xtep: 20% yoy growth), and baijiu in the staples space, given baijiu’s strong brand power. We prefer Anta in the sportswear sector, given its multiple catalysts, and Moutai in the baijiu sector, for its highest earnings visibility...
Mengniu reported in-line results in 1H23. Liquid milk sales were up 5% yoy, with Milk Deluxe and Fresh Meadow up double-digits yoy in 1H23. Management continues to push for premiumisation, driven by higher-value offerings, and expects a price hike in Milk Deluxe’ highest-end product. It expects full-year revenue growth to fall at the lower end of guided range, and expects gross margin gains to flow through OPM expansion (+50bp yoy). Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$39.30.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Further moderation in manufacturing contraction; policy support necessary Sector Aviation Airlines still loss-making but improving; expecting a turnaround in 2H23. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Internet China e-commerce seeking growth through international market expansion. Property Demand-side policy easing more strongly than expected; top pick: COLI. Results Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH/BUY/Rmb6.11/Target: Rmb7.10) 1H23: Below expectations; gearing up for the grow...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines still loss-making but improving; expecting a turnaround in 2H23. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$26.40/Target: HK$39.30): 1H23: In line; expecting a smooth price hike. Estun Automation (002747 CH/BUY/Rmb23.23/Target: Rmb31.50): 2Q23: Earnings impacted by forex loss, but robot business remains solid. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/SELL/HK$9.30/Target: HK$5.20): 2Q23: Results rebound qoq, but 1H23 earnings still fall short of tar...
We visited Mengniu’s first fully intelligent factory and met with the senior management in Yinchuan, Ningxia. Overall ytd top-line performance was in line with its 2023 growth guidance in the mid-single digits yoy, and management’s full-year guidance was unchanged. Mengniu will continue to lead in the UHT milk market with its high-end Deluxe brand while efforts in product mix upgrade (ie promoting Selection Meadow) will lift its gross margin. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$39....
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly The only Hong Kong-listed luxury brand name, recent share price pullback offers a good entry point. Sector Commodities Weekly: US dollar strengthens on hawkish Fed expectations; rebar price plunges to lowest level since Apr 17. Update China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$30.20/Target: HK$39.30) Takeaways from Mengniu factory visit; full-year guidance unchanged. TRADERS’ CORNER CNOOC LTD. (883 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$12.10-12.32 Huaneng Power I...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly: The only Hong Kong-listed luxury brand name, recent share price pullback offers a good entry point. Sector Commodities: Weekly: US dollar strengthens on hawkish Fed expectations; rebar price plunges to lowest level since Apr 17. Update China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$30.20/Target: HK$39.30): Takeaways from Mengniu factory visit; full-year guidance unchanged. INDONESIA Update Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Syariah (BTPS IJ/BUY/Rp1,970/Target: ...
We expect to see periodical opportunities in the following months due to the slow pace of consumption recovery and lack of incremental funds. We suggest paying more attention when the share prices dip to a low level that is close to the bottoms in Apr/Oct-Nov 22. We are confident on domestic sportswear leaders’ future growth from the increasing demand for professional sports products against the partially recovered purchasing power. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
In spite of the limited funds in the market, we believe that consumer names’ investment opportunities still exist after share prices factored in rational expectations. We expect players with high earnings visibility and/or faster-than-expected growth pace (ie Moutai, Anta and CR Beer) to remain attractive for investment against a relatively weak consumption recovery background. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
Mengniui’s revenue grew 5.1% yoy, and its attributable net profit grew 5.5% yoy in 2022. 2H22 EBIT margin widened 1.5ppt yoy and drove 2022 EBIT margin to expand 0.3ppt yoy. Although management has guided cautious top-line growth, we believe Mengniu is still worth investing in after its share price correction given a potential robust operating margin expansion of 30-50bp in 2023 and thereafter, which we think is achievable. Maintain BUY and trim target price to HK$39.30.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.07/Target: HK$6.06) 2022: Results in line; expect NIM compression to continue in 2023. China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$32.60/Target: HK$39.30) 2022: Results below expectations; upbeat on future margin expansion. China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK/BUY/HK$7.26/Target: HK$10.50) 2022: Earnings growth beats expectations; TCM granule business continues to drive growth. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/SELL/HK$49.45/Target: HK$35.00) ...
GREATER CHINA Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.07/Target: HK$6.06): 2022: Results in line; expect NIM compression to continue in 2023. China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$32.60/Target: HK$39.30): 2022: Results below expectations; upbeat on future margin expansion. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/SELL/HK$49.45/Target: HK$35.00): 4Q22: Earnings missed our estimates; maintain SELL. Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK/SELL/HK$4.99/Target: HK$4.00): 4Q22: Results grossly missed estimates. Ma...
While we think the road ahead to an overall consumption recovery is still bumpy despite the RSV pickup in 2M23, we are upbeat on the wealthy group’s sustainable consumption ability and the future growth of China’s luxury and duty-free markets. We believe the duty-free market will grow at a faster pace than the overall luxury market in China. CTGDF will be the largest beneficiary of the government’s intention to nurture it into a super strong duty-free leader globally. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the ...
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