Greater China Economics | Economic Activity Economic activity in 2M26 broadly surprised to the upside. Industrial production accelerated to 6.3% yoy, while retail sales recovered to 2.8% yoy. FAI ytd rebounded to 1.8% yoy, beating expectations of a contraction, supported by strong infrastructure spending and a marked improvement in property FAI ytd to −11.1% yoy. However, it remains to be seen if the rebound is sustainable, as February’s PMI remained in contractionary territory at 49.0. Se...
Strategy | Feedback From Taipei Trip Investor tone has shifted from expectations of rate cuts toward rising inflationary concerns, making the upcoming post-1Q26 earnings results a key focus for the market. Feedback from our Taiwan trip suggests a broadly cautious stance, with most investors remaining in a wait-and-see mode until there is clearer improvement across macro conditions, fiscal outlook, and IDX-specific issues. In this environment of high oil prices and a strong DXY, our preferred pic...
Strategy | Feedback From Taipei Trip Investor tone has shifted from expectations of rate cuts toward rising inflationary concerns, making the upcoming post-1Q26 earnings results a key focus for the market. Feedback from our Taiwan trip suggests a broadly cautious stance, with most investors remaining in a wait-and-see mode until there is clearer improvement across macro conditions, fiscal outlook, and IDX-specific issues. In this environment of high oil prices and a strong DXY, our preferred pic...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls Chinese equities consolidated further in February, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 2.8% mom and 5.6% mom, respectively. March is expected to be volatile, as there are signs that the Middle East conflict could last for a while. We focus on names which have greater domestic exposure, adding Anta, China Duty Free, FII, Futu, Kuaishou and Tencent to our BUY list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: Rotating To Commodities Amid M...
Sector Update | Oil & Gas Indonesia’s upstream revival is gaining momentum as structural import dependence drives policy support and “animal spirits” across operators. Pertamina anchors a multi-year growth cycle with rising production, expanding capex, and restructuring backed by Danantara. Listed beneficiaries such as ELSA, ENRG, WINS, SOCI, RAJA, RATU, and PGAS offer exposure across upstream services, offshore logistics, and gas infrastructure as sector activity improves. Highlights • Upstrea...
Sector Update | Oil & Gas Indonesia’s upstream revival is gaining momentum as structural import dependence drives policy support and “animal spirits” across operators. Pertamina anchors a multi-year growth cycle with rising production, expanding capex, and restructuring backed by Danantara. Listed beneficiaries such as ELSA, ENRG, WINS, SOCI, RAJA, RATU, and PGAS offer exposure across upstream services, offshore logistics, and gas infrastructure as sector activity improves. Technical Analysis H...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Strong Performance In December The JCI closed strong at the end of Dec 25 (+1.6% mom, +22.1% yoy). Our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 17.7% mom, driven by ENRG, DEWA, ARCI, JPFA, and ASSA, while MDKA was flat and TLKM and BBCA underperformed. We maintain our portfolio focus on US dollar-linked earnings and resilient bottom-up picks. We drop DEWA as it has reached our target price, and add HRUM and NCKL. Highlights • The JCI closed strong at the end of Dec 25 (+1.6% mo...
Economics | Indonesia Economy 2026: The Path To Igniting "Animal Spirits" Our baseline 2026 outlook forecasts a moderate 5.3% GDP growth and a mildly weaker rupiah (~Rp 16,900/USD). However, a credible alternative “animal spirits” scenario exists. This could be triggered by FDI surges into minerals, aggressive reforms, foreign borrowing and a supportive global backdrop of Fed easing, and could spark a positive feedback loop, strengthening the rupiah to Rp15,600-15,800. This optimistic path, whil...
Greater China Sector Update | IT Hardware We see an acceleration in China’s AI development progress in 2026, with NVIDIA successfully obtaining the US government’s approval on H200 sales to China, which will provide a major boost to the Chinese the AI application users. We also believe that the shipment volume of domestic AI chips will receive minimal impact, with foreign chips acting as a “demand gap filler” while the establishment of a capable local supply chain remains the highest priorit...
Greater China Economics | Inflation November CPI inflation strengthened to 0.7% yoy (+0.5ppt mom), the highest since Feb 24, led by food inflation turning positive. Core inflation stayed at a year-high of 1.2% yoy, with goods inflation rising, but with services inflation easing slightly. PPI deflation deepened to -2.2% yoy (-0.1ppt mom), as raw materials’ inflation weakened despite notable gains in mining and quarrying. Overall, the persistent PPI deflation reflects the ongoing impact of weak en...
Company Update | Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ/BUY/Rp1,415/Target: Rp1,700) ENRG announced a new gas discovery at Sengkang, delivering 25-36 mmcfd (equivalent to 13-19% of 2025’s total production).This is expected to lift production by 10 mmcfd in 2028, 25 mmcfd in 2029, and 40 mmcfd in 2030 (3-11% above our original forecasts), with a first phase capex of US$30m. JAPEX has formally joined as ENRG’s 50% partner in Gebang, strengthening ENRG’s upstream portfolio. We maintain BUY with a higher targ...
Company Update | Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ/BUY/Rp1,415/Target: Rp1,700) ENRG announced a new gas discovery at Sengkang, delivering 25-36 mmcfd (equivalent to 13-19% of 2025’s total production).This is expected to lift production by 10 mmcfd in 2028, 25 mmcfd in 2029, and 40 mmcfd in 2030 (3-11% above our original forecasts), with a first phase capex of US$30m. JAPEX has formally joined as ENRG’s 50% partner in Gebang, strengthening ENRG’s upstream portfolio. We maintain BUY with a higher targ...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Bias Positive, Adding BBCA, DEWA, TLKM The JCI rebounded strongly in November, supported by improved liquidity, risk-on sentiment, and US$730m foreign inflows. Our portfolio lagged (+0.8% vs JCI’s +4.0%) due to weakness in AADI, JPFA, MDKA, and ADRO. While December historically delivers positive returns, its reliability now hinges more on liquidity and global risk appetite. We turn selective, removing AADI and ADRO due to coal-duty uncertainty, and adding BBCA, T...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut improved sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Jacobson,...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Bias Positive, Adding BBCA, DEWA, TLKM The JCI rebounded strongly in November, supported by improved liquidity, risk-on sentiment, and US$730m foreign inflows. Our portfolio lagged (+0.8% vs JCI’s +4.0%) due to weakness in AADI, JPFA, MDKA, and ADRO. While December historically delivers positive returns, its reliability now hinges more on liquidity and global risk appetite. We turn selective, removing AADI and ADRO due to coal-duty uncertainty, and adding BBCA, T...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Another Outperformance In October In Oct 25, our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 11.1%. All of our stock picks saw positive gains, with ASSA seeing the most at +26.8%. Events to look out are the MSCI rebalancing announcement on 5 November, and BI’s rate decision on 19 Nov 25. We maintain exposure to gold and US dollar earners, and add JPFA for its solid 2H25 growth. Our Alpha Picks: AADI, ASSA, ADRO, ARCI ENRG, JPFA and MDKA. Highlights • Our stock portfolio outperfo...
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Another Outperformance In October In Oct 25, our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 11.1%. All of our stock picks saw positive gains, with ASSA seeing the most at +26.8%. Events to look out are the MSCI rebalancing announcement on 5 November, and BI’s rate decision on 19 Nov 25. We maintain exposure to gold and US dollar earners, and add JPFA for its solid 2H25 growth. Our Alpha Picks: AADI, ASSA, ADRO, ARCI ENRG, JPFA and MDKA. Company Results | GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (G...
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