Energy Morning - 31 March 2025

Nel: USD6m PEM order

Yesterday evening, Nel announced it had received a USD6m PEM order from Collins Aerospace on the back of its long-lasting and exclusive supply agreement for prolonged underwater submarine operation equipment. Deliveries will take place over several years starting in late 2025. This capitalises on P

Energy Morning - 28 March 2025

Energy Morning - 12 March 2025

Expanding reach and extending liquidity

Cash preservation mode

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK1.50) - Backlog appears lighter than air

Q4 results were decent, and cash burn below our expectation. However, we expect falling revenue in 2025 and losses to widen again. In addition, the backlog continues to slide and 40% is at “significant risk of delay or cancellation”. Excluding the “significant risk” portion, the backlog is 60% below its peak in 2023. Only 46% of consensus 2025 revenue is covered by backlog, while comparable figures have been 60–110% over the past five years. The prospect pipeline consists mainly of smaller proje...

Nel: FY24 results, poor visibility FY25

NEL has reported FY24 revenues below consensus expectations at NOK1.39bn (+3% YoY, -3% vs cons. at NOK1.43bn), but a slightly better than expected EBITDA loss of -NOK173m (+9% vs cons. at -NOK191m), vs -NOK272m in FY23. Q4 dynamics followed a fairly similar pace to previous quarters, supported by a

Very low backlog for 2025

Energy Morning - 26 February 2025

Renewable Weekly – 20 February 2025

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Renewable Weekly – 27 January 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK1.50) - Haunted by reality

While we appreciate the efforts to minimise cash burn, the lack of new orders, temporary production halt and process to re-claim unpaid equipment are a stark reminder of the challenges. Being in cash-burn mode, we see investors shifting valuation focus to cash per share. It has a decent runway through 2026, which could result in share price volatility. Trading at a 95% premium to last reported cash per share and a premium EV/sales to its closest peer, we reiterate our SELL and have lowered our t...

Energy Morning - 14 January 2025

Nel: USD29m additional ITC for Michigan expansion

Yesterday, Nel announced it has been awarded additional support under the IRA 48C programme, managed by the US DoE, the US DoT and the IRS, regarding its 4GW electrolyser production plant project in Michigan. Based on this, up to USD29m in additional investment tax credit (ITC) will conditionally b

Energy Morning - 13 January 2025

Renewable Weekly – 28 Nov 2024

On aggregate, the R&C stocks underperformed (equal weight) the MSCI Nordic by ~4% throughout the reporting season (15 October to today).

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK2.00) - Valuation premium remains

Nel’s valuation remains at a premium to key European peer Nucera, despite the stock trading down 54% YTD and 33% in the past month. For its large uncollected receivables, a social media update suggests a delayed startup of a likely involved project (2028), making it challenging for Nel to collect. Hence, it may re-sell the equipment, a scenario it previously mentioned. Regardless of a more upbeat management, new orders have been absent. Should it secure meaningful new orders, we see potential fo...

Renewable Weekly – 11 November 2024

Renewable Weekly – 1 November 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.