Nel (Sell, TP: NOK1.50) - In hope they trust

Q1 revenue missed consensus by 29% and our estimate by 38%. Despite industry-wide challenges, Nel remains optimistic on new orders – although it last booked a sizeable order in late-2022. On the positive side, cash of NOK2.1bn provides investors with decent time optionality awaiting a better market (we do not expect a liquidity injection), added to which it has a good technology track record and know-how. We reiterate our SELL and NOK1.5 target price.

Full stop in Alkaline

Energy Morning - 30 April 2025

Nel: poor Q1 results

This morning, Nel has reported Q1 2025 revenue at NOK155m (-63% QoQ, -44% YoY), 37% below cons. at NOK245m. The quarter was impacted by temporary production halts, with a significant slowdown in the alkaline division negatively impacting (-69% YoY) the scale and the revenue mix. EBITDA loss stood a

Q1 weaker, no improvements in sight

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK1.50) - No signs of life on the horizon

With no meaningful orders secured since late 2022, weak backlog coverage for 2025e, production facility shut-ins, an uncertain market outlook, and further uncertainties related to its US expansion plans, challenging times are set to remain. While we are in line with consensus ahead of the Q1 report, our 2025e revenues and EBTIDA are 30% and 52% below consensus, respectively, with weak backlog coverage even on our estimates. Focus ahead should be on maintaining the liquidity runway and any equity...

In a tough spot

Energy Morning - 31 March 2025

Nel: USD6m PEM order

Yesterday evening, Nel announced it had received a USD6m PEM order from Collins Aerospace on the back of its long-lasting and exclusive supply agreement for prolonged underwater submarine operation equipment. Deliveries will take place over several years starting in late 2025. This capitalises on P

Energy Morning - 28 March 2025

Energy Morning - 12 March 2025

Expanding reach and extending liquidity

Cash preservation mode

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK1.50) - Backlog appears lighter than air

Q4 results were decent, and cash burn below our expectation. However, we expect falling revenue in 2025 and losses to widen again. In addition, the backlog continues to slide and 40% is at “significant risk of delay or cancellation”. Excluding the “significant risk” portion, the backlog is 60% below its peak in 2023. Only 46% of consensus 2025 revenue is covered by backlog, while comparable figures have been 60–110% over the past five years. The prospect pipeline consists mainly of smaller proje...

Nel: FY24 results, poor visibility FY25

NEL has reported FY24 revenues below consensus expectations at NOK1.39bn (+3% YoY, -3% vs cons. at NOK1.43bn), but a slightly better than expected EBITDA loss of -NOK173m (+9% vs cons. at -NOK191m), vs -NOK272m in FY23. Q4 dynamics followed a fairly similar pace to previous quarters, supported by a

Very low backlog for 2025

Energy Morning - 26 February 2025

Renewable Weekly – 20 February 2025

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Renewable Weekly – 27 January 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK1.50) - Haunted by reality

While we appreciate the efforts to minimise cash burn, the lack of new orders, temporary production halt and process to re-claim unpaid equipment are a stark reminder of the challenges. Being in cash-burn mode, we see investors shifting valuation focus to cash per share. It has a decent runway through 2026, which could result in share price volatility. Trading at a 95% premium to last reported cash per share and a premium EV/sales to its closest peer, we reiterate our SELL and have lowered our t...