Reported Q3 EBITDA of NOK-90m was far below consensus (NOK-61m) and our estimate (NOK-69m). The backlog keeps declining, and cash burn continues to exceed our expectations. Still, management remains hopeful, guiding for significantly improved EBITDA in Q4 and sees signs of a market recovery. Nel plans to increase focus on costs and expects 50% lower capex YOY. We had expected even lower 2025 capex, as capacity expansion projects in Norway and the US are completed, and we have thus increased our ...
This morning, Nel has reported Q3 2024 revenue at NOK366m (+10% QoQ, +21% YoY), 11.5% below cons. at NOK408m. Another sequential improvement is expected in Q4 (YTD at NOK974m, vs FY24 cons. at NOK1,513m). The quarter followed a pace fairly similar pace to Q2 2024, however with a positive mix effect
While management has remained optimistic, orders have been few and far between, and most recently a large capacity reservation agreement was cancelled. We see growing impairment risk, as payments from one of its largest clients still appear to be missing (c30% booked 2023 revenues). Focus ahead will be to minimise cost burn, while still searching for new orders to support utilisation of its recent capacity additions. We reiterate our SELL, with a reduced target price of NOK3 (3.5).
Yesterday, Nel announced the cancellation of its multi-year capacity reservation agreement (CRA) with Hy Stor Energy. Signed in April 2024, this agreement represented more than 1GW of alkaline electrolyser capacity combined over 2025/2027. The project was not accounted for in Nel's backlog as it wa
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