Energy Morning - 3 July 2025

Implied rig pricing in the 30s

Energy Morning - 6 June 2025

Energy Morning - 2 June 2025

Headline EBITDA 6% above

Energy Morning - 27 May 2025

Needs to lock in 2026

Offshore Drilling (DNB Markets) (, ) - (39 pages)

Energy Morning - 5 May 2025

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK1.50) - In hope they trust

Q1 revenue missed consensus by 29% and our estimate by 38%. Despite industry-wide challenges, Nel remains optimistic on new orders – although it last booked a sizeable order in late-2022. On the positive side, cash of NOK2.1bn provides investors with decent time optionality awaiting a better market (we do not expect a liquidity injection), added to which it has a good technology track record and know-how. We reiterate our SELL and NOK1.5 target price.

Energy Morning - 2 May 2025

Full stop in Alkaline

Energy Morning - 30 April 2025

Nel: poor Q1 results

This morning, Nel has reported Q1 2025 revenue at NOK155m (-63% QoQ, -44% YoY), 37% below cons. at NOK245m. The quarter was impacted by temporary production halts, with a significant slowdown in the alkaline division negatively impacting (-69% YoY) the scale and the revenue mix. EBITDA loss stood a

Q1 weaker, no improvements in sight

Another round of Aramco suspensions expected

Market sources suggest Saudi Aramco will further reduce its rig count in the coming months through early contract terminations and potentially more suspensions, which would mark the ‘fourth round’ of rig reductions. This follows last month’s request for dayrate discussions (historically, such requests have preceded it suspending rigs). We believe this round could be extensive, affecting c10 jackups out of its current rig count of c57 rigs. At the peak, Aramco had 92 jackups (22% of global demand...

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK1.50) - No signs of life on the horizon

With no meaningful orders secured since late 2022, weak backlog coverage for 2025e, production facility shut-ins, an uncertain market outlook, and further uncertainties related to its US expansion plans, challenging times are set to remain. While we are in line with consensus ahead of the Q1 report, our 2025e revenues and EBTIDA are 30% and 52% below consensus, respectively, with weak backlog coverage even on our estimates. Focus ahead should be on maintaining the liquidity runway and any equity...

Muted 2025 growth expectations

Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...

ENI capex cut but maintains shareholder returns

Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...

Welcomed tender from Petrobras

Updates suggest Petrobras yesterday launched a new tender for “one or more” deepwater rigs for the Buzios field starting late-2026/early-2027. As it has been a while since the last Petrobras tender, and there has been uncertainty related to the timing of upcoming tenders, we believe a new Petrobras tender would offer relief for investors. As we count nine rigs already contracted with Petrobras to match the start-up window, we expect the requirement would be filled by rigs already in the country,...

In a tough spot