HEADLINES: • Bank of Cyprus: income on tap, with rerating potential (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: 2025-27E strategic targets • Auto Partner: final 4Q24 results slightly above the prelims NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: 1Q25 traffic – a strong start to the year POSITIVE • Greece macro: improvements in 1Q • Hungary macro: duality in the economy continues • Wirtualna Polska: Warner Bros. Discovery keeps TVN POSITIVE • DataWalk: issues 750,000 shares at PLN 77.76/share POSITIVE • Alior Bank: 1Q25E preview (...
Yesterday (14 April), after the market closed, Bank Pekao published its 2025-27E strategic targets. The bank is targeting a minimum 18% ROE, with a maximum 35% C/I ratio and the COR falling into a range of 65-75bps. The dividend policy has been kept unchanged with regards to the targeted payout ratio, in a range of 50-75%, conditional on significant changes in RWA growth, pending meeting the regulatory requirements and receiving the watchdog’s consent. The strategy is based on three pillars: (i)...
HEADLINES: • Dino Polska: 4Q24 results spot on prelims NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (7-13 April) • Bank of Cyprus: to acquire Ethniki Insurance Cyprus POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: to acquire Microinvest in Moldova NEUTRAL
HEADLINES: • Enea: full 4Q24 results in line with preliminaries; PLN 7.9bn capex planned in 2025E NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 4Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 15% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Kruk: issues 1Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • Aegean Airlines: 1Q25 traffic – a strong start to the year POSITIVE • Turkish Airlines: 1Q25 traffic – 4% ASK growth yoy NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: March sales growth recovers to 13% yoy, but still well below our FY expectations NEUTRAL • Bank M...
EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: pricing and believing (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Asseco Poland: 4Q24 review – net profit up 9% yoy, 9% above the consensus POSITIVE • InPost: 4Q24 in line with expectations; FY25E EBITDA growth guidance in the mid-20%s, but a slow start to the year POSITIVE • Kety: solid full 4Q24 results, with EBITDA 12% above preliminaries POSITIVE • Halyk Bank: 4Q24 review and 2025E guidance highlights • Titan Cem...
The Polish banks have rallied 35% ytd, but the median total return for the LTM has arrived at 18%+ for the Polish banks under our coverage. We feel that the market is currently in a similar place to exactly a year ago. The banks have performed well since the end of last year, but valuations remain attractive, with our 2025-26E median P/Es of 9.0-8.2x, at discounts to the long-term valuation levels and with solid single-digit dividend yields in 1H25E. Our upgraded forecasts imply a 10% median EPS...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: Financial Stability Committee mentions sanction of free credit risk for consumer loans portfolio NEGATIVE • DataWalk: preliminary 4Q24 results – sales up 19% yoy, to PLN 9.09m POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: putting the CBRT’s emergency rate hike into context • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (17-23 March) • GTC: solvency of controlling investor in question, after State Audit Office of Hungary's report • Banca Transilvania: dividend proposal from the 2024 profits NEUTRA...
HEADLINES: • Doosan Škoda Power: steaming ahead (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Elbit Systems: 4Q24 – strong results, record FCF generation POSITIVE • cyber_Folks: 4Q24 results review – 27% yoy EBITDA growth, in line with our estimates and the consensus POSITIVE • Kazatomprom: 4Q24 results POSITIVE • Vercom: key takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: 2025-28E strategy announcement – at least PLN 1.2bn FCF in 2028E POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: recommends DPS of PLN 12.6 and des...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: conditional USD 420m agreement to buy leading MAC Group fitness chain in Türkiye POSITIVE • Inter Cars: February sales growth decelerates to 3% yoy NEGATIVE • CTP: issues EUR 1bn of green bonds in two tranches, 6Y and 10Y POSITIVE • Ford Otosan: signs agreement with Iveco to develop heavy truck cabin models NEUTRAL • Polish utilities: comments on electricity price freeze for 4Q25 NEUTRAL • Baltic Classifieds Group: acquires Lithuanian real estate valuation platform ...
HEADLINES: • Baltic Classifieds Group: good opportunity to act (upgraded to BUY) • Kalekim: strong results in 4Q24 POSITIVE • Migros: a good set of operating results for 4Q24 POSITIVE • PGE: preliminary 4Q24 EBITDA 11% above our forecast and 27% above the consensus POSITIVE • Pepco Group: strategy update ahead of Capital Markets Day – focus on Pepco banner and CEE region; EUR 200m buyback in 2025-27E; Poundland dragging on FY25E EBITDA guidance POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: 2025E guidance analy...
Banca Transilvania (TLV) held its 4Q24 results conference call yesterday afternoon (5 March), and provided its guidance for 2025E on a stand-alone basis. We have run the numbers, and tried to estimate the consolidated numbers and stack them against our 2025E forecasts. On our initial analysis, the guidance implies material upside for our 2025E forecasts, which is aligned with the Bloomberg consensus. Banca Transilvania is trading at 7.3x P/E and 1.4x P/BV on our 2025E figures, while the implied ...
EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.
HEADLINES: • Kruk: detailed 4Q24 results, revealing headwinds in Spain NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: small miss on 4Q24 results, but promises strong ROTE outlook for 2025E and adds another round of share buyback potential NEUTRAL • Richter: soft 4Q24 operating results NEGATIVE • Sphera Group: 4Q24 soft, as expected NEGATIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: earnings a small beat, bottom line boosted by negative goodwill and low tax rate POSITIVE • Romgaz: 4Q24 results NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: 4Q24 pre...
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