EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Air Astana Group: a cash-accretive airline from the heart of Eurasia (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Elm: still a digital champion (stays HOLD) • PZU: reports solid 4Q23; high DPS potential POSITIVE • CEZ: misses on 4Q23 net profit, tepid 2024E guidance NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: strong 4Q23 beats expectations, but company trims 2024E guidance for card additions abroad NEUTRAL • Teknosa: mixed results in 4Q23 NEGATIVE • CA Immo: 4Q23 – all about the disposals POSITIVE • Brisa: 4Q2...
HEADLINES: • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • CEZ: postcard from Prague • Colt CZ Group SE: postcard from Prague • Eurowag: postcard from Prague • Pilulka Lekarny: postcard from Prague • Athens Exchange Group: postcard from Prague • Elbit Systems: postcard from Prague • Siauliu Bankas: postcard from Prague • Budimex: postcard from Prague • CD Projekt: postcard from Prague • Cyber_folks: postcard from Prague • Cyfrowy Polsat: postcard from Prague ...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Czech Republic macro: CNB begins rate cut deliberations • Komercni Banka: solid 3Q23 delivery, but not implying any major changes in medium-term outlook NEUTRAL • Raiffeisen Bank: beats 3Q23 expectations, improves guidance, but valuation still at deep discounts NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: 3Q23 results - strong bottom line with still provision releases POSITIVE • Dino: 2-5% beat in 3Q23 NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 3Q23 results - above the consensus, plus interim dividend of EUR 0.3/share • ...
HEADLINES: • Logo Yazilim: clearer skies in 2024E (stays BUY) • Turkish Airlines: 3Q23 - even better summer than last year POSITIVE • Brisa: solid 3Q23 results, on gross margin expansion and low CIT NEUTRAL • Migros: strong beat in the 3Q23 financials POSITIVE • ING BSK: posts solid 3Q23 results, but largely in line with its peers NEUTRAL • Verbund: 3Q23 results above our estimates • Alkaloid: 3Q revenues growth normalises, 4Q shaping up nicely NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: US - Fed stays on h...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • Brisa: investing in expansion and sustainability (upgraded to BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (18-24 September) • PGE: 2Q23 preliminary results • PCF Group: earnings call sheds more light on costs, making 2Q23 figures look a little better NEUTRAL • PCF Group: suspension of potential new WFH project negotiations NEGATIVE • Turkcell / Turk Telekom: coverage UNDER REVIEW
We have updated our forecasts for Brisa, to reflect its recently announced capacity expansion plans and EBRD loan agreement, as well our updated Turkish macro assumptions. We raise our 12M price target (PT) to TRY 104.9/share (+13% in USD terms) and upgrade our rating to BUY, with 19% upside. The new, green lit capex programme is positive in two respects as: 1) sales have been capacity restrained for over two years; and 2) it indicates that Brisa is comfortable with the mid-term demand outlook a...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Romgaz: keeper for the longer term (stays BUY) • Turkish Airlines: 2Q23 beat, revenue environment remains very strong, costs better than expected POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 2Q23 results in line, but FY23E guidance cut NEGATIVE • Alro: deeper net loss in 2Q23, bauxite business to be sold NEGATIVE • CCC: preliminary 2Q23 adjusted EBITDA falls 27% yoy, headlines broadly as expected NEUTRAL • Brisa: takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: July sales up 27% yoy NEUTR...
HEADLINES: • Isbank: 2Q23 highlights - subsidiary profits boom • Coca-Cola Icecek: 2Q23 - better than expected results POSITIVE • Brisa: 2Q23 EBITDA margin up to 22%, volumes fall 8% yoy on exports • Romania macro: NBR holds the policy rate unchanged • Lamda Development: rundown of key value drivers (highlights from the CMD) POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: 2Q23 preliminary net profit reaches PLN 120m, 3% above the consensus POSITIVE • CEZ: State reportedly seeking to acquire gas network operators N...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Jahez: entering new markets (stays HOLD) • Turkish Airlines: 1Q23 - stellar pax yields, partly offset by higher CASK and declining cargo yields POSITIVE • Migros: 1Q23 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Brisa: small 1Q23 beat, driven by continuing margin recovery POSITIVE • Anadolu Efes: strong operating results in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Siauliu Bankas: 1Q23 - solid start to the year POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: Chamber of Deputies approves solidarity tax law, including tax on processed crude •...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • Mytilineos: firing up the engines (stays BUY) • NLB Group: strong 4Q22 results, even stronger outlook • PKN Orlen: 4Q22 results - weak gas segment, strong refining • MedLife: integration of new acquisitions; rising rates push company into 4Q22 loss NEGATIVE • Enerjisa Enerji: 4Q22 - P&L beat, generous dividend proposed, no 2023E guidance provided • Nuclearelectrica: final preliminary FY22 numbers 8% above estimates released with the budget • OTE: 4Q22 results review - soft quar...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Cyprus: patience wins the race (stays BUY) • Turk Telekom: 4Q22 results in line, but no dividends from the FY22 earnings NEGATIVE • Magyar Telekom: 4Q22 results - EBITDA down 3% yoy, 2% above the consensus; strong 2023-24E outlook POSITIVE • TBC Bank: 4Q22 highlights, and our take on the redemption liability • Brisa: small 4Q22 earnings beat, declares DPS of TRY 3.6 (6.0% yield) POSITIVE • Piraeus Bank: 4Q22E results (due out tomorrow morning) • Alro: 4Q22E results previ...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
HEADLINES: • Yapi Kredi: 3Q22 highlights - 14% beat, but spreads look tighter vs. peers • Electrica: impact of latest ordinance in the energy sector POSITIVE • Siauliu Bankas: 3Q22 - another positive surprise • Alkaloid: strong 3Q, driven by Russia/CIS and Western Europe POSITIVE • Arena Hospitality Group: reports record 3Q on strong ADRs POSITIVE • Brisa: 3Q earnings and conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Coca-Cola Icecek: 3Q22 results - in line NEUTRAL • Vestel Beyaz: worse-than-expected r...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
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