Revising estimates, Maintain Hold: We have updated our estimates for Erdemir and increased our 12M TP by 2%, to TL53.6/share, mainly led by the update of our macro assumptions, implying a 27% upside potential (vs. 28% upside potential of our coverage). Thus, we reiterate our Hold rating for the shares (downgraded from Buy on January 2022, underperformed the BIST-100 by 64% since). Regarding near term outlook, we are constructive of improvement in Erdemir’s sales volume in FY24 (estimate of 13% y...
Due to a change in analyst responsibilities, we are discontinuing our coverage of Anadolu Efes, Aygaz, Enerjisa Enerji, Erdemir, Tekfen Holding and Vestel Beyaz with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks.
We have revised down our 12M TP for Erdemir by 8%, to TL40.0/share, mainly due to slightly lower EBITDA/tonne assumptions, implying 10% downside potential. Thus, we reiterate our Hold rating. We believe the following factors should prohibit a sustained outperformance in the near term 1) the recent strength in the share performance, particularly following the earthquakes, with a 7% outperformance over the past month and 13% YTD, increasing the share price performance gap vs. peers, 2) Potentially...
HEADLINES: • PKN Orlen: there can be only one (stays BUY) • Richter Gedeon: near-term headwinds and juggernaut Vraylar (stays HOLD) • Turkey macro: inflationary factors ahead of the elections • HansaMatrix: 4Q22 revenues at top of guidance range POSITIVE • CCC: change of CFO NEGATIVE • PKO BP: CHF mortgage saga profit warning for 4Q22E • LiveChat Software: secures new patent in the US POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: to implement annual inflation-based fee adjustment as of 1 March 2023 POSITIVE • ...
HEADLINES: • Raiffeisen Bank International: potential event-driven BUY (stays BUY) • Pepco Group: lfl jumps to 13% in 1Q23 on low base and inflation; optimistic FY23E EBITDA guidance POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 4Q22 trading statement - Petrom not subject to solidarity tax for 2022 POSITIVE • OMV: 4Q22 trading results • Jumbo: FY22 sales growth at 14% yoy • Solutions by STC: signs SPA to acquire 100% of Contact Center Company NEUTRAL • Erdemir: to launch coke battery No.4 at the end of 2023E as rep...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • ADNOC Distribution: pumped for growth (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Bank of Cyprus: strong ROTE uplift on the cards already (stays BUY) • OPAP: 3Q22 review - solid set of results, driven by strong online presence • Public Power Corporation: 3Q keeps company on track to meet FY22E guidance NEUTRAL • Fourlis: 3Q22 review - decent quarter and gross margin recovery • Huuuge Games: adjusted 3Q22 EBITDA in line with the preliminary figure, supportive FY guidance NEUTRAL • Warsaw St...
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: end-summer liquidity ahead of expectations (stays BUY) • Alkaloid AD Skopje: expansion and antibiotics drive strong earnings (stays HOLD) • TBC Bank: 3Q22 highlights - much better than expected with trading income • Romania macro: stronger than most, rates heading slightly higher than thought previously • European Oil and Gas Monthly: October 2022 • CEZ: WFT approved, price caps announced • Turkish Airlines: 3Q22 - can it get any better? POSITIVE • Erdemir: new pelle...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: record-high clean CCS EBIT, above both our and consensus numbers POSITIVE • OMV: 3Q22 results and special dividend proposal • Garanti Bank: 3Q22 highlights - decent quarter, on its own • Kruk: PLN 188m of net profit in 3Q22 - profit warning • Europe macro: ECB's stance to stay hawkish for a long time, but attention is shifting to liquidity • Erdemir: key takeaways from the 3Q22 earnings call NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: US - positive 3Q GDP does not change the traje...
HEADLINES: • Jeronimo Martins: strong 3Q22 on Biedronka's 23% lfl and accelerating EBITDA contribution from Ara NEUTRAL • MONETA Money Bank: 3Q22 results - irrelevant beat, reassurance needed on MREL issuance target xx NEUTRAL • Otokar: 3Q22 results - big miss due to pause in defence deliveries • Tekfen Holding: 3Q22 results - a mixed bag, with negative signals from the E&C segment NEGATIVE • Erdemir: 3Q22 results review - materially below expectations on EBITDA and bottom line NEGATIVE • Akb...
HEADLINES: • Turkish banks: shifting sands (Akbank, Garanti Bank, Isbank and Yapi Kredi downgraded to SELL) • Krka: integrated model underpins steady returns (BUY) • Bank Millennium: books a PLN 1bn net loss in 3Q22, but underlying profitability at peak levels NEUTRAL • Arcelik: 3Q22 results - bottom line misses expectations NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: banking watchdog tightens requirements on Lira borrowers • CCC: new share issue extended by institutional investors POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: to...
We have fine-tuned our estimates for Erdemir and cut our 12M TP by 8%, to TL32.5/share, mainly due to slightly lower long-term EBITDA/tonne assumptions, implying 10% upside potential. Thus, we reiterate our Hold rating. We believe that 1) despite the stock’s significant underperformance (vs the BIST-100) over the past 6M, it has been a strong relative performer on a 2Y basis, and remains an outperformer vs most regional peers; 2) incremental upside to Erdemir’s effective sales prices related to ...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
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