reports
- Koray Pamir
Kardemir - Upgrade to Buy. Domestic tailwinds, cautious on the global ...
Upgrading to Buy on valuation and potential domestic tailwinds: We upgrade Kardemir to Buy (from Hold) and raise our 12-month target price to TL40.4/share (from TL34.5), implying 49% upside from the current share price. The change reflects (1) a modestly higher FY26–27 EBITDA/tonne trajectory, (2) slightly higher FY26–27 volume assumptions as partial debottlenecking is expected around March 2026, and (3) updated macro inputs. Despite the slight recovery in share price over the past one month, 5%...
- Koray Pamir
Erdemir - UMREK confirms Alacahan resource; Value accretive yet core v...
Resource confirmation & scope: The UMREK-compliant disclosure confirms that Ermaden’s Alacahan project hosts a 14.9 Mt inferred resource grading 0.89 g/t Au, translating to 424 Koz contained gold. This is closely aligned with our May 2025 base-case assumption of a 15 Mt deposit grading 1.0 g/t Au (~480 Koz), a 12% delta in contained ounces. The grade is marginally lower but within the range expected for heap-leach–amenable oxide systems. Drilling coverage of 45 hectares—about 0.8% of the 5,804 h...
Moody's Ratings downgrades Erdemir's national scale rating to A3.tr
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today downgraded to A3.tr from A1.tr the national scale long-term corporate family rating (NSR) of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari T.A.S. (Erdemir). The company's B2 global scale long-term corporate family rating, B2-PD probability of default rating, B2 senior unsecur...
Moody's Ratings downgrades Erdemir's national scale rating to A3.tr
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today downgraded to A3.tr from A1.tr the national scale long-term corporate family rating (NSR) of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari T.A.S. (Erdemir). The company's B2 global scale long-term corporate family rating, B2-PD probability of default rating, B2 senior unsecur...
- Koray Pamir
- Zekai Unal
Erdemir - Reserved view on steel ops; gauging upside on gold mining po...
Conservative view on steel operations mainly due to weak FCF outlook, placing gold mining prospect into perspective, maintain Hold: We have updated our valuation (blended target 6.0x FY25E–FY26E EV/EBITDA (net debt adjusted)) and estimates for Erdemir, raising our 12M target price by 6% to TL30.1/share. This revision primarily reflects updated macro assumptions including FX and steel price forecasts. Our 12M TP implies a 26% upside potential yet remains below the 54% average upside across our no...
Moody's Ratings affirms Erdemir's B3 ratings; positve outlook
Moody's Ratings ("Moody's") has today affirmed Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari T.A.S.'s (Erdemir) long-term corporate family rating (CFR) of B3, probability of default rating (PDR) of B3-PD, and national scale long-term corporate family rating of A3.tr. We have also assigned a B3 instrument rating...
Moody's Ratings affirms Erdemir's B3 ratings; positve outlook
Moody's Ratings ("Moody's") has today affirmed Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari T.A.S.'s (Erdemir) long-term corporate family rating (CFR) of B3, probably of default rating (PDR) of B3-PD, and national scale long-term corporate family rating of A3.tr. We have also assigned a B3 instrument rating to...
- Koray Pamir
Erdemir
Revising estimates, Maintain Hold: We have updated our estimates for Erdemir and increased our 12M TP by 2%, to TL53.6/share, mainly led by the update of our macro assumptions, implying a 27% upside potential (vs. 28% upside potential of our coverage). Thus, we reiterate our Hold rating for the shares (downgraded from Buy on January 2022, underperformed the BIST-100 by 64% since). Regarding near term outlook, we are constructive of improvement in Erdemir’s sales volume in FY24 (estimate of 13% y...
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