EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
We reiterate our BUY rating on Coca-Cola Içecek (CCI) and raise our 12M price target (PT) to TRY 975, from TRY 607.7. We have revised our model to reflect the effects of the inflation-accounting-based financials and also incorporated the recently-acquired Bangladesh operations. Our investment case has not changed, and we believe firmly that CCI will continue to record strong operating results in 2024E, thanks to its strong market positioning, pricing power and good execution. On valuation ground...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: quo vadis? New contracts, new products and upcoming transition to inflation accounting POSITIVE • Georgia macro: NBG cuts policy rate by 75bps • CEZ: press reports CEZ has won tender for 55% of GasNet, could weigh on the 2023 dividend payout NEGATIVE • Allegro: 4Q23 results above expectations; guidance for a strong 1Q24E POSITIVE • Verbund: 4Q23 results in line with guidance NEUTRAL • Coca-Cola Icecek: 4Q23 results – in line operationally NEUTRAL • OPAP: 4Q23 results and FY...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: 4Q23 – another year of growing earnings, FFO approaching EUR 15m in 2023 POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: 2H23 – NOI grows by 13% yoy in 2023, on strong tenant sales POSITIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 4Q23 highlights and 2024E guidance POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: completes acquisition of Coca-Cola Bangladesh Beverages Ltd NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: 4Q23E preview – 13% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due 28 February) • Sipchem: 4Q23E results preview (due on 28 February) NEUTRAL ...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: 4Q23 results – EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, in line with the consensus NEGATIVE • Piraeus Bank: 4Q23 highlights and 2024-26E guidance • Poland macro: 2023 ends with near stagnant growth • Hungary macro: underwhelming 2023, but constructive signs for the new year • Romania macro: GDP to accelerate further, after a good 2023 • Czech Republic macro: GDP ends 2023 on a soft note • CEZ: committee recommends dropping Lex CEZ 2.0 NEUTRAL • Electrica: 4Q23 operational review shows s...
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: • Warsaw Stock Exchange: the tide is turning (upgraded to BUY) • Coca-Cola Icecek: announces 4Q23 trading update and 2024E guidance NEUTRAL • Tupras: major maintenance NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: 4Q23 bookings down 2% qoq, 3% below our forecast NEGATIVE • Auto Partner: December sales growth decelerates materially, to 14% yoy, slightly below our expectations NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: 1,919k active sports cards at end-2023 NEUTRAL • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Coca-Cola Icecek: keeping the faith (stays BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: Romania - growth ok, loose fiscal stance with attractive yields • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the interview with the CEO NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: acquires 95% stake in El-Kajo for PLN 29m and up to PLN 34m earnout POSITIVE • Electrica: distribution tariffs could rise by c.6% next year NEUTRAL • InPost: EUR 2m shares transferred between Supervisory Board Member and CEO NEUTRAL • PCF Group: CEO comments on strateg...
We reiterate our BUY rating on Coca-Cola Icecek (CCI) and raise our 12M price target (PT) to TRY 607.7, from TRY 275.5. We have updated our model with the 9M23 results and our revised macroeconomic forecasts. Given the robust 9M23 delivery, we anticipate that CCI should continue to record strong operating results in 2024E, thanks to its strong market positioning, pricing power and strong execution. We estimate sales volume growth to recover to 3% yoy in 2024E, from almost flat in 2023E, and fore...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: 3Q23 results - backlog hits historical peak of USD 11bn, execution on track POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: strong beat in 3Q23 financials POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 3Q23 results - in line NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: 3Q23 results highlights • OMV Petrom: takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Czech Republic macro: GDP disappoints in 3Q • OMV: joint venture to build Europe's largest plastics sorting facility • Jahez: announces lapse of period to fulfil the SPA condition...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: plunge overdone (stays BUY) • CEZ: PM Fiala says no minority squeeze out, nationalisation in the pipeline NEGATIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: takeaways from the capital markets day • Polish banks: to face potential extension of credit holidays NEUTRAL • Borouge: 3Q23E results preview (due on 30 October) • Budimex: 3Q23E EBITDA up slightly yoy, despite demanding comparison base (due on 30 October) • Coca-Cola Icecek: 3Q23E earnings preview (due 31 October) • Mig...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
Coca-Cola Icecek (CCI) was able to withstand high inflation and volatility in currency in its markets and recorded 26% y/y USD based EBITDA growth in 1H23. We raise estimates to include new macro forecasts and growth assumptions. We increase 12-month target price to TL457 (previously TL311) per share and maintain our BUY rating. It is worth noting that CCI is currently trading at an attractive valuation, with 2024E P/E of 6.9x, which represent a discount of approximately 48% compared to internat...
HEADLINES: • Isbank: 2Q23 highlights - subsidiary profits boom • Coca-Cola Icecek: 2Q23 - better than expected results POSITIVE • Brisa: 2Q23 EBITDA margin up to 22%, volumes fall 8% yoy on exports • Romania macro: NBR holds the policy rate unchanged • Lamda Development: rundown of key value drivers (highlights from the CMD) POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: 2Q23 preliminary net profit reaches PLN 120m, 3% above the consensus POSITIVE • CEZ: State reportedly seeking to acquire gas network operators N...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: 2Q23 results - in line operationally, but bottom line misses expectations NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (17-23 July) • Kruk: buys another portfolio in Spain POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: acquires naEKRANIE.pl website and 4FUN channels NEUTRAL • TeraPlast: 2Q23E earnings preview (due out tomorrow) • Tofas: 2Q23E earnings preview (due on 26 July) NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: 2Q23E earnings preview (due on 27 July) NEUTRAL • Migros: 2Q23E earnings preview (due on 2 A...
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