reports
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
ENI capex cut but maintains shareholder returns
Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Welcomed tender from Petrobras
Updates suggest Petrobras yesterday launched a new tender for “one or more” deepwater rigs for the Buzios field starting late-2026/early-2027. As it has been a while since the last Petrobras tender, and there has been uncertainty related to the timing of upcoming tenders, we believe a new Petrobras tender would offer relief for investors. As we count nine rigs already contracted with Petrobras to match the start-up window, we expect the requirement would be filled by rigs already in the country,...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Looking at required day-rates
Although there are several ongoing deepwater tenders, the lack of recent deepwater fixtures has created uncertainty among investors related to day-rates. Consequently, we have analysed the required day-rates to support current share prices and valuations. Given the high operating leverage and multiple variables involved (utilisation, lifetime and cost of capital), we estimate the sector requires 7G drillship day-rates from the mid-USD300k and above to support the current share prices.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
E&P spending sensitivity explored
With an oil price at the mid-USD60s/bbl level, focus on the oil major overspending situation, and resulting impact on the outlook for offshore-focused oil services, is set to increase further. While oil companies would likely cut, or even eliminate, buyback programmes first, we expect increased focus on spending reductions and efficiencies, creating a more challenging business environment for oil services. Hence, we see a risk of oil companies taking a more cautious approach, resulting in projec...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Pemex seeks national partnerships to accelerate developments
In line with its earlier communication about Pemex looking for partners to re-start drilling activities and fight oil production decline, local news reports suggest that Pemex is seeking partnerships for 17 blocks (11 offshore and six onshore) to secure external capital. It is mostly considering local partners and intends to take the role as operator in most of the blocks. At first glance, the expected volume from the partnerships looks to be small, with only 66kbd to be added by year-end 2025. ...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Deepwater fixture activity set to increase
After a slow start to the year for deepwater awards, we see long- and short-term jobs nearing rig selection. On the positive side, we believe the capital markets will appreciate increasing fixture activity and oil companies committing to long-term development jobs, supporting cycle duration. From a dayrate perspective, we see the bifurcation thesis unfolding, as some contractors are more focused on prioritising utilisation, also with counterparty, rig quality and region playing a role. Hence, as...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
In a mid-cycle plateau
Following recent updates from E&P companies, we have reduced our 2025 offshore spending estimate to 0.5% (from c3% earlier this year). This is driven by a combination of actual 2024 spending being higher than expected (8% versus 4% previously), creating tougher comparables and a reduction in spending plans from Pemex in 2025. Despite growth flattening out, we still see the cycle building in duration, with execution of deepwater developments remaining on the agenda, albeit with a delayed executio...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Petrobras claim to drilling contractors related to Sete project
Seadrill said on its earnings call that it recently had received a claim of USD213m from Petrobras related to its involvement in the Sete project in Brazil. Sete was launched in 2011, looking to build 29 deepwater rigs in Brazil, with involvement from several drilling contractors; Seadrill, Odfjell Drilling, Queiroz Galvao (now Constellation), Odebrecht (now Foresea), Petroserv (now Ventura Offshore) and Etesco. Seadrill said local and international peers have received similar claims. It further...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Update on Aramco and Pemex
In the jackup market, suspensions by Saudi Aramco and Pemex over the past 12 months have created continued uncertainty among investors. We see the overhang of 11 ex-Aramco premium jackups yet to be re-contracted extending through 2025. Looking ahead, we believe the worst is behind us, but we still see a risk of further reductions in Saudi Aramco’s rig count, possibly through additional suspensions of 2–5 rigs, while other rigs are set to be extended. In Mexico, uncertainty remains high, and it i...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Brazilian regulators said to have suspended several drillships
News reports, as confirmed by Ventura Offshore, suggest the Brazilian regulator (ANP) has ordered the suspension of operations for certain rigs offshore Brazil, related to what appears to be safety issues. Unlike suspensions seen for jackups by Saudi Aramco and Pemex, these suspensions are not related to a lack of demand, but rather what appears to be safety procedures in the view of the regulator, which the news article highlights as “minor issues”. Hence, we expect no wider impact for the offs...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Seadrill (Buy, TP: USD45.00) - Patience remains key
Having secured extensions for two of three Petrobras rollovers, Seadrill’s earnings visibility for its high-spec deepwater rigs is building nicely for 2027. At the same time, uncertainty remains for its tier-2 deepwater rigs, and the negative estimate revision trend is set to continue, as we are 13% (2025e) and c20% (2026–2027e) below consensus on EBITDA. Still, it is one of the few offshore drillers with decent YOY EBITDA growth and is trading at decent cash flow yield metrics and attractive mu...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Offshore spending plateauing
After reviewing major oil companies’ most recent spending plans, we estimate offshore spending growth of c3% YOY in 2025 (down from c5% late last year and c8% six months ago). We believe a combination of supply-chain bottlenecks, efficiency gains, and capital discipline among oil companies are the main reasons for spending growth fading, resulting in a mid-cycle plateau. On the flip side, the cycle keeps building duration, as we see investments being pushed into 2026–2027. Also, activity levels ...
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
BORR BORR DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
VTURA VENTURA OFFSHORE
PLSV PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Retirement cycle started, but more needed
On one hand, it is positive to see Noble take action to balance the market, with plans to retire two cold-stacked drillships. However, as both had been cold-stacked for some time (10 and seven years) and were not considered actively chasing new contracts, the impact mostly relates to the signal sent rather than helping actual supply/demand. We continue to believe more retirements (including recently active rigs) are required, but consider Noble’s move today a good start. In our opinion, investor...
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