reports
- Simen Mortensen
Everything is connected
Geopolitical uncertainty has affected market interest rates and thus the Nordic real estate sector – and we see no near-term fix. The yield gap (risk premium) has remained broadly unchanged in the recent market volatility, meaning interest rates changes explain most of the YTD share price performance – a correlation we expected will continue. The local office rental market remains soft, and we expect the logistics market to follow suit. However, given the deleveraging efforts in recent years and...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
LOGIB LOGISTEA
Fastighets AB Balder: 1 director
A director at Fastighets AB Balder bought 7,000 shares at 66.190SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
- Simen Mortensen
A tenant bankruptcy, a lost rating, more newbuilds and new issues
This week, Castellum lost its seventh-largest tenant after Northvolt declared bankruptcy, Citycon’s IG rating was withdrawn, construction companies continue to start newbuilds (NCC in Finland), Corem announced a lease extension, and Kojamo and Sagax issued new bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.17–5.49% for 2025–2026e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Tough macro
Share prices for the names we cover are down by 7% week-on-week on average following the hike in market interest rates. In other news, February residential prices for Norway and Sweden were published, Skanska announced another large newbuild in Sweden, and Pandox acquired a EUR66m hotel in Cologne, Germany. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.12% for 2025e and 5.43% for 2026e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Better markets and more Q4 results
Positive data points for January were Colliers’ market update showing Nordic commercial real estate transaction volumes were up 17% YOY, while Norwegian residential developer, Union, said house sales improved 52% YOY, although both were from very low bases. Citycon released Q4 results this week, and Skanska announced a new development. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.94% for 2025e and 5.24% for 2026e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Last of the Q4s
Q4 reporting season wrapped up this week, with the last six of the names in the sector we cover releasing their results. In other news, the largest-ever hotel transaction in the Nordics was announced. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.85% for 2025e and 5.22% for 2026e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Tender offer and more Q4 results
After surpassing one-third of the votes in Entra this week, Castellum announced it would present a mandatory offer for all shares in the company. The Q4 reporting season has continued, with several names releasing results. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.61% for 2025e and 5.03% for 2026e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Niklas Wetterling
Balder (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Somewhat improving vacancy rate
Key highlights from the solid Q4 were: an improved vacancy rate (4.1%, Q3 4.4%); broadly flat property values (we expected a minor write-down); and optimistic comment regarding significant room for investments. We have cut our 2025–2026e FFOps by 4%, as we were too low on financial costs, but are still 3% above consensus on 2025e PFPM. We reiterate our BUY and SEK90 target price, due to the strong FFOps growth momentum in 2025e, low vacancy risk, and potential improved sentiment from re-entering...
- Simen Mortensen
Mixed Q4 results
This week, Fabege, Atrium Ljungberg, Pandox, JM and Peab reported a mixed set of Q4 results. We have HOLD recommendations for all these stocks. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.47% for 2024e and 4.94% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Rate cuts and Q4 reports
This week, the ECB and Riksbank cut policy rates, and Atrium Ljungberg and Platzer kicked off the Q4 reporting season. Balder’s associated company, Norion Bank, is under further scrutiny by the Swedish FSA for suspected AML violations, and we recently updated our PPI estimates following the company’s announced investments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.44% for 2024e and 4.91% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Set for another subdued year
Volatile market interest rates, coupled with rental market weakness, indicate 2025 could be another year of subdued sector performance. The sector is trading at discounts to its historical averages on P/FFO (15.4x NTM) and NAV (26% discount), while the tight implied yield gap looks less appealing. Deleveraging efforts over the past three years have improved EBIT/NIBD metrics and reduced sector risk. We maintain our neutral stance, with one SELL recommendation. Our top sector picks are Balder, Ny...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
LOGIB LOGISTEA
- Simen Mortensen
Transaction volumes on the up
Nordic property transaction volumes improved in December, with strong growth YOY in Norway and Sweden, albeit still far below ATH levels. In other news, Fabege made a mixed-use asset divestment at a 4% discount to BV, while we published Q4 previews for Sagax, Catena, Sveafastigheter and Wallenstam. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.44% for 2024e and 5.06% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Rising SWAP rates hit sector, weak rental update
The sector has traded down in recent weeks on rising long-term SWAP rates, resulting in multiples contraction, but we do not expect significant changes to consensus 2025–2026e FFO/EPS. This week, Corem issued a Q4 net letting-related profit warning, confirming the terminated lease in Stockholm’s Kista district, and Sveafastigheter announced a CFO change. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.42% for 2024e and 5.10% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Transactions and an upgrade
This week, Public Property Invest and Cibus Nordic Real Estate (Cibus) announced acquisitions, while Entra closed an asset sale 13% above book value. On Thursday, we upgraded Atrium Ljungberg to HOLD (SELL), and trimmed our target price on Balder (one of our sector top picks) to NOK90 (92) while reiterating our BUY. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.48% for 2024e and 5.06% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Niklas Wetterling
Balder (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Set for a strong 2025
Ahead of the Q4 results, we have raised our 2025–2026e FFOps by 2–1%. We are 7% above Infront consensus on 2025–2026e PFPM due to higher revenues and a higher JV PFPM forecast. We see Balder as a sector top pick for 2025. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK90 (92) based on an uptick in rates.
- Simen Mortensen
SEK10bn deal, residential prices and several deals by PPI
This week, we raised our 2025e FFOps for PPI by 16.5% on recent transactions, Skanska divested assets, K-Fastigheter and Brinova agreed a SEK10bn residential deal, and we published a residential prices update. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.39% for 2024e and 4.94% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
New bonds, bond turmoil and transactions
This week, both Public Property Invest and Citycon issued c5-year EUR bonds. SBB received additional letters from bondholders expressing an intention to accelerate regarding its Eurobonds. NCC announced the sale of a SEK3.6bn newbuild in Solna, Stockholm, while Skanska announced an internal transaction and JM the sale of a Finnish residential property. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.38% for 2024e and 4.93% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Final Q3s and several transactions
Approaching year-end, property transactions appeared to see the typical seasonal uptick in the past week. Also, Q3 reporting season concluded with Sveafastigheter and SBB Norden releasing their results. Finally, Kojamo announced the appointment of its new CEO. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.34% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Transactions, CMD and halted DPS
This week Balder, Citycon and SBB announced divestments, Public Property Invest was assigned an IG rating by Fitch, and Corem hosted its CMD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market
This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
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