reports
- Simen Mortensen
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market
This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Two upgrades, an equity raise, and transactions
This week, we upgraded Balder to BUY and Sagax to HOLD following their Q3 results, Balder completed a SEK1.5bn equity raise and bought assets from a JV, while a >5% rent increase for 2025 provided a positive datapoint for rent-regulated apartments in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.31% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Niklas Wetterling
Balder (Buy, TP: SEK92.00) - Up to BUY on strong 2025e growth
We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) on: 1) 2025e FFOPS growth of 17%; 2) positive trends in SATO with improved vacancies for the past two quarters; and 3) our view of Balder as a sector relative outperformer on the strong credit market and limited exposure to the office segment. We have increased our 2025–2026e FFOPS by 5%, on a 3% Q3 EBIT beat and greater interest rate hedging. We have raised our target price to SEK92 (83), based on a 2025–2026e P/FFO of 16–15x (peers 16.3–15.6x).
- Simen Mortensen
Q3 and rental KPIs in focus
This week, reporting season was in full swing, with nine covered companies reporting Q3 results. Overall, the results were mixed, while net lettings and vacancy rates were main points of interest given the current weak rental markets. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.78% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Shifted coverage, net-letting miss, potential residential market catal...
This week, we shifted our coverage from KCM Properties to Logistea and reinstated a recommendation with a BUY and SEK20 target price. In other news, Entra reported soft Q3 results, while Atrium Ljungberg’s were more neutral, and we see a potential catalyst for the Swedish residential market at the start of November. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.70% for 2024e and 5.17% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Keen eye on vacancy rates
Interest rates have seemingly peaked, and more cuts are expected. Given the level at which rates are set to stabilise, we still expect some upward pressure on book value yields. NAV-wise, this is likely to be offset by rental growth and retained earnings, but our base case is limited growth in 2024–2025e. Rental KPIs remain the key focus, as vacancy rates continue to rise, particularly for offices, but so far rental prices have held firm. We maintain our neutral sector stance, with Castellum and...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Sector optimism
In the past week, Citycon divested a retail asset in Norway, Logistea updated its financial targets following the merger with KMC Properties, Cibus carried out a rights issue as it is targeting M&A in the daily-goods property sector, and we saw sector optimism at DNB’s Nordic Real Estate & Construction Conference. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.21% for 2024e and 4.65% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Bonds, market data and investments
This week, Castellum issued a EUR500m bond loan, and according to Bloomberg, Catena is contemplating launching 1–2 green bonds next week. Pandox acquired another UK asset, Logista and Public Property Invest look set to join the FTSE EPRA index, and finally, August data for Swedish and Norwegian house prices and commercial transaction volumes was published. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.26% for 2024e and 4.70% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Hufvudstaden up to HOLD, layoffs in construction sector and rate cut
This week we upgraded Hufuvdstaden to HOLD following its Q2 results, JM is laying off 145 employees, and the Riksbank cut the policy rate by 25bp to 3.50%. While we retain our neutral stance on the Swedish real estate sector, we have turned slightly more positive since last month’s reduction in long-term market interest rates. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.27% for 2024e and 4.71% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
Fastighets AB Balder: 1 director
A director at Fastighets AB Balder sold 1,981,500 shares at 80.743SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...
- Simen Mortensen
More Q2 results and other news
The Q2 reporting season is again underway, following the summer break, with results from Olav Thon and Kojamo. In other news, Pandox announced it is considering a large UK investment, Norges Bank signalled the policy rate will not be cut near-term, and in Sweden, CPI has increased on an expected cut. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.29% for 2024e and 4.74% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
More Q2 results, a profit warning and an equity raise
This week, Kojamo issued a profit warning for Q2 and the full year. Balder, Castellum, Citycon and Sagax reported Q2 figures. Corem issued new shares. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.26% for 2024e and 4.69% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Niklas Wetterling
Balder (Hold, TP: SEK83.00) - FCF finally positive on R12-basis
A solid Q2 included positive FCF and a 4% drop in NIBD QOQ (ending 1% below our forecast). Sato’s improved vacancy rate QOQ was a positive, but risks in Finland’s residential market remain. We have raised our 2025–2026e FFOps by 6–10% on falling market interest rate expectations, and our target price to SEK83 (70). However, after a strong share-price performance and muted investment capacity expectations, we consider the stock fully valued at a 3% discount to the last reported NAV (and a 2025e P...
- Simen Mortensen
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
- Simen Mortensen
Q2 starts and transaction updates
The slow market recovery in Nordic CRE transactions continued in June. Moreover, a large transaction in Stockholm, Sweden, supports commercial brokers’ estimated current CBD yields. The Q2 reporting season has started, with continued indications of a weakening office rental market in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.34% for 2024e and 4.74% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
Strong divestment, flat Swedish policy rate and tenant bankruptcies
This week, the Swedish Riksbank kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, but the market is factoring in an 85% likelihood of a cut in August. Stenhus Fastigheter has seen two key tenants apply for bankruptcy within a week, and Entra divested a hotel at a 28% premium to book value. Finally, we maintained a neutral view in our Nordic real estate sector update last week. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
Improved sentiment, but unattractive sector valuation
On the positive side, sentiment has improved on peaked interest rates and tightening credit spreads. However, we consider the sector fully valued and maintain our neutral view, given our expectation of muted NAV/share and FFOps growth. Our key focus is on rising vacancy rates, particularly in the office segment. Our top sector picks are Wihlborgs, Catena and PPI.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
A merger, a bond exchange offer and other news
KMC (No rec) and Logistea (No rec) plan to combine, with Logisea acquiring all of KMC Properties’ group operations. SBB Norden announced a bond exchange offer. Dios named David Carlsson new CEO. Corem divested SEK107m of properties. Citycon announced the result of a bond hybrid exchange offer. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.43% for 2024e and 4.83% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
- Simen Mortensen
Initiating with a BUY, office-space reduction, and personnel changes
This week, we initiated coverage with a BUY on Public Property Invest, a key tenant for Fabege reduced its office space, Hufvudstaden made management changes, we updated our estimates for Besqab following the merger with Aros Bostad, and transaction volumes in May rose from low levels. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.38% for 2024e and 4.78% for 2025e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.