Sparebanken 1 SMN: 3 directors

Three Directors at Sparebanken 1 SMN bought 7,254 shares at between 181.260NOK and 182.310NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...

Heder Bank to offer mortgages at 4.99%

Outlook for continued high rates

Although we continue to expect some margin headwind, the outlook for postponed rate cuts – leaving interest rates at continued high levels – should bode well for sector earnings, further supported by a strong profitability focus and modest loan losses. With the sector trading at an average 2026e P/E of c11.0x, and solid dividend potential, we find the valuation undemanding. We reiterate our positive sector view but highlight a larger share of HOLD recommendations than 12 months ago.

Norwegian banks: Q4'24 outcome vs. expectations

Disappointing DPS given CET1 headroom

Adj. PTP beat of 4%/7% vs. ABGSCe/cons, driven by costs; Positive P&L revisions driven by other costs; Valuation in line with fundamentals

Sparebank 1 SMN (Buy, TP: NOK190.00) - Room for solid distributions

MING reported a Q4 ROE of 14.4% and 20% higher PTP YOY adjusted for the SpareBank 1 Markets gain in Q4 2023. Strong insurance growth in SpareBank 1 Group, combined with solid loan growth and low loan losses, contributed to increased earnings. With meaningful headroom to capital requirements, we still expect strong capital distributions ahead. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 0–2% and our target price to NOK190 (182); we reiterate our BUY.

Weaker DPS to hurt share

Adj. PTP +2% vs. ABGSCe, -1% vs. cons; Higher cost to impact revisions; Cons. '24e-26e EPS chg. down 0-2%, stock down 1-4% today

Norw. banks Q4e: Lower yields from RW floor

Attractive yield vs. peers

On course for ample distributions

While we forecast some margin moderation from current highs, we believe still-high interest rates, robust asset quality and a firm profitability focus bode well for continued strong earnings. With the sector trading at an average dividend-adjusted 2025e P/E of ~9.3x and several banks having additional excess capital, we still find the valuation undemanding. Noting some HOLD recommendations, we keep our positive sector view.

Norwegian banks: Increased RW floors for IRB banks

N-MoF increase RW to 25% for mortgages, keep CRE at 35%; Implementation 30 June 2025, banks time to adopt; Stocks likely down 1-3%. SVEG, MING more than DNB, NONG.

Norwegian savings banks: 4 proposals in a white paper

The ECC capital loss absorbing rank must be solved. Four independent suggestions, interconnect we think. SB1NO could be a relative winner, but still early days.

Norwegian banks: Q3'24 outcome vs. expectations

Negative cost revisions saved by associates

NII in line but higher cost and losses; Positive associate revisions, muted by personnel cost; Valuation in line with fundamentals

Sparebank 1 SMN (Buy, TP: NOK175.00) - NII momentum

Solid NII from strong loan growth helped offset higher opex and loan losses in Q3, while the NOK452m gain from the merger of Fremtind and Eika Forsikring on 1 July helped drive Q3 ROE above 21%. Asset quality remains strong, and we expect moderate loan losses going forward. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~2% on continued NII momentum and increased our target price to NOK175 (172). We reiterate our BUY.

Weaker cost and lending to impact revisons

Adj. PTP -6% vs. ABGSCe, -5% vs. consenus. Higher cost lower lending to impact revisions. Cons. '24e-26e EPS chg. down 0-1%, stock down 0-2% today.

Trading at fair value with a good yield

Still-encouraging profitability outlook

Despite expecting some margin headwinds, we believe still-high interest rates, robust asset quality and a firm profitability focus bode well for sector earnings remaining strong. Adding generous dividend prospects, we continue to find the valuation undemanding, with a coverage average 2025e P/E of ~9.1x. While noting a slightly more nuanced perspective with some HOLD recommendations, we maintain our positive sector view.

2024 Norwegian bank survey - Sector trends remain promising

While the respondents unsurprisingly forecast margins to decline from current highs, our 11th annual survey of the 50 largest banks in Norway presents an upbeat outlook, in our view. In addition to robust asset quality, the banks expect a slight uptick in lending growth. Supported by a market-disciplining profitability focus and solid dividend potential, we still find the sector valuation undemanding at an average 2025e P/E of ~9.3x. Noting a slightly more nuanced perspective with some HOLD reco...

Sparebank 1 SMN (Hold, TP: NOK167.00) - Still-strong profitability

Helped by still-high NII and continued fee income momentum, MING reported a strong Q2 ROE of 15.4%, despite elevated cost inflation and somewhat soft trading income. Moreover, loan losses remained modest at NOK47m (8bp). That said, with the stock trading at a 2024e P/B of ~1.23x and 2025–2026e ROEs of ~13%, we continue to see a more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. Thus, we reiterate our HOLD and NOK167 target price.