Storytel (Hold, TP: SEK83.00) - Struggled to live up to expectations

Investors had grown accustomed to strong results after five consecutive quarterly ‘high quality’ beats. However, its Q1 results did not meet MF consensus, which dents the short-term momentum of the story, in our view. We believe Storytel could reverse the negative sentiment at its 15 May CMD, but remain on the sidelines to see if the high bar from consensus is revised. The valuation remains undemanding, in our opinion, as we forecast adj. EBIT growth of 25% YOY in 2025. We reiterate our HOLD, an...

Attractive entry point amid strong growth path

Q1: solid overall but a tad light

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Expecting solid start to the year

We expect a solid Q1 report, with likely c11% organic growth as well as good margin progress supporting the 2025 guidance. Based on its footprint, we see minimal effect in case of tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with the biggest risk coming from potential reciprocal ones from Europe. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.

Q1e: solid growth and expanding margins

Storytel (Hold, TP: SEK96.00) - A story on pause

We continue to see a neutral risk/reward ahead of Storytel’s Q1 results and strategy update in May, as expectations have crept up with recent share price gains. Its step-change in profitability and cash flows is mainly explained by gross-margin expansion, and limited low-hanging fruit remains, in our view. Thus, we see less upside potential for meaningful consensus revisions to propel the stock higher. Valuation is undemanding, as we forecast EPS growth of 32% YOY in 2025. We reiterate our HOLD ...

Dividend signals confidence, but strategic update matters more

Alk-Abello A S: 1 director

A director at Alk-Abello A S bought 1,606 shares at 155.680DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Sales trump one-offs in Q4

While one-off costs took the initial focus (albeit broadly pre-warned), a solid underlying performance in Q4 was anchored in the important European tablet sales, which exceeded expectations. We find the 2025 guidance in line with expectations, but see upside risk to consensus on the top line given strong momentum in tablet sales in Europe. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Expecting strong year end

We expect a strong Q4, with c12% organic revenue growth YOY, but the EBIT margin to be under pressure from well flagged one-offs related to optimisation initiatives and revision of its Chinese plans. We expect the 2025 guidance to be in line with expectations and its long-term strategy announced last year for >10% organic revenue growth and a c25% EBIT margin. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.

Storytel (Hold, TP: SEK96.00) - A story on hold

The Q4 results were strong across the board, and a solid gross margin again largely explained the recent profit step change; however, we believe there are few low-hanging fruit left. While we forecast 33% YOY growth in EPS in 2025 and the valuation remains undemanding, we see little likelihood of meaningful consensus revisions providing a catalyst other than multiples expansion, implying a modest risk/return. Storytel plans to unveil new medium-term targets in Q2; we believe they could be conser...

Confidence grows after a strong Q4

Strong Q4 across the board with impressive profitability

Executing on content strategy with new acquisition

Storytel (Buy, TP: SEK81.00) - To end 2024e with a strong chapter

We expect Storytel to close 2024 with a strong chapter, partly aided by one-offs. Its improved gross margin remains the key driver behind the recent step change in EPS and FCF, although we acknowledge most of the lowest-hanging fruit to improve this is likely in the past. We could see investors take a wait-and-see approach until the new CEO presents her strategy in H1e, while appreciating 20% EPS growth YOY in 2025e at an undemanding valuation. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target pri...

Takeaways from CEO dinner

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Solid momentum reaffirmed

We find ALK’s solid momentum reaffirmed with the strong Q3 results, where higher European tablet sales more than offset the softness in SCIT/SLIT-drops. We believe the results also confirmed continued profitability improvement, leaving ALK on track to meet its 2025 EBIT margin target of c25% and in a position of strength to invest in growth opportunities, with the Neffy deal as a good example. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Should be another strong quarter

We expect another solid quarter for ALK, driven by continued strong European tablet sales momentum (we estimate c25% organic growth YOY, versus c35% in Q2). In the event our European tablet estimates prove conservative, we believe the full-year guidance could be raised for the fourth time this year. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.

Cash flow outlook even stronger

Storytel (Buy, TP: SEK80.00) - Q3 displays flywheel dynamics

Storytel’s broad-based Q3 beat showcased flywheel dynamics, with solid net adds, record-low churn, a growing share of internal content consumption raising margins, improved customer acquisition efficiency, operating leverage from cost savings, and strong cash flows. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK80 (78), as Storytel’s raised full-year guidance continues to fuel positive consensus revisions, allowing for a combination of a step-change in earnings, FCF momentum, an...