Crude Quarterly Q2'25: In the absence of war, the oil market is well s...

Sampo: 1 director

A director at Sampo bought 5,500 shares at 9.140EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing C...

Market tailwinds, valuation headwinds

Norwegian banks: Q1'25 outcome vs. expectations

Priced for flat interest rates: down to SELL

Delivers in-line with expectations

Adj. PTP -1% vs. ABGSCe & cons, driven by mgmt loan loss overlay; Trimmed lending guiding and positive capital revisions; Cons. up for 25e (beat), minor for '26e-'27e, stock to hold up

Running quarterly yield at >10%

2025e EBITDA guidance reiterated

Kongsberg Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK1250.00) - Expectations are set too hi...

We have downgraded Kongsberg Gruppen to SELL (HOLD) and lowered our target price to NOK1,250 (1,450). We believe the 2025e P/E of 46x overstates its growth capabilities 1) on an absolute basis, in a scenario where all of NATO reaches defence spending of 3.3% of GDP; and 2) compared to other defence companies as, in our view, the market appears to miss that only 20% of its 2024 sales were from European defence spending.

Fundamentals well reflected in pricing

Sparebank 1 SMN (Buy, TP: NOK202.00) - Solid core revenue growth

Q1 PTP was NOK1,269m, 6% lower YOY, as stronger ‘real NII’ and fees were offset by soft trading and higher opex. On a QOQ basis, two fewer interest days, and somewhat softer growth, led to a ‘real NII’ decline. With a CET1 ratio of 18.1%, we see continued capital headroom, supportive of solid distributions. We have trimmed our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1% on the NII trend, but reiterate our BUY and NOK202 target price.

Weaker NII and cost to impact revisions

Adj. PTP -3% vs. ABGSCe, -2% vs. cons; Higher cost to impact revisions; Cons. '25e-27e EPS chg. down 2-4%, stock down 2-4% today

Q1: Small Adj. EBITDA beat and stronger orders

Sampo Oyj (Buy, TP: EUR10.20) - Strong underwriting momentum

Although Q1 PTP declined by 19% YOY to EUR377m, due to a lower investment result, Sampo continued to see strong underwriting momentum, with 9% YOY GWP growth (in local FX) and a 2.5%-points stronger underlying combined ratio YOY. Based on a better synergy outlook from the integration of Topdanmark, it increased its cost improvement guidance. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1% on higher growth and ongoing underwriting improvements. We have raised our target price to EUR10.2 (9.8), and reite...

Ex-growth in Q1, intriguing set-up into summer

Energy Morning - 5 May 2025

Energy Morning - 2 May 2025

Approaching the next product cycle

Energy Morning - 28 April 2025

Muted 2025 growth expectations

Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...