reports
- Jesper Ingildsen
ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Expecting solid start to the year
We expect a solid Q1 report, with likely c11% organic growth as well as good margin progress supporting the 2025 guidance. Based on its footprint, we see minimal effect in case of tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with the biggest risk coming from potential reciprocal ones from Europe. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Outlook for continued high rates
Although we continue to expect some margin headwind, the outlook for postponed rate cuts – leaving interest rates at continued high levels – should bode well for sector earnings, further supported by a strong profitability focus and modest loan losses. With the sector trading at an average 2026e P/E of c11.0x, and solid dividend potential, we find the valuation undemanding. We reiterate our positive sector view but highlight a larger share of HOLD recommendations than 12 months ago.
Alk-Abello A S: 1 director
A director at Alk-Abello A S bought 1,606 shares at 155.680DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
- Jesper Ingildsen
ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Sales trump one-offs in Q4
While one-off costs took the initial focus (albeit broadly pre-warned), a solid underlying performance in Q4 was anchored in the important European tablet sales, which exceeded expectations. We find the 2025 guidance in line with expectations, but see upside risk to consensus on the top line given strong momentum in tablet sales in Europe. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.
- Jesper Ingildsen
ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Expecting strong year end
We expect a strong Q4, with c12% organic revenue growth YOY, but the EBIT margin to be under pressure from well flagged one-offs related to optimisation initiatives and revision of its Chinese plans. We expect the 2025 guidance to be in line with expectations and its long-term strategy announced last year for >10% organic revenue growth and a c25% EBIT margin. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK156.00) - Solid revenues and lower...
Helped by solid fee income and lower costs, HELG reported a Q4 ROE of 10.7%, despite some margin pressure. The board proposed a 2024 DPS of NOK8.4, implying a ~52% payout ratio. With the report, the bank updated its CET1 ratio benefit to 0.8% (previously 1.0%) from the upcoming implementation of Basel IV, further boosting its already-strong dividend capacity. We have edged up our 2025–2026e EPS by 0–2%. While we have raised our target price to NOK156 (144), with the stock trading at a dividend-a...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - PTSD decision getting closer
Lundbeck reached the high-end of its full-year guidance, with Q4 sales of DKK5,541m and an adj. EBITDA margin of 20.8%. Strategic brands’ Q4 sales were slightly below our forecast and consensus, with only Brintellix beating our estimate. The 2025 guidance is for sales growth of 7–10% at constant exchange rates (CER) and adj. EBITDA growth of 5–11% at CER. We view the upcoming Rexulti PTSD FDA Advisory Committee Meeting (due in H1) as the next share-price catalyst. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 ...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Solid Q4e; PTSD decision ahead
We forecast Q4 sales of DKK5,631m (consensus DKK5,629m) and adj. EBITDA of DKK1,155m (consensus DKK1,147m). For strategic brands, we estimate sales of DKK4,493m (c1.1% above consensus). We expect 2025 guidance for growth of CER sales of 3–6% and adj. EBITDA of 3–7%. We believe investor focus will be on the upcoming Rexulti PTSD FDA Advisory Committee Meeting (ADCOM), due in H1. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
On course for ample distributions
While we forecast some margin moderation from current highs, we believe still-high interest rates, robust asset quality and a firm profitability focus bode well for continued strong earnings. With the sector trading at an average dividend-adjusted 2025e P/E of ~9.3x and several banks having additional excess capital, we still find the valuation undemanding. Noting some HOLD recommendations, we keep our positive sector view.
- Jesper Ingildsen
ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Solid momentum reaffirmed
We find ALK’s solid momentum reaffirmed with the strong Q3 results, where higher European tablet sales more than offset the softness in SCIT/SLIT-drops. We believe the results also confirmed continued profitability improvement, leaving ALK on track to meet its 2025 EBIT margin target of c25% and in a position of strength to invest in growth opportunities, with the Neffy deal as a good example. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Focusing on strategic brands
The Q3 sales beat reflected a strong result in strategic brands, leading to an outperformance on adj. EBITDA. We expect continued momentum in strategic brands, with Q4e sales growth of 17.4% YOY. The 2024 guidance was narrowed for CER revenue growth of 12–14% (previously 11–14%) and CER adj. EBITDA growth of 17–20% (15–20%) and we find the top end of the guidance reachable. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.
- Jesper Ingildsen
ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Should be another strong quarter
We expect another solid quarter for ALK, driven by continued strong European tablet sales momentum (we estimate c25% organic growth YOY, versus c35% in Q2). In the event our European tablet estimates prove conservative, we believe the full-year guidance could be raised for the fourth time this year. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK142.00) - Back to positive NII tre...
Helped by a NOK15m gain from the Fremtind/Eika merger and renewed QOQ NII tailwinds, HELG reported a strong Q3 ROE of 12.9%. Loan losses were 17bp. With the report, the bank guided for a ~1%-point CET1 ratio benefit from the upcoming implementation of Basel IV, adding to its already generous dividend capacity. We have edged up our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1–2% and our target price to NOK142 (139). That said, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~10.0x, we continue to find the valuation fair and re...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Strategic brands in focus
Lundbeck recently released company consensus for Q3. Our revenue forecast of DKK5,502m is c0.5% above, driven by strategic brands (we estimate 21.6% revenue growth YOY), and we forecast an adj. EBITDA margin of 29.4% (consensus 28.9%). We expect the 2024 guidance for 11–14% revenue growth and 15–20% adj. EBITDA growth at CER to be unchanged. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - New adj. EBITDA margin target
At its CMD, Lundbeck extended its financial targets to include 2027, revised its adj. EBITDA margin target to 30%+, and guided for peak sales of cDKK9bn for Vyepti and USD1.3bn+ for Rexulti. Lundbeck provided an update on its proposed acquisition of Longboard Pharmaceuticals and R&D. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK56 (55).
Moody's Ratings upgrades SpareBank 1 Helgeland's long-term deposit rat...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today upgraded SpareBank 1 Helgeland's long-term deposit and issuer ratings to A2 from A3. At the same time, we upgraded the Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA to baa1 from baa2, its short-term deposit ratings to P-1 from P-2, and its long-term Counterpar...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK55.00) - Executing on M&A agenda
Ahead of the CMD due on 23 October, Lundbeck today announced the intention to acquire Longboard Pharmaceuticals for USD2.5bn, and its late-stage asset bexicaserin for the treatment of Developmental and Epileptic Encephalopathies (DEEs). We view the proposed acquisition as neutral, but believe Lundbeck’s M&A track record is better than the market perceives. We reiterate our BUY, but have raised our target price to DKK55 (52) on a greater Vyepti sales potential.
- Håkon Astrup
Still-encouraging profitability outlook
Despite expecting some margin headwinds, we believe still-high interest rates, robust asset quality and a firm profitability focus bode well for sector earnings remaining strong. Adding generous dividend prospects, we continue to find the valuation undemanding, with a coverage average 2025e P/E of ~9.1x. While noting a slightly more nuanced perspective with some HOLD recommendations, we maintain our positive sector view.
- Håkon Astrup
2024 Norwegian bank survey - Sector trends remain promising
While the respondents unsurprisingly forecast margins to decline from current highs, our 11th annual survey of the 50 largest banks in Norway presents an upbeat outlook, in our view. In addition to robust asset quality, the banks expect a slight uptick in lending growth. Supported by a market-disciplining profitability focus and solid dividend potential, we still find the sector valuation undemanding at an average 2025e P/E of ~9.3x. Noting a slightly more nuanced perspective with some HOLD reco...
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