Had a good run – time for a breather

Strong top-line & good AQ muted by higher costs. Adj. EPS up 5% and 1% amid higher NII & associates; costs weigh. Had a good run, and reflects fundamentals: down to HOLD (Buy).

SpareBank1 Nord-Norge (Buy, TP: NOK115.00) - Loan-loss downtick

Helped by continued NII momentum and moderate loan losses, NONG reported a strong Q1 ROE of 17.8%, even with somewhat elevated cost inflation. Boosted by improved lending margins and decent lending growth, ‘real NII’ rose 1.7%, despite one less interest day and deposit margin pressure. While the CET1 ratio fell ~10bp QOQ, the bank has a solid ~120bp buffer to its 15.8% requirement, boding well for further generous dividend distributions. With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.7x, we continu...

Sparebank 1 SMN (Buy, TP: NOK167.00) - Sustained NII momentum

Supported by further NII expansion, strong non-interest income and low loan losses, Q1 ROE was 16.0%, despite sustained cost pressure. Adjusted for the NOK59m positive one-off in Q4, ‘real NII’ rose another 7.3% QOQ, even with one fewer interest day. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1–2%, driven by higher NII, and our target price to NOK167 (161). With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.1x, we continue to find the valuation attractive and reiterate our BUY.

Margins still to peak

Adj. PTP up 2%, driven by associates and asset quality. Adj. EPS'24e-25e up by 2% and 6% amid higher lending & NIM. Strong fundamentals shown in its fine valuation: HOLD.

Higher costs weigh on results

Adj. PTP -1% vs. ABGSCe, -3% vs. cons driven by weaker costs vs. cons. Cons. '24e-'26e EPS rev. likely down 1-4%

Stronger income, lower losses but high costs

Adj. PTP beat of 4% vs. ABGSCe, 3% vs. cons (amid lower LLP). Strong quality income beat, but adj cost mute give PBLL beat 1%. Cons. '24e-26e EPS chg. up 1-2%, stock 1-3% today

Sampo Oyj (Buy, TP: EUR47.00) - Set for capital release in H2

Despite the harsh winter weather, strong financials helped offset the soft underwriting result. Through continued repricing ahead of claims inflation, If P&C saw the underlying risk ratio improve 0.3%-points and local currency premium growth of 7.6% YOY. With the new solvency model approved, we continue to expect capital distributions in connection with the Q2 report. Based on ~2% positive EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, we reiterate our BUY and EUR47 target price.

3% organic is weak, but underlying is fine

Q1: '24 low point, meagre 3% growth pushes market share lower. Demant doing well overall beyond the 3% figure. HOLD, TP 340 (350) on 3% underlying '24e EBIT cut.

Demant (Buy, TP: DKK400.00) - Better quarters should lie ahead

Q1 organic growth was a soft c3% YOY on tough comparables, reflecting growth of c4% for Hearing Aids and c7% for Diagnostics, but a weak c0% for Hearing Care due to slowing momentum in France. We expect 2024 to be back-end loaded and driven by Oticon Intent. The 2024 guidance was unchanged for key lines, including organic growth of 4–8%, EBIT of DKK4.6bn–5.0bn, and share buybacks of DKK2.0bn+. We reiterate our BUY and DKK400 target price.

Archer (Buy, TP: NOK1.80) - Upside potential to consensus and peer gro...

We expect a straight-forward Q1, and we are in line with consensus on EBITDA. Trading below NOK1 for some time, the share price is up 19% YTD. However, with high leverage, the EV is up only 4%, and the stock screens as one of the most attractive in our coverage on 2025e EV/EBITDA (3.1x) and FCF to EV (18%). We find consensus 2025e EBITDA conservative (we are 6% above), with the Fulmar P&A contract explaining 75% of our 2025e EBITDA YOY growth. We reiterate our BUY with a raised target price of N...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 05/06/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 06/05/2024

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Demant A/S : Slower start to 2024, weaker dynamics in France, UK and C...

>Q1 review – slower organic growth leads to miss on sales forecast - Demant’s Q1 revenues of DKK 5,423m (-1.5% y-o-y,) were driven by organic growth of 3% (vs ODDO BHF 6.2%/consensus 4.7%) and were -3%-2% vs ODDO BHF/consensus. The Communication business is excluded from the operating development as the asset is booked as discontinued operation. No bottom line was reported on a quarterly basis.Hearing aids impacted by flat growth in Europe - Hearing a...

Q1 not great, but relief looks warranted

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK165.00) - European tablet growth shifts gear

Last night, ahead of time, ALK-Abello published its Q1 results and increased its FY top-line guidance on much stronger than expected European tablet sales growth of c28% (consensus c15%). At the same time, the company announced a cost-cutting programme in connection with its ongoing strategic review, which should help it reach its c25% EBIT margin target by 2025. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK165 (145).

A good start to the year

Q1 EPS 7% above, but some special elements. Backlog implies revenue estimates are robust. Strong momentum, high expectations - HOLD.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - Solid Maritime margin beat i...

Q1 EBITDA beat our estimate and consensus by 9%, explained by a stronger Maritime (KM) margin than expected. However, as previously guided, the Defence (KD) margin did fall to 17% in this quarter. We have edged our 2025–2026e EPS up 2% after primarily raising our KM margin assumptions, but reiterate our HOLD and NOK780 target price as we believe the stock is already pricing in a possible ramp-up of NATO defence spending to at least 2.5% of GDP for all member states.

Demant (Buy, TP: DKK400.00) - 2024 likely to be back-end loaded

We forecast Q1 organic revenue growth of 4.7% YOY (in line with consensus), driven by Hearing Care (we forecast 4.9%) and Diagnostics (we forecast 8.4%), while Hearing Aids faces a tough YOY comparable (we forecast 3.6%). We expect 2024 to be back-end loaded and driven by Oticon Intent. We expect maintained 2024 guidance of 4–8% organic growth, c1% M&A growth, c-1% FX, and EBIT of DKK4.6bn–5.0bn. We reiterate our BUY and DKK400 target price.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK145.00) - Set for still-strong European tablet...

We expect another strong quarter for European tablet sales in Q1, up c15% YOY, marking a third consecutive quarter with growth in the teens, which should help boost investor confidence (results due at 07:00 CET on 3 May). However, due to tough comparables for the legacy business and seasonality patterns, we expect the 2024 guidance to be maintained. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK145 (140).

Rich in growth, quality and valuation

Still growing well into Q1e. Strong tailwinds in Defence, but within expectations. Strong growth into the end of the decade priced in - HOLD.