Pandora AS: 1 director

A director at Pandora AS sold 5,000 shares at 1,138.250DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

Q1 highly supportive for '24e turnaround story

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK165.00) - European tablet growth shifts gear

Last night, ahead of time, ALK-Abello published its Q1 results and increased its FY top-line guidance on much stronger than expected European tablet sales growth of c28% (consensus c15%). At the same time, the company announced a cost-cutting programme in connection with its ongoing strategic review, which should help it reach its c25% EBIT margin target by 2025. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK165 (145).

A strong start to the year

Pandora (Buy, TP: DKK1400.00) - More than charming growth

Top-line growth was once again much stronger than expected, with Q1 LFL growth accelerating to c11%, and trading comments suggest still-solid momentum in April. While comparables are becoming tougher, we believe the brand momentum supported by incremental growth opportunities could prove the revised guidance conservative again. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,400 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Small guidance raise

Q1 LCY figures beat consensus due to US rebate adjustments related to 2023 adding c5%-points to LCY growth and low SG&A cost boosting EBIT growth in Q1. Wegovy sales were below consensus but above our forecast, and we have therefore adjusted our rebate assumptions for 2024. The 2024 guidance was raised to LCY sales growth of 19–27% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–30% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.

Higher guidance, 15% beat on Q1 EBIT

Upgrade or not to upgrade, that is the question

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Company consensus added

We are slightly below consensus on Q1e LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 21.4%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 19.5%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the Ozempic US prescription trend will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK145.00) - Set for still-strong European tablet...

We expect another strong quarter for European tablet sales in Q1, up c15% YOY, marking a third consecutive quarter with growth in the teens, which should help boost investor confidence (results due at 07:00 CET on 3 May). However, due to tough comparables for the legacy business and seasonality patterns, we expect the 2024 guidance to be maintained. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK145 (140).

New financial targets in focus

Aims for adj. EPS of at least SEK 5.50 in '26. Driven by 10% EBITA CAGR and buybacks. We trim our long-term assumptions.

A soft start to the year

No incremental news on restructuring and soft Q1 numbers. EBIT estimates intact for 2025e-26e. Unattractive risk/reward, SELL reiterated.

Soft adj. numbers in Q1 vs. expectations

Pandora (Buy, TP: DKK1400.00) - Likely strong start to the year

Driven by strong brand momentum, increased investments and phased network expansion, we expect Pandora to have seen a strong start to the year (Q1 results due at 07:30 CET on 2 May). We forecast c15% organic growth YOY for Q1 (consensus c12%) and, as flagged by the company, a subdued EBIT margin due to investments. We continue to regard the full-year guidance as conservative (as has tended to be the case) and believe it could be updated with the results. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,400 target ...

Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...

Peab (Sell, TP: SEK58.00) - Consensus too bullish, too soon

With solid announced orders in Q1, we expect order intake above consensus, but EBIT below due to the cold Nordic winter and early Easter (results due 6 May (time TBA)). We also believe consensus is too bullish on the speed of Property Development’s recovery. We find the recent share price rally an overreaction and have downgraded to SELL (HOLD), with a raised target price of SEK58 (52), reflecting our updated estimates and peer valuation.