Post-Q3 drop gives buying opportunity in Link and Pexip

Performing in a tough market

EBIT in-line, likely a relief

2025 is likely to be a good year

Q2 miss on higher opex

Norway: Rebound to continue

Positive or neutral estimate revisions for most companies. Best risk/reward over Q2 in Crayon, Link, NOD. Top picks: Atea, Crayon, Link, Pexip.

Consensus upgrades ahead

Windows 10 end-of-life to drive PC replacement cycle. We are 13% above consensus on '25e EBIT. BUY: 10% '24e FCF yield and cons upgrades ahead.

Strong PC replacement cycle ahead

Windows 10 end-of-life to drive strong PC replacement cycle. We are 14% above cons on '25e EBIT. Up to BUY (Hold): Low valuation and estimate upgrades ahead.

8% EBIT on beat

Atea (Buy, TP: NOK180.00) - Buy ahead of 2024e upcycle

We have made only limited estimate revisions and are below consensus on EBIT for Q4 (tough comparables and a halted frame agreement in Denmark), while we are materially above consensus on 2024–2025e EBIT, as we expect an IT estate upgrade/refresh cycle from H2 2024 to benefit Atea. Furthermore, the stock continues to trade at an unwarranted discount to peers in our view, despite having appreciated towards the end of 2023. As such, we reiterate our BUY and NOK180 target price.

Atea (Buy, TP: NOK180.00) - Overall a relief

While Atea’s top line and earnings for Q3 were below our estimates and consensus, a higher gross margin than expected gives us cause for optimism. We have made only limited changes to our estimates and reiterate our BUY and NOK180 target price. In sum, we find the decent growth in gross profit and EBIT improvement YOY despite tough comparables a relief given the current macro backdrop and poor trading by peers, and consider the post-results share price reaction thus far overdone.

Microsoft Copilot to have general availability from November

Now that Microsoft has finally announced the general availability of Copilot for enterprises from November this year, we look at what it could entail for the first-line value-added resellers in our coverage universe, Atea and Crayon. In sum, if we assume Copilot achieves penetration of 5–15%, we estimate a gross profit tailwind of ~2–3% for Crayon and ~1% for Atea at a group level for 2024–2025.

Atea ASA: 1 director

A director at Atea ASA bought 140,000 shares at 136.830NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

Atea (Buy, TP: NOK180.00) - Expecting a solid Q2

We have made only minor estimate revisions and are still significantly above consensus for Q2 and 2023–2025 earnings, expecting continued solid growth across Atea’s regions and service lines. While it is facing tough YOY comparables, we see no reason for Atea not to report continued underlying growth in operating profit in Q2. We have raised our target price to NOK180 (150) and we reiterate our BUY, considering Atea and its public sector exposure a good place to be amid global macro headwinds.

Atea - Strong growth over the next two quarters

Q3: Significant sales beat, but EBIT in line with cons. Raise ’22e-’23e EBIT by 1-2% Maintain BUY with new target price of NOK 136 (122)

Atea - Significant sales beat in Q3

Q3: 22.5% gross sales growth and 2.7% EBIT margin Solid growth across products and geographies Cons. ’22-23e EBIT to come up by 2-3%

Atea - Growth likely remained solid in Q3

Q3e: 5% gross sales growth and 4.1% EBIT margin We forecast 2% revenue growth in 2023 Maintain BUY with new target price of NOK 122 (170)

Nothern Ligths

Atea (Buy, TP: NOK150.00) - Just what we were looking for

Atea reported a solid Q2, with results a tad above our estimates. We have raised our 2022e EBIT and EPS by 2–4% and continue to see Atea as a relative safe haven in this macro environment, while also offering significant upside potential from multiples expansion. We reiterate our NOK150 target price and BUY.

Atea - EBIT 3% above cons

Q2 FX adj. sales +13.8% y-o-y, EBIT 3% above cons Continues to deliver strong underlying sales growth Cons ‘22e EBIT to come up by 1-2%