Hornsea 4 cancellation adds to uncertainty

Ørsted today announced it is cancelling development of the 2.4GW Hornsea 4 project off the UK due to increased supply chain costs, higher interest rates, and greater construction and operational risk (FID was expected later in 2025). The cancellation adds to uncertainty for the offshore wind services industry and overall project profitability within offshore wind. No installation contracts for Hornsea 4 had been disclosed yet, but with Cadeler responsible for foundations and half the turbines on...

Atea (Buy, TP: NOK170.00) - Solid performance

Q1 gross profit and EBIT beat our above-consensus estimates, largely on a higher gross margin offsetting a slightly softer-than-expected top line and more opex than we expected. Furthermore, adjusted for FX losses, underlying earnings were well above our estimate and consensus. In short, we see this setting Atea up to track in line with our above-consensus estimates for 2025–2027 (which we have edged up) as well as multiples expansion. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NO...

Growth: check, margin: check, valuation: check

4% EBIT beat, solid 2025 guidance

Atea (Buy, TP: NOK160.00) - Set up for a strong run

While we have cut our estimates, we expect improving margins on recently launched frame agreements, continued hardware refresh cycles, and a potential shift in customer preferences for IT infrastructure deployment models to contribute to a return to double-digit EBIT growth, in line with or above its historical track record. Although there is clearly risk inherent in the ongoing trade war and recent competitive dynamics, Atea’s heavy exposure to the Nordic public sector should cushion it from su...

Growth to accelerate in 2025

Takeaways from WindEurope

At the WindEurope event in Copenhagen, we met with companies representing approximately 75% of the global offshore wind installation fleet, gaining insights that support a constructive outlook for the sector. Addressing recent investor concerns related to market growth, the industry has already reflected and anticipated recent downward adjustments in third-party forecasts. With respect to a slowdown ahead in the US market, a second investor concern lately, near-term vessel demand could surprise ...

DEME acquires Havfram

O&M filling the 2025 gaps

Cadeler (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Progressing well

Q4 EBITDA was solid, 12% above our forecast and consensus, and 94% of our 2025e EBITDA of EUR296m is supported by firm backlog. Newbuilds are progressing well, and given the backlog coverage, we find Cadeler well positioned to pay dividends in 2027, when all newbuilds are due to be delivered. We calculate a c30% FCF yield to equity after debt amortisation in 2027 (assuming flat NWC), and reiterate our BUY and NOK90 target price.

Solid end to '24, but '25 guidance below

Cadeler (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Execution today, reward tomorrow

In a market with focus on offshore wind headlines, we believe company-specific factors, such as solid execution and backlog build, will eventually benefit shareholders. We maintain our BUY and NOK90 target price.

Energy Morning - 18 March 2025

Norway: Best ideas Q1'25

Filling up 2025 gap with US contract

Renewable Weekly – 20 February 2025

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Weak Q4 margin shouldn't be extrapolated

New VRA looks solid

EBIT miss on lower GM

Energy Morning - 4 February 2025