Garmin Q1: 24% growth in Wearables

Logitech: higher demand, low inventory

Dexcom: inventory remains high

8% EBIT on beat

Out of the woods

We lift '24e sales by 11% and '25e by 5%. Further upside to '25-'26e: estimates still imply revenues below historical trend. BUY: TP up to NOK 135 (125)

SLAB Q1: positive Q2 outlook

Q2 guidance 20-40% above

Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...

NRC Group (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - New CEO’s plan in focus

NRC’s Q1s tend to be its low season, due to the Nordic winter effects, and we expect a seasonal loss in EBIT (results due at c07:00 CET on 25 May). However, announced order intake has been strong, including the order termination and excluding the EUR344m light rail alliance contract in Finland. In conjunction with the Q1 results, NRC is due to host a CMD, where the new CEO will present the new group strategy. We continue to see strong upside potential on an EBIT margin recovery and reiterate our...

NRC Group ASA: 2 directors

A director at NRC Group ASA maiden bought 9,430 shares at 10.800NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...

NRC Group (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - Q4 volume but not EBIT beat

Q4 was the first full quarter under new CEO Anders Gustafsson. Revenue, order intake, and order backlog beat our forecasts, but EBIT did not. The company is set to present a strategy update at a CMD in May (date to be announced), where we will look for further comments on how it intends to reach its long-term 5%+ EBIT margin target. We still see a high-risk margin recovery case, with ample upside potential if successful. We have pushed our recovery expectations back by one year and cut our 2024–...

Nordic Semiconductor ASA: 1 director

A director at Nordic Semiconductor ASA bought 6,000 shares at 98.300NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two yea...

BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Focus remains on Leqembi

The Q4 report was a non-event as Leqembi royalties had already been published. We believe investors will continue to focus on the Leqembi launch trajectory; however, we believe BioArctic’s pipeline will come into greater focus with the approaching start of the phase IIa trial for exidavnemab in Parkinson’s disease. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK350 (365).

Renovation regulation approaching

The ‘trilogue’ process regarding the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) that aims to double renovation rates of commercial and residential properties has been concluded, and the new legislative text is due to be published in spring 2024. Also, the recent pivot in market interest rates has improved the sector outlook, but with long profit lead times. Names with high short interest (JM and SBO) have rallied the recently, but we believe the current valuation underestimates the profit ...

Nordic Semiconductor (Hold, TP: NOK113.00) - Not completely out of the...

While we see several signs of end markets nearing trough inventory correction, meetings at CES with Nordic customers (noted still-elevated inventory levels), coupled with relatively high DOIs among publicly listed electronics distributors and manufacturers downstream from Nordic Semiconductor, has left us more cautious on its top line near-term. Thus, we have lowered our estimates (now below consensus) and have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), despite still having some optimism for H2.

Atea (Buy, TP: NOK180.00) - Buy ahead of 2024e upcycle

We have made only limited estimate revisions and are below consensus on EBIT for Q4 (tough comparables and a halted frame agreement in Denmark), while we are materially above consensus on 2024–2025e EBIT, as we expect an IT estate upgrade/refresh cycle from H2 2024 to benefit Atea. Furthermore, the stock continues to trade at an unwarranted discount to peers in our view, despite having appreciated towards the end of 2023. As such, we reiterate our BUY and NOK180 target price.

NRC Group (Buy, TP: NOK16.00) - No big news expected before CMD

New CEO Anders Gustafsson said NRC would host a CMD in May 2024, so we do not envisage much news with the Q4 results (due at c07:00 CET on 27 February) while he eases into the role. Long-term, we believe Mr Gustafsson will recycle some of his strategies from his time at Svevia, but not comment before the CMD. Having lowered the 2023 guidance in Q3, we do not expect the Q4 results to surprise. NRC remains a high-risk EBIT margin recovery case in our view, but with new bond financing in place, we ...

BioArctic AB: 1 director

A director at BioArctic AB sold 12,000 shares at 234.824SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Political agreement for EPBD

Yesterday evening saw a political agreement and the conclusion of the final trilogue meeting on EPBD revisions. There are some revisions to earlier drafts, but EU member states will now prepare requirements for lower energy building stocks. We believe that once in place this regulation should be a positive for construction companies, but CAPEX for real estate companies.

NRC Group (Buy, TP: NOK16.00) - A reset by the new CEO

The Q3 results were weaker than we expected. Also, the first quarterly report presented by new CEO Anders Gustafsson saw the 2023 guidance and 2024 growth outlook lowered. NRC indicated it would present a new strategy at a CMD in May 2024; we expect NRC could be planning to branch out into more civil projects. Given the more cautious outlook, more prudent profit recognition and weak market in Finland, we have cut our 2023–2025e EPS by c70–c30%. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price...