MTG (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Encouraging organic growth trend

MTG’s 2025 organic growth outlook of 3–7% YOY was a key positive in an otherwise difficult market for mobile gaming, in our view. However, the adj. EBITDA margin guidance of 21–24% fell shy of our expectation. We have only finetuned our 2025–2026e sales, but cut adj. EBITDA by 18–7% on the margin outlook, with some upside potential if synergies from the Plarium acquisition should materialise in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK130 (140).

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - First quarter including Plarium

Q1 will be the first quarter including the transformative Plarium acquisition (consolidated from 1 February), set to roughly double MTG’s revenue and adj. EBITDA. Our impression is organic growth trends have held up alright in Q1; however, the recent strengthening of the SEK has prompted a ~9% cut to our 2025–2026e revenue and EBITDA. We have lowered our target price to SEK140 (150) but reiterate our BUY.

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Set for transformative 2025e

Q4 organic growth of 9% YOY was more than enough to impress the market, and we are encouraged by Strategy & Simulation’s strong performance. 2025 is set to be a key year for MTG, balancing the transformative SEK7bn Plarium acquisition with sustained organic sales progress. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK150 (140) on our 3–5% higher 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA.

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - Transformative 2025e

Following MTG’s acquisition of Plarium (cSEK6.7bn upfront price tag), EBITDA and FCF are set to double. We have raised our 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA by >100% but note the transformed financial position of the company as the net cash position now turns into net debt amid a struggle to grow organic sales. We have raised our target price to SEK140 (120) and reiterate our BUY.

NBCUniversal Media LLC - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis

Summary NBCUniversal Media LLC - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights NBCUniversal Media LLC (NBCUniversal), a subsidiary of Comcast Corp, is a media and entertainment company. It develops, produces and markets entertainment, news, and information. The company owns...

MTG Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates for FX and small increases in our 2024–2026 adj. EBITDA margin forecasts, awaiting a stronger mobile gaming market (we remain cautious on user acquisition costs in a market only growing by low-single digits, we believe). We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our SEK120 target price. MTG is due to report its Q3 results on 07:30 CET on 24 October.

Swedish Small and Medium Caps Cases

Swedish Small and Medium Caps Cases

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK120.00) - Earnings growth the key positive

MTG reiterated its 2024 revenue guidance and now expects an adj. EBITDA margin at the upper end of its 26–29% guidance following Q2 results that showed a soft top line but an earnings beat. We have raised our 2024–2025e adj. EBITDA by 3% on higher margin expectations. While awaiting an H2 revenue growth improvement, we like the strong cash flow and reiterate our BUY and SEK120 target price.

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK120.00) - Stable Q2 expected

We reiterate our BUY and SEK120 target price ahead of MTG’s Q2 report (due at 07:30 CET on 18 July). While our 2024–2025e sales and EBITDA are mostly intact, we have shifted the phasing slightly more towards Q4e to reflect the H2-tilted release schedule. The cSEK2.5bn net cash position and ongoing SEK400m buyback programme continue to be clear positives in a still-tough environment for gaming stocks.

Modern Times Group AB: 3 directors

Three Directors at Modern Times Group AB bought/maiden bought 3,152 shares at 6.574SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the ...

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK120.00) - Profitable growth and buybacks

We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK120, following a >10% earnings beat in Q1. MTG gave a cautious revenue growth outlook for 2024 (+1-5% YOY) but with positive adj. EBITDA margin guidance (26–29%). It announced SEK100m of buybacks, with more likely to come following the AGM on 16 May. We have raised our 2024–2025e EBITDA by c3% and continue to like the MTG story, with market growth, good cost control and the ~SEK3bn net cash position.

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK110.00) - Positive trend continuing

We reiterate our BUY and SEK110 target price ahead of the Q1 report (due at 07:30 CET on 24 April). We expect decent Q1 organic revenue growth of 4% YOY and a margin increase to drive adj. EBITDA growth of 37% YOY. Our impression is that Nascar Manager has had a decent release and we see potential for games to scale well in a more benign environment for advertising. The SEK3bn net cash position benefits the case and we see scope for additional buybacks in 2024.

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK110.00) - Well-positioned for 2024

We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK110 (105) after raising our 2024–2025e adj. EPS by 4–3%, and our strengthened conviction in the profitable growth outlook. The market recovery has started, which together with a healthy new games pipeline for 2024 should underpin group organic revenue growth for the year as MTG continues to meet its targets.

Swedish small caps

Swedish small caps

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK105.00) - Entering 2024 on a high note

We expect MTG to achieve its organic revenue growth target, implying c6% organic growth YOY for Q4e, driven primarily by continued strong performance from PlaySimple and Ninja Kiwi. We have made only minor adjustments to our 2024e sales and adj. EBITDA, with a negative FX effect mostly mitigated by the consolidation of the acquisition of Snowprint Studios. We reiterate our BUY and SEK105 target price ahead of the Q4 report, due at 07:30 CET on 8 February.

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK105.00) - Play it simple, return to growth

We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK105 (90) after the strong Q3 results (EBITDA c30% above consensus) and rejuvenated conviction in the profitable growth outlook. In total, we have raised our 2023–2025e adj. EPS by c10% on average. We estimate an acceleration of organic revenue growth (7% YOY for Q4e) and the case also benefits from the healthy SEK4bn net cash, enabling further buybacks.

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Buybacks warming in the snow

We reiterate our BUY and SEK90 target price ahead of the Q3 results (due at 07:30 CET on 25 October), where we expect further stability (revenue +2% YOY) before a return to organic revenue growth in Q4e. We have slightly raised our 2024e EBITDA and found management’s comments reassuring that the Snowprint acquisition (SEK0.6bn) should not affect its ability to continue to focus on shareholder distributions.

Northern Lights

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Potential recovery in the making

We have raised our target price to SEK90 (85) and reiterate our BUY, reflecting our 8–2% higher 2023–2024e adj. EBITDA. Q2 was a clear step in the right direction, with a nearly 30% adj. EBITDA beat, and -2% organic revenue growth YOY was better than we expected. We believe this sets the stage for MTG to reach its 2023e revenue growth and EBITDA margin guidance, both reiterated in its Q2 report, ahead of a potential further market recovery for mobile gaming in H2.

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK85.00) - Upside potential revisited

We have upgraded MTG to BUY (HOLD), with an unchanged SEK85 target price following the weak share-price performance and ahead of a potential market recovery in H2. Some challenges remain, but we believe risk/reward has improved. We have raised our 2023e EBITDA by 6%, mainly to reflect positive FX trends. Also, signs that MTG is on track to meet its 2023 organic revenue growth target of -3% to +2% YOY could be a positive catalyst, while we believe the strong balance sheet remains a key positive.