Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK290.00) - Muted growth continues

The Q1 results were above expectations on lower-than-expected costs, while growth continued to be muted. We reiterate our SELL as we continue to find the valuation high relative to growth prospects, but have raised our target price to NOK290 (280) on increased estimates.

Trim the cost, be the boss

~20% better on lower cost

Q1: Group EBITDA +17% vs cons on 9% lower cost. Confidence in targets. Cons '25 EBITDA +5%, stock up 5-10%

Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK280.00) - Prisjakt sold at low price

Schibsted has signed an agreement to sell Prisjakt to eEquity for SEK500m. We find the price low, at c40% of our SOTP value, but find it positive that the company continues to simplify its portfolio to focus on Nordic Marketplaces. We expect a slightly negative share price reaction.

Prisjakt sold - closer to a pure marketplace

Prisjakt sold for SEK 500 / NOK ~2 per share

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Encouraging organic growth trend

MTG’s 2025 organic growth outlook of 3–7% YOY was a key positive in an otherwise difficult market for mobile gaming, in our view. However, the adj. EBITDA margin guidance of 21–24% fell shy of our expectation. We have only finetuned our 2025–2026e sales, but cut adj. EBITDA by 18–7% on the margin outlook, with some upside potential if synergies from the Plarium acquisition should materialise in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK130 (140).

Heads-up for report 7 May

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - First quarter including Plarium

Q1 will be the first quarter including the transformative Plarium acquisition (consolidated from 1 February), set to roughly double MTG’s revenue and adj. EBITDA. Our impression is organic growth trends have held up alright in Q1; however, the recent strengthening of the SEK has prompted a ~9% cut to our 2025–2026e revenue and EBITDA. We have lowered our target price to SEK140 (150) but reiterate our BUY.

Confidence hit

Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK280.00) - Falling short early, high hopes late...

We are significantly below consensus for Q1e EBITDA, expecting underperformance in all segments and verticals, except for Real Estate. We reiterate our SELL and have lowered our target price to NOK280 (290) on our estimate revisions. At our new target price, Schibsted would be trading at a c10% discount to our SOTP.

Norway: Best ideas Q1'25

Buy the dip, ride the flip

Online classifieds: Q4 wrap

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Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK290.00) - Uninspiring growth

The Q4 report was weak, with EBITDA 14% below consensus, reflecting soft growth in Nordic Marketplaces and higher costs than expected. We reiterate our SELL and on lowered estimates have cut our target price to NOK290 (300) – at which the stock would be trading at a 10% discount to SOTP and in line with peers on 2026e EV/EBITDA.

Tripped at the first hurdle; Q1 to improve

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Set for transformative 2025e

Q4 organic growth of 9% YOY was more than enough to impress the market, and we are encouraged by Strategy & Simulation’s strong performance. 2025 is set to be a key year for MTG, balancing the transformative SEK7bn Plarium acquisition with sustained organic sales progress. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK150 (140) on our 3–5% higher 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA.

Core 9% below, targets kept

Q4: Group EBITDA -13% vs cons: NMP, core, EBITDA 9% below on higher cost.Targets kept. Short term headwind on ad rev (and Jobs)

Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK300.00) - Time to Re(think)commerce

Recommerce’s transactional service is a key growth driver for Schibsted, despite its significant historical EBITDA losses. In this note, we have taken a closer look at what is needed to reach profitability in volumes and improved unit economics. We believe the 2027 CMD EBITDA target and consensus for the segment are optimistic, and that Schibsted should reconsider its strategic options to reduce losses and crystalise value. We reiterate our SELL and NOK300 target price.

Schibsted (Sell, TP: NOK300.00) - Car dealer package selections suppor...

Our tracking of car ads in Norway shows that a significant share of the dealers traded up from the Basis package despite significant price increases. We believe this supports consensus of double-digit revenue growth for Mobility in 2025.

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - Transformative 2025e

Following MTG’s acquisition of Plarium (cSEK6.7bn upfront price tag), EBITDA and FCF are set to double. We have raised our 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA by >100% but note the transformed financial position of the company as the net cash position now turns into net debt amid a struggle to grow organic sales. We have raised our target price to SEK140 (120) and reiterate our BUY.