We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK1,528m, largely in line with consensus for NOK1,496m (results due at 07:00 CET on 15 May). Ahead of the report we have increased our Q1 EBITDA estimates for Lerøy Seafood and Foodcorp. The first season quota in Peru was 2.5mt, above our estimate of 2.0mt; while some uncertainty remains for catch rates, the proportion of juvenile fish and fat content, we expect more information with the Q1 report. Nevertheless, a normalisation in Peru through 2024 is set to benefit the c...
Knowing who has the best farming locations, production areas and operations is key to assessing future performance potential. Our extensive asset quality research findings suggest SalMar has the best sites, and the best MAB portfolio, while Mowi has outperformed its benchmark the most and has the most conservative estimates versus our expectations. Grieg Seafood is the most undervalued and Lerøy Seafood has the highest margin rebound potential in our view.
Q4 EBITDA was NOK1,190m, 16–17% above our estimate and consensus, driven by Lerøy Seafood and Austral, while Pelagia fell short of expectations. We have cut our 2024e EPS by 7.3%, driven by Lerøy Seafood, Austral and Pelagia, but increased 2025–2026e by 3.8–6.4%. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to NOK108 (111).
Biological challenges, El Niño, algae blooms, cold water temperatures, overproduction challenges and string-jellyfish have led us to cut our global supply estimates. We now expect 0.9–3.3% global growth for 2024–2025e, have raised our salmon prices to EUR7.9–8.0/kg (7.6–7.9), and have introduced our 2026 forecast of EUR8.1/kg. We reiterate our positive view on the sector, with Mowi and Austevoll Seafood our top picks.
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