Good growth due to warm waters and reduced biological challenges have resulted in a material uptick in standing biomass and a favourable supply outlook. We have raised our 2025e YOY harvest growth to 7.1% (5.0%), driven by Norway, which we now expect to grow 6.9% (3.6%) YOY. We have cut our 2025–2027e spot prices to EUR7.2 (7.5) and EUR7.6 (7.8), corresponding to NOK84–89/kg. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 13–9% and reiterate our neutral view on the sector, expecting sideways movement until s...
Q4 EBITDA of NOK1,401m was 15–7% above our estimate and consensus, driven by Lerøy Seafood and Austral, while Pelagia missed expectations. The outlook for 2025 remains solid for Lerøy Seafood, but mixed for the stub. A DPS of NOK6.5 was proposed for 2024. We reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target price to NOK131 (133), based on our updated SOTP.
We expect Q4 EBITDA of NOK1,222m, 6% below consensus of NOK1,303m (the results are due at 07:00 CET on 28 February). Our EBITDA forecasts are NOK110m–43m below consensus for Lerøy and Austral, while we are NOK65m above for Foodcorp. For Br. Birkeland and Pelagia, we are broadly in line with consensus EBITDA. We have made slight changes to our 2024–2027 estimates, and reiterate our BUY and NOK133 target price.
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