Q3 sales were roughly half the level we expected – admittedly from a small base, but still a concern for us, since the miss was led by Germany, with much slower growth than recently. However, operating expenses were also less than we forecast, leaving an operating loss of SEK61m, a fraction better than our cSEK-63m. End-Q3 cash was SEK250m, which the company said would see it to positive cash flow in 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (4.5) on increased uncertain...
We expect Q3 EBITDA of NOK1,362m, 4% above consensus of NOK1,306m (results due at 07:00 CET on 14 November). Our forecasts are NOK10m–30m below consensus EBITDA for Lerøy and Pelagia, while we are NOK19m–26m above for Austral, Foodcorp and Br. Birkeland. We have slightly changed our estimates, and reiterate our BUY and NOK123 target price.
We remain positive on the sector, as we still find the valuation supportive at 2025–2026e P/E’s of 13-11x, with SalMar and Mowi as our top picks. For our 2025–2026 sector forecasts, we have increased global supply by 30–40kt on 3–4% growth, noting high regulatory risk in some regions, but have reduced our spot prices by EUR0.2/kg to EUR7.7–7.9/kg. We have also reduced production costs by NOK1.5–3.5/kg on prevailing feed input prices, and cut our 2025e EPS by 7% but raised 2026e by 6%.
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