Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Q1 report: drumming for clear AIR

If it's too good to be true, it usually is

Salmon prices higher on another blow to '24e supply, but farmers struggling to reap the benefits due to weak biology. Valuation not demanding, but more mixed triggers short term.

Improved visibility on Peruvian comeback

Q1e EBIT (core) of NOK 995m, -4% vs. FactSet cons. '24e/'25e EBIT -4%/+1%, largely driven by LSG. '24e P/E of 8x screens attractively; BUY, TP NOK 114 (106).

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK190.00) - Sales in Americas weaken

Revenues grew 3.5% YOY in Q1 (currency-neutral total sales grew 2.2%), below our estimate c6%. The EBIT margin of 24% was almost back to normal and in our view shows the low margin in Q4 2023 (16.4%) should be seen as a one-off. However, we remain concerned about revenue growth, especially in the Americas, after the fifth consecutive quarter of declining currency-neutral sales. Thus, while we reiterate our HOLD, we have lowered our 2024–2026e sales by c3–8% and cut our target price to NOK190 (21...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Austevoll Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK108.00) - Set for Peruvian rebound

We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK1,528m, largely in line with consensus for NOK1,496m (results due at 07:00 CET on 15 May). Ahead of the report we have increased our Q1 EBITDA estimates for Lerøy Seafood and Foodcorp. The first season quota in Peru was 2.5mt, above our estimate of 2.0mt; while some uncertainty remains for catch rates, the proportion of juvenile fish and fat content, we expect more information with the Q1 report. Nevertheless, a normalisation in Peru through 2024 is set to benefit the c...

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Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

The quality report

Knowing who has the best farming locations, production areas and operations is key to assessing future performance potential. Our extensive asset quality research findings suggest SalMar has the best sites, and the best MAB portfolio, while Mowi has outperformed its benchmark the most and has the most conservative estimates versus our expectations. Grieg Seafood is the most undervalued and Lerøy Seafood has the highest margin rebound potential in our view.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK210.00) - Decreased EBIT margin

Revenues were down in all regions in Q4, with currency-neutral total sales down c13.7% YOY. Due to various strategic initiatives, the EBIT margin was unusually low in the quarter, but we expect it to gradually come back to ‘normal’ levels of 25–30%. However, we have lowered our sales estimates, downgraded to HOLD and lowered our target price to NOK210 (260).

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Austevoll Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK108.00) - Salmon better, Pelagia softer

Q4 EBITDA was NOK1,190m, 16–17% above our estimate and consensus, driven by Lerøy Seafood and Austral, while Pelagia fell short of expectations. We have cut our 2024e EPS by 7.3%, driven by Lerøy Seafood, Austral and Pelagia, but increased 2025–2026e by 3.8–6.4%. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to NOK108 (111).

Vicore Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) - Q4 in line with expectations

We believe the Q4 report was somewhat of a non-event, and adjusted for two writedowns of intangible assets, the operating loss was in line with our forecast. For 2024, we look forward to the commencement of the phase IIb trial ASPIRE for IPF, and expect additional follow-up data from the single arm trial AIR in H1. We reiterate our BUY and SEK70 target price.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly