Protector (Buy, TP: NOK370.00) - Profitable growth set to continue

Helped by benign claims and a strong investment result, we expect Protector to report Q1 PTP of NOK753m, up 31% YOY. We see Q1e GWP ~17% higher YOY in local FX, driven by strong renewals and the French expansion, while we continue to forecast solid UK growth in connection with the upcoming 1 April renewals. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK370 (365).

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK90.00) - Margin volatility

After updating our model for the weaker Q3 results than forecast, we have reduced our 2024/25–2026/27e adj. EBIT by c9% on average as we expect lower profitability. We have cut our target price to SEK90 (105) and reiterate our HOLD on limited upside potential. While we expect improving organic growth, we have low confidence in the margin target (10% on EBIT) due to the margin volatility, and find the valuation fair.

Set for spicy growth

Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...

Nordic non-life insurance – Q4 reporting wrap

Who stands to benefit?

A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK365.00) - Strong underwriting momentum

Although Q4 earnings were weighed down by soft investments, the underwriting result increased by 39% YOY, helped by continued high premium growth and a strong combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio improved by 0.5%-points YOY, which, in combination with 19% YOY GWP growth as of 1 January 2025, bodes well for the investment case, in our view. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1%, and reiterate our BUY and NOK365 target price.

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK365.00) - Strong start to 2025

In our view, the solid Q4 GWP and 1 January volume update bode well for premium growth in 2025. Protector saw 1 January GWP growth of 19% YOY, in local currencies, helped by its recent entry into the French market. On the strong growth, we have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 2–5%, and our target price to NOK365 (350), while we reiterate our BUY.

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK350.00) - Set for strong 2025e momentum

Helped by continued repricing efforts across the Nordics, we expect Protector to report a solid Q4 underwriting result of NOK326m, with a seasonally strong combined ratio of 89.1%. Given the growth focus of Protector, and the seasonally low volumes in Q4, we await the important 1 January renewal date, forecasting ~14% local currency growth YOY, including France. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK350 target price.

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK105.00) - Closing in on margin target

Q2 2024/25 brought another strong adj. EBIT margin, and the CEO remains confident in overall market conditions. We have raised our 2024/25–2026/27e adj. EBIT by c8% on average, and our target price to SEK105 (85) dafter updating our valuation metrics. However, Systemair tends to see some performance volatility quarter to quarter (partly due to its project nature), and the stock is still trading above historical average multiples; with limited upside potential, we reiterate our HOLD.

Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK270.00) - Set for sequential CR improvement

We expect favourable weather conditions to support solid underwriting in Q3 (results due at 18:00 CET on 23 October), with PTP boosted further by a strong result from the bond portfolio. Despite it being a low-volume quarter, we forecast premiums to increase 13% YOY on repricing, UK volumes and FX. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e and reiterate our BUY and NOK270 target price.

Insurance trip: 14 insurers in three days

High price increases in non-life = margin expansion; Attractive dividend levels to come from life units; BUY stability from Sampo/Tryg; earnings growth STB/GJF

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - On the right margin path

Systemair’s gross margin gains reinforce our confidence in profitability from here. However, our 2024/25–2026/27 adj. EBIT forecasts are largely unchanged post-Q1, with lower top-line estimates broadly offset by higher margin assumptions. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK85 target price, with the valuation looking fair, minimal differences between our estimates and consensus, and the market already pricing in expectations of improving market dynamics and expanding margins.

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK270.00) - Large claims quarter

Q2 PTP was 5% higher YOY as strong investment performance helped offset a soft underwriting result affected by several large claims. Despite a combined ratio increase YOY, underwriting profitability remains strong at a normalised level, supported by ongoing price increases and portfolio readjustments. However, with lower-than-expected growth in gross written premiums (GWP) and a drop in bond yields, we have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–4%, and in turn our target price to NOK270(275), but reiterat...

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK275.00) - UK set for strong growth in Q2

We forecast Q2 PTP of NOK623m as Protector looks set to benefit from strong investment results and continued high premium growth, offsetting potentially higher large claims. We forecast a combined ratio of 88%; although 4.1%-points higher YOY, it should be partly offset by 21% YOY growth in insurance revenues. As the growth story in the UK unfolds, we continue to find the shares attractively valued. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK275 (270). The results are due at c19...

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Negative mix likely to continue

After a mixed Q4 (which was below consensus but above our forecast on adj. EBIT), we have raised our estimates as we are now slightly more positive on future margins. Given our updated estimates and recently expanded peer multiples, we have raised our target price to SEK85 (78), but reiterate our HOLD. We expect continued negative (YOY) margin trends in Q1 due to mix.

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK270.00) - Still growing in the UK

A strong underwriting performance, driven by insurance revenue growth of 37% YOY, was offset by softer investments in Q1, leading to PTP down 11% YOY. The combined ratio improved 2%-points YOY, despite harsh weather, helped by the UK Property segment. We see a continued strong growth outlook for Protector after the UK segment reported 28% local currency growth YOY as part of the 1 April GWP renewals. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 2% on the back of the improved underlying underwriting perf...

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK264.00) - GWP growth momentum building

We expect strong group GWP growth in Q1 to be partly offset by a more modest investment performance, resulting in PTP of NOK540m, down 16% YOY. Q1 is typically a low-volume quarter for the UK, but we expect continued strong growth from important 1 April renewals. We have made limited revisions to our 2025–2026e EPS, and reiterate our BUY and NOK264 target price.

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK78.00) - HOLD on lacklustre outlook

Q3 earnings were well below our estimate and consensus, and we have cut our 2023/24–2025/26e adj. EBIT by c15% on average, and in turn lowered our target price to SEK78 (90). Given the limited upside potential and our view of market conditions in Systemair’s most profitable regions remaining challenging and weighing on earnings, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY).

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK264.00) - Planning for French expansion

Protector reported a strong Q4 pre-tax profit of NOK840m, up 22%, driven by solid underwriting and good investment performance. As announced on 22 January, gross written premiums grew 48% in local currencies in Q4, while the combined ratio improved 4.2%-points YOY. In addition to the growth potential in the UK, Protector is planning to enter France. We have increased our 2024–2025e EPS by 7–10%, and raised our target price to NOK264 (222), reiterating our BUY.