Protector (Buy, TP: NOK350.00) - Set for strong 2025e momentum

Helped by continued repricing efforts across the Nordics, we expect Protector to report a solid Q4 underwriting result of NOK326m, with a seasonally strong combined ratio of 89.1%. Given the growth focus of Protector, and the seasonally low volumes in Q4, we await the important 1 January renewal date, forecasting ~14% local currency growth YOY, including France. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK350 target price.

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK105.00) - Closing in on margin target

Q2 2024/25 brought another strong adj. EBIT margin, and the CEO remains confident in overall market conditions. We have raised our 2024/25–2026/27e adj. EBIT by c8% on average, and our target price to SEK105 (85) dafter updating our valuation metrics. However, Systemair tends to see some performance volatility quarter to quarter (partly due to its project nature), and the stock is still trading above historical average multiples; with limited upside potential, we reiterate our HOLD.

Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK270.00) - Set for sequential CR improvement

We expect favourable weather conditions to support solid underwriting in Q3 (results due at 18:00 CET on 23 October), with PTP boosted further by a strong result from the bond portfolio. Despite it being a low-volume quarter, we forecast premiums to increase 13% YOY on repricing, UK volumes and FX. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e and reiterate our BUY and NOK270 target price.

Insurance trip: 14 insurers in three days

High price increases in non-life = margin expansion; Attractive dividend levels to come from life units; BUY stability from Sampo/Tryg; earnings growth STB/GJF

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - On the right margin path

Systemair’s gross margin gains reinforce our confidence in profitability from here. However, our 2024/25–2026/27 adj. EBIT forecasts are largely unchanged post-Q1, with lower top-line estimates broadly offset by higher margin assumptions. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK85 target price, with the valuation looking fair, minimal differences between our estimates and consensus, and the market already pricing in expectations of improving market dynamics and expanding margins.

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK270.00) - Large claims quarter

Q2 PTP was 5% higher YOY as strong investment performance helped offset a soft underwriting result affected by several large claims. Despite a combined ratio increase YOY, underwriting profitability remains strong at a normalised level, supported by ongoing price increases and portfolio readjustments. However, with lower-than-expected growth in gross written premiums (GWP) and a drop in bond yields, we have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–4%, and in turn our target price to NOK270(275), but reiterat...

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK275.00) - UK set for strong growth in Q2

We forecast Q2 PTP of NOK623m as Protector looks set to benefit from strong investment results and continued high premium growth, offsetting potentially higher large claims. We forecast a combined ratio of 88%; although 4.1%-points higher YOY, it should be partly offset by 21% YOY growth in insurance revenues. As the growth story in the UK unfolds, we continue to find the shares attractively valued. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK275 (270). The results are due at c19...

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Negative mix likely to continue

After a mixed Q4 (which was below consensus but above our forecast on adj. EBIT), we have raised our estimates as we are now slightly more positive on future margins. Given our updated estimates and recently expanded peer multiples, we have raised our target price to SEK85 (78), but reiterate our HOLD. We expect continued negative (YOY) margin trends in Q1 due to mix.

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK270.00) - Still growing in the UK

A strong underwriting performance, driven by insurance revenue growth of 37% YOY, was offset by softer investments in Q1, leading to PTP down 11% YOY. The combined ratio improved 2%-points YOY, despite harsh weather, helped by the UK Property segment. We see a continued strong growth outlook for Protector after the UK segment reported 28% local currency growth YOY as part of the 1 April GWP renewals. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 2% on the back of the improved underlying underwriting perf...

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK264.00) - GWP growth momentum building

We expect strong group GWP growth in Q1 to be partly offset by a more modest investment performance, resulting in PTP of NOK540m, down 16% YOY. Q1 is typically a low-volume quarter for the UK, but we expect continued strong growth from important 1 April renewals. We have made limited revisions to our 2025–2026e EPS, and reiterate our BUY and NOK264 target price.

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK78.00) - HOLD on lacklustre outlook

Q3 earnings were well below our estimate and consensus, and we have cut our 2023/24–2025/26e adj. EBIT by c15% on average, and in turn lowered our target price to SEK78 (90). Given the limited upside potential and our view of market conditions in Systemair’s most profitable regions remaining challenging and weighing on earnings, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY).

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK264.00) - Planning for French expansion

Protector reported a strong Q4 pre-tax profit of NOK840m, up 22%, driven by solid underwriting and good investment performance. As announced on 22 January, gross written premiums grew 48% in local currencies in Q4, while the combined ratio improved 4.2%-points YOY. In addition to the growth potential in the UK, Protector is planning to enter France. We have increased our 2024–2025e EPS by 7–10%, and raised our target price to NOK264 (222), reiterating our BUY.

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK222.00) - Strong end to 2023 and start to 2024

We believe solid 1 January renewals (GWP up 16% YOY in local currencies) should support still-strong growth in 2024. Protector also reported 48% growth YOY in GWP in local currencies in Q4. While 1 April is more key for renewals in the UK, we find the update supportive for continued strong growth for the group in 2024. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by 3–5% and our target price to NOK222 (208), and reiterate our BUY.

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK208.00) - Solid seasonal underwriting

We forecast Q4 PTP of NOK648m, 6% lower YOY, on a sharp drop in market interest rates and high claims from storms and cold weather (results due on 1 February). We expect a reported combined ratio of 93.6%, 2.9%-points softer YOY, together with still-strong growth in gross written premiums (GWP) of 30% YOY. We have reduced our 2024–2025e EPS by 3–4% on a stronger NOK and softer investment yields, and cut our target price to NOK208 (213), but reiterate our BUY.

Systemair (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Green shoots

Following the solid Q2 results, we have raised our adj. EBIT estimates by 2% on average for the next three years. Organic growth was stronger than we expected, and management was upbeat on demand ahead given recent order activity. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK90 (86).

Systemair (Buy, TP: SEK86.00) - Limited changes ahead of results

Systemair is set to report its Q2 2023/24 results on 7 December (time not known). We estimate Q2 sales of SEK3,090m (in line with consensus), while our 9.8% margin puts us c6% below consensus on adj. EBIT. We have updated our model and lowered our 2023–2025e adj. EBIT by c3% on average, and have thus cut our target price to SEK86 (90). We still see Systemair as a strong growth story to leverage increasing energy efficiency focus globally. We expect robust earnings growth medium- to longer-term, ...

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK213.00) - Good growth opportunities

Protector reported Q3 PTP of NOK122m, down YOY due to higher large claims, a total investment result only just above zero, and a reversal of insurance finance items. The combined ratio was 5%-points softer YOY as the ‘Hans’ weather event along with several other large losses led to elevated claims in the quarter. Growth in gross written premiums remained a strong 35% YOY in local currency. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by ~2% following increased growth, and reiterate our BUY and NOK213 targe...

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK213.00) - Strong growth offset by claims

We forecast Q3 EPS of NOK1.3 and PTP of NOK193m. Strong growth in the UK, together with increased interest rates, should help offset elevated weather-related claims in the quarter. Despite the soft equity performance, we expect an improved investment result YOY from stable interest rates QOQ and strong high-yield performance. We reiterate our BUY and NOK213 target price. The Q3 results are due at 18:00 CET on 19 October.

Northern Lights