EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Jeronimo Martins: small beat in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 4Q23 net profit in line with prelims, a miss vs. our initial forecasts due to lower gross margin NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: 4Q23 earnings call takeaways – supportive 2024E outlook POSITIVE • Shoper: earnings call takeaways – strong April, optimistic on 2024E outlook POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: MPC takes a pause, but hiking cycle not over yet • Uzbekistan macro: CBU keeps rates on hold • Polish banks: Polish Supreme Court reconfirms th...
In 2023, GTC launched – and eventually walked away from – an attempt to take over Ultima. Under new leadership, the company entered 2024 with an LTV of 49%, having made EUR 65m in FFO in 2023 (EUR 71m, if adjusted for non-recurring cost items). The key task ahead is the refinancing of the 2026E EUR 500m green bond. GTC plans to exit the Ireland data-centre development project, which could help it to repay part of the bonds. Importantly, it has secured permission to expand the technological campu...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: 1Q24 results – EBITDAaL up 5% yoy, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • VIGO Photonics: strong miss on EBITDA and bottom line NEGATIVE • GTC: 4Q23 – no material revaluation result, focus remains on refinancing ahead NEUTRAL • Poland macro: retail sales stay brisk in March • Hungary macro: MNB slows down pace of rate cuts • Kruk: 1Q24E preview (due on 8 May, after the close) • Bank Handlowy: 1Q24E preview (due on 9 May) • Eurocash: 1Q24E results preview – 16% yoy EBITDA ...
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: 1Q24 highlights Kruk: buys more portfolios in Italy • Tupras: launches USD 256m propylene investment NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: coverage UNDER REVIEW • Sipchem: 1Q24E results preview (due on 25 April) NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 1Q24E results preview – 11% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 April, before the open) • Erste Bank: 1Q24E preview (due on 30 April) • BRD-GSG: 1Q24E preview (due on 2 May) NEUTRAL • PKO BP: 1Q24E preview (due on 9 May) • Banca Transilvania: 1Q24E...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: reassessing the inflation and rates outlook to 2025E eop • Benefit Systems: strong momentum continues • Dom Development: volume growth, margins stronger for longer (stays BUY) • Kazakhstan macro: NBK keeps policy rate on hold, at 14.75% • Ford Otosan: to issue Eurobond • Bank Pekao: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • ING BSK: 1Q24E preview (results due on 7 May) • Short News (HUG)
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
HEADLINES: • Middle Eastern Oil Services: we’re going with what’s growing (ADNOC Drilling upgraded to BUY, Arabian Drilling downgraded to HOLD) • Public Power Corporation: 4Q23 earnings review NEUTRAL • Kruk: 1Q24 trading update shows strong recoveries POSITIVE • Budimex: 4Q23 figures in line with the preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Budimex: management recommends PLN 35.69 DPS (5% dividend yield), above our expectations POSITIVE • Polish utilities: Industry Ministry plans to link mines to coal-fi...
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 trading statement POSITIVE • OMV: 1Q24 trading statement NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 1Q24E CHF mortgage saga provisions land at PLN 507m NEUTRAL • Polish gencos: IndMin floats notion of alternative solution to the NABE NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (1-7 April) • Halyk Savings Bank: pays off State aid fully POSITIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the interview with the CTO NEUTRAL • Polish telecoms: mobile number portability in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Pub...
HEADLINES: • Budimex: stands out, but deserves a pause (downgraded to HOLD) • CCC: 4Q23 slightly below prelims; sales acceleration and gross margin widening in 1Q24E POSITIVE • PGE: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: the rise of the “Peter Magyar” phenomenon • Poland macro: local elections and NBP decision show continuity • Budimex: UOHS cancels decision on choosing BDX's offer for the D11 highway NEGATIVE • Budimex: potential new contract in road construction (PLN 0...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Türkiye – unprecedented CHP victory in local elections • PGE: 4Q23 fully in line with prelims NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: 4Q24 conference call takeaways POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • European oil and gas monthly: March 2024 – winter was survived, as expected • Poland macro: MPC keeps rates on hold, as expected • Romania macro: rates on hold, with a word of caution • Arabian Drilling: may have three offshore contracts...
HEADLINES: • Text: 4Q23-24 (calendar 1Q24) preliminary results – USD 21.7m preliminary cash flow (up 9% yoy, 2% qoq) NEGATIVE • Piraeus Port Authority: conference call takeaways • AROBS Transilvania Software: publishes 2024 budget NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: March bookings estimate at USD 14m, up 8% mom POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: March bookings estimate mom recovery, driven by Hunting Clash POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: 1Q24 update on card base fully in line with recent guidance NEUTRAL • Turkish a...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: 13% beat vs. our 4Q23 EBITDA forecast, on stronger revenues (CP77 IP) POSITIVE • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: mixed 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • Cimsa: 2023 financial results review • Tauron: reports 4Q23 EBITDA of PLN 674m , 44% lower qoq, but 83% higher yoy NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Romanian energy: government adopts emergency ordinance, with amended regulations for the energy sector NEUTRAL • Bank of Georgia: receives app...
HEADLINES: • Air Astana Group: a cash-accretive airline from the heart of Eurasia (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Elm: still a digital champion (stays HOLD) • PZU: reports solid 4Q23; high DPS potential POSITIVE • CEZ: misses on 4Q23 net profit, tepid 2024E guidance NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: strong 4Q23 beats expectations, but company trims 2024E guidance for card additions abroad NEUTRAL • Teknosa: mixed results in 4Q23 NEGATIVE • CA Immo: 4Q23 – all about the disposals POSITIVE • Brisa: 4Q2...
• Bank of Georgia: 4Q23 highlights and notes from the conference call • Halyk Bank: 4Q23 highlights • Arabian Drilling 4Q23 results and dividend announcement • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (11-17 March) • Romanian Energy: Energy Ministry draft publication of changes to current regulations • Huuuge Games: USD 6m investment in a minority stake in Bananaz Studios, with a call option for a larger investment • Huuuge Games: earnings call takeaways - solid 2024E outlook, broadly in line with o...
HEADLINES: • Huuuge Games: 4Q23 slightly above the consensus; up to USD 70m buyback announced (14% yield) POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23 results – weaker than expected NEGATIVE • Enea: announces significant impairment charges (PLN 2.9bn) affecting the FY23 figures NEGATIVE • MONETA Money Bank/Komercni Banka: negative impact from the drop in mortgage rates NEGATIVE • MOL: updated strategy for 2030E – conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Sarantis: key takeaways from the Investor Day • Allegro: key ta...
HEADLINES: • PKO BP: posts solid 4Q23/2023 results NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP on hold, with a cautious bias • CTP: 4Q23 – yet another quarter with a strong, positive revaluation gain POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q23 in line with expectations; FY24E guidance for possibly deeper margins erosion NEGATIVE • Electrica: rather disappointing 2024E budget NEGATIVE • Electrica: proposes RON 0.1178 DPS and looking to issue green bonds NEUTRAL • PGE: weaker qoq EBITDA in 4Q23, but expected NEUTRAL • Data...
HEADLINES: • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q23 – decent end to another very good year NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: strong set of results in 4Q23 POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: FY23 – ramping up, with almost 1k units sold in 2023 • Alkaloid: 4Q23 – reaping the benefits of recent investments • Alkaloid: rating and price target changes • European oil and gas monthly: February 2024 – return of the crack • Transgaz: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Auto Partner: February sales growth accelerates...
HEADLINES: • Telecom Egypt: 4Q23 results review – EBITDA up 24% yoy, 7% below the consensus NEUTRAL • Arcelik: weak operating performance in 4Q23 results NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (26 February-3 March) • 4iG: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Purcari Wineries: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: February bookings estimate at USD 13m, up 5% mom POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: February total bookings estimate flat mom, but further declines in ...
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