reports
- David Talpert
- Harry Botha
- Warwick Bam
Avior Financials | Coronation | Peregrine | Repo rate cut | Investment...
Coronation's Dec '19 institutional factsheets highlight impressive 2019 investment returns. We estimate Group Q1 FY ‘20f net outflows of R17.8bn and Dec '19 AUM to remain flat at R577bn. Peregrine's hedge funds generated strong returns in FY '19. We expect PGR to report improved performance fees in H2 ‘20f. > Due to heightened credit risk in the SA economy, SA Repo rate cuts are positive for SA banks' earnings growth prospects in our view (as lower impairment charges and higher advances g...
- David Talpert
- Harry Botha
Peregrine | A buyout or buyback
Peregrine Holdings (PGR) reported improved H1 '20 results as normalised HEPS increased by 15%. Citadel's 18% earnings growth offset disappointing results from Peregrine Capital and Stenham. We believe Citadel is a high-quality asset, which is not receiving a fair rating in the group structure as PGR trades at a discount to our SOTP fair value. We estimate a current fair value of R21.33/share. In our view, the market is applying a discount to PGR's NAV similar to other SA holding companies. ...
- David Talpert
Peregrine | Setting up for a rebound
Peregrine reported a 7% decline in FY '19 ongoing normalised HEPS as performance fees declined by 65%. The current earnings represent a low base with 92% annuity earnings. We believe PGR's earnings will rebound by 18% in FY '20f due to higher performance fees and a weak ZAR. In our view, despite a 10.5% historic dividend yield, the market is not putting sufficient value on the cash generative nature of PGR's capital light operations. We believe the share will rerate as PGR delivers improved earn...
- David Talpert
- Harry Botha
Peregrine | Slow and steady
Peregrine Holdings (PGR) has successfully transformed into a capital light wealth and asset manager. PGR has an offshore bias and benefits from a weak ZAR. We expect PGR to report reduced performance fees in FY ‘19. However, FY '19 earnings should represent a low base, we expect double-digit earnings growth in FY ‘20 as positive market returns and performance fees support earnings growth. We believe an improving outlook for earnings growth will support a rerating.
- David Talpert
- Harry Botha
Peregrine | More predictable
Peregrine Holdings' (PGR) H1 ‘19 results were probably the last set of numbers affected by the restructuring transactions over the last two years. The Group now has a capital light business and targets a dividend payout ratio of 80% to 90%. We expect the changes to support the share's rating. We expect performance fees to improve over the next three years. However, we do not expect PGR to consistently produce double-digit earnings growth. Therefore, while we believe the Group is underval...
- David Talpert
- Harry Botha
Peregrine | H1 '19 earnings preview
Peregrine Holdings (PGR) will report H1 '19 results on 21 Nov '18. We expect the weak ZAR to support earnings. However, we expect lower performance fees from hedge funds. We expect H1 '19 earnings (excluding Securities) to decrease by 2.4% YoY to 76cps (1.6% increase to 98cps including Securities). We expect a c.8.7% dividend yield and a share buyback equivalent to 7.5% of PGR's market cap to support the share price.
1 director bought
A director at Peregrine Holdings Limited bought 30,000 shares at 21.162ZAR and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
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