Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, BW Energy and Panoro Energy have been in the news. An oil discovery on the northern flank of the Hibiscus field was announced, and according to the partners, it is substantial in size. Also, Panoro Energy and BW Energy reported Q1 figures, which were fairly in line with expectations.

NCS production well above forecast

Preliminary Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) April production figures for the NCS showed solid liquids production of 2,104kboed, c5% above its forecast. Gas production was c347mcm/d, 7% above NOD’s estimate. In total, NCS production was down 2.4% MOM but up 1.9% YOY. On a company level, for March, Aker BP and Equinor saw Johan Sverdrup tailwinds, following a period of maintenance. Also, Vår Energi was up 4% MOM on an increase from Fenja, OKEA was down 3% MOM, and DNO was up 10% MOM.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - May 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Hexagon, Metso, Sandvik, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

US shale: limited growth expected

Our Q1 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). The companies now expect fewer tailwinds from cost deflation, primarily due to operational efficiencies. Our survey also suggested capex down ~2% YOY, as companies guide for flat activity. For Q1, our universe spent 102% of its operating cash flow, split c50/50 capex and shareholder distributions.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

Key takeaways from this week are: 1) BlueNord’s Q1 figures were in line with our estimates, and due to technical issues, the Tyra plateau ramp-up was prolonged to mid-Q4 (2024 production guidance reduced from >40kboed to ~35kboed); 2) DNO’s Q1 report showed net production slightly above consensus, and it announced it has acquired stakes in five fields in the Norne area from Vår Energi, adding ~3kboed of net production near-term; and 3) Panoro Energy’s Q1 trading update showed net production of 9...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on Aker BP highlighting our growing concerns of sharp cuts to consensus FCF, with capex assumptions beyond 2026 looking far too low to us – we are ~40% below consensus on 2027–2030e FCF. As well as BW Energy’s Q1 trading update revealing net production just below our estimate, it announced a sale & leaseback agreement, which we see as marginally accretive to our NAV. In other news, we believe the Tyra ramp-up will be in focus in BlueNord’s Q1 results, due next week

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The Q1 reports proved that sector companies could maintain record-high margins despite volume declines.

Temporary setback in Q1

Larger than expected impact from AOP in Q1 putting temporary pressure on growth and margins. Growth case intact, BUY and TP of SEK 34 unchanged.

Vimian (Buy, TP: SEK40.00) - Soft start, but successful issue

Q1 sales and earnings disappointed, largely explained by Medtech (negative annual ordering programme (AOP) effects) and one-off costs. With the oversubscribed SEK1.63bn rights issue completed, Vimian has financing to execute on M&A opportunities near-term. We reinstate a recommendation with a BUY and SEK40 target price.

Miss on earnings due to MedTech

Garmin Q1: 24% growth in Wearables

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Logitech: higher demand, low inventory

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi released their Q1 results. In short: Equinor reported on the strong side, with a solid FCF beat fuelled by a working capital tailwind. Aker BP had a solid Q1 all around, while there was limited new news on Johan Sverdrup. For Vår Energi, with the results in line with our expectations, we believe investor focus remains on the Jotun FPSO sail-away.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/26/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 26/04/2024

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Metso : Progress on margin reflected with resilience in Q1

>Q1 2024 orders in line but margin below expectations - Metso reported its Q1 2024 results yesterday morning (see first take). They were in line with expectations on order intake, but below expectations on adjusted EBITA (-7%).Order intake was down -6% on an organic basis (consensus -5.8%), but up 10.5% sequentially, confirming the rebound in activity that the group was anticipating in the Aggregates division (particularly in the US). Sales were down -7% on ...