In this note we dive deeper into the voluntary conditional exchange offer Aedifica made last week for all outstanding Cofinimmo shares. The bid is accretive for Aedifica on both an EPRA EPS and EPRA NTA basis. However, the possibility to go much higher, in case of a negative board recommendation, is limited.
Running up to the publication of the 1Q25 results on Friday, we have revised our estimates to the downside. For FY25, we currently expect the adj. EBIT to decrease by 32% to € 153m, or the low-end of the guided € 150-180m range despite an additional 7 months of Staci consolidation. Our estimates mainly reflect additional headwinds from the 2-week strikes, as well as some uncertainty related to the US tariff situation. Incorporating our new estimates into our model, we lower our TP from € 2.6 to ...
Kinepolis: Box office doubles in US/Canada, flat attendance in France. KPN: VodafoneZiggo goes for accelerated DOCSIS 4.0 roll out, answering infra question. Lotus Bakeries: CEO expects US$100m in sales in India by the end of the decade. Philips: 1Q25 results – Guidance lowered on tariffs. PostNL: 1Q25 in line with consensus; FY25 outlook reiterated
At GBL's Q1 2025 conference, newly appointed CEO Johannes Huth, former partner at KKR (now advisory partner), outlined a strategic shift towards more private capital to boost shareholder value. In private, the CEO sees no more than 3 verticals. Healthcare will remain important, next to consumer and potentially a third in light industrial. He targets double-digit total shareholder return and the reduction of the NAV discount by focusing on the investment process. GBL's zero LTV and €5.6 billion ...
BE Semiconductor Industries: Important TCB Next order. Belgian telcos: Telenet weak Q1 commercially across the board, financials reasonable. D'Ieteren: Belgian April car registrations down 5%, VW down 11%. GBL: NAV per share above estimates. Kinepolis: US Peer Cinemark 1Q25 results a slight miss. KPN: VodafoneZiggo 1Q25 very weak, cut guidance on EBITDA, revenue after 2 months
The 1Q25 NAVps fell 1.8% to €111.2 vs. €113.8 at FY24-end, mainly dragged down by listed assets. Largest declines came from SGS (-€168m), Pernod Ricard (-€306m), and Adidas (-€127m). Private healthcare assets Affidea (+€116m) and Sanoptis (€32m) partially offset the NAVps decline. Mgmt. remains committed to achieving double-digit total shareholder returns over the medium term, targeting €5b in disposals (~50% completed) between FY24–27 for reinvestment and shareholder distribution. During 1Q, GB...
Aedifica proposed a voluntary conditional exchange offer for all outstanding Cofinimmo shares. They offer 1.16 new Aedifica shares per Cofinimmo share. The offer values each Cofinimmo share at EUR 80.91, representing a 20.8% premium over Cofinimmo's “undisturbed” share price of EUR 67.00. and adjusted for the difference in proposed FY24 gross dividends. The offer is subject to a minimum acceptance threshold of 50%+1, a standstill by Cofinimmo and unconditional merger approval in Belgium, the Net...
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