Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Singapore equities delivered a strong January performance, with the STI rising 5.6% to fresh record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions that drove flight-to-safety flows. Manufacturing activity remained in mild expansion, led by electronics and AI-related demand. Market/corporate catalysts during the month include REIT earnings, IPO interest in Catalist and continued strength in gold-linked counters.
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
Our Alpha Picks outperformed the STI on a price-weighted and market cap-weighted basis but underperformed on an equalweighted basis. For Feb 26, we add CAO, RGL, HLA, and PROP and remove CLAR, KEP, MPM, and RSTON. The portfolio continues to be well-positioned ahead of expected EQDP-driven flows into small- and mid-cap stocks.
Top Stories Strategy | Singapore Outlook The Singapore market outlook webinar for retail clients received over 200 attendees. We outlined our 2026 strategy, highlighting large-cap picks (DBS, GENS, KEP, SE), small-mid-cap selections (FEH, VALUE, RSTON, CAO), and top five S-REITs (CLAR, KREIT, LREIT, CAREIT, NTTDCR). Key questions include potential EQDP beneficiaries, small-mid-cap stocks, property counters, banks and REITS. Market Spotlight • US stocks were higher on Thursday, with the DJI...
The Singapore market outlook webinar for retail clients received over 200 attendees. We outlined our 2026 strategy, highlighting large-cap picks (DBS, GENS, KEP, SE), small-mid-cap selections (FEH, VALUE, RSTON, CAO), and top five S-REITs (CLAR, KREIT, LREIT, CAREIT, NTTDCR). Key questions include potential EQDP beneficiaries, small-mid-cap stocks, property counters, banks and REITS.
Greater China Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit ...
We recently gave a presentation at the Singapore Equities Forum organised by the SAS and SGX. The forum covered a broad range of topics including the construction and property industries, as well as the small- and mid-cap sector. Stocks mentioned include DFI, FCT, FEH RSTON, VALUE, MPM, CSE, SANLI, ADDV and PRIME. Our small- and mid-cap top picks are FEH, VALUE, CAO and RSTON.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Greater China Sector Update | IT Hardware We see an acceleration in China’s AI development progress in 2026, with NVIDIA successfully obtaining the US government’s approval on H200 sales to China, which will provide a major boost to the Chinese the AI application users. We also believe that the shipment volume of domestic AI chips will receive minimal impact, with foreign chips acting as a “demand gap filler” while the establishment of a capable local supply chain remains the highest priorit...
We remain bullish on the Singapore market in 2026 given positive earnings growth prospects as well as funds flow momentum. We forecast a 2026 year-end target of 5,000 for the STI, implying an 8% upside from current levels. Key stock picks are CLAR, CLI, CIT, DFI, FR, GENS, KEP, OCBC, SE, ASL, CAREIT, CSE, FEH and VALUE.
Highlights • We remain bullish on the Singapore market in 2026 given positive earnings growth prospects as well as funds flow momentum. • We forecast a 2026 year-end target of 5,000 for the STI, implying an 8% upside from current levels. • Key stock picks are CLAR, CLI, CIT, DFI, FR, GENS, KEP, OCBC, SE, ASL, CAREIT, CSE, FEH and VALUE.
Greater China Economics | PMI December Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back in the expansionary zone for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved at 50.2 (+0.7pt mom), driven by a rebound in construction activity, while services PMI remained slightly contractionary pointing to weak domestic demand. Enterprise PMI showed divergent trends, with large firms leading the improvement. Overall, the December data points to uneven recovery despite the positive headline numbers....
Greater China Economics | Inflation November CPI inflation strengthened to 0.7% yoy (+0.5ppt mom), the highest since Feb 24, led by food inflation turning positive. Core inflation stayed at a year-high of 1.2% yoy, with goods inflation rising, but with services inflation easing slightly. PPI deflation deepened to -2.2% yoy (-0.1ppt mom), as raw materials’ inflation weakened despite notable gains in mining and quarrying. Overall, the persistent PPI deflation reflects the ongoing impact of weak en...
Easing trade war tensions and new customer orders should increase demand. VALUE’s valuation is highly attractive at 12x FY27F PE, a 30% discount vs Singapore peers’ at 16x. Its dividend yield of about 6% is over 100% higher than peers’ average of 1.4%. Net cash position of HK$1.1b is likely to further enhance shareholders’ return. Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.03.
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Our Nov 25 Alpha Picks portfolio returned 2.2% mom, in line with the STI, while weighted portfolios outperformed. Gains were led by CSE, ASL and MPM. For Dec 25, we add KEP, UGAI and SATS, and remove FRKN, UMS and SIA. The refreshed portfolio remains positioned to benefit from ongoing EQDP-driven interest in small-/mid-cap names.
Greater China Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in O...
Top Stories Company Results | Bumitama Agri (BAL SP/HOLD/S$1.48/Target: S$1.40) BAL reported 9M25 earnings of Rp1.87b, which met expectations at 70% of both our and Street estimates. 3Q25’s weaker sequential results were attributed to an inventory spike amid delayed shipments in Sep 25, with the related sales to subsequently be recognised in 4Q25. 9M25 production output remains on track to meet management’s FFB growth guidance of up to 5% for 2025, with peak crop cycle expected to be in 4Q25 for...
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