Greater China Economics | Inflation November CPI inflation strengthened to 0.7% yoy (+0.5ppt mom), the highest since Feb 24, led by food inflation turning positive. Core inflation stayed at a year-high of 1.2% yoy, with goods inflation rising, but with services inflation easing slightly. PPI deflation deepened to -2.2% yoy (-0.1ppt mom), as raw materials’ inflation weakened despite notable gains in mining and quarrying. Overall, the persistent PPI deflation reflects the ongoing impact of weak en...
Easing trade war tensions and new customer orders should increase demand. VALUE’s valuation is highly attractive at 12x FY27F PE, a 30% discount vs Singapore peers’ at 16x. Its dividend yield of about 6% is over 100% higher than peers’ average of 1.4%. Net cash position of HK$1.1b is likely to further enhance shareholders’ return. Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.03.
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Our Nov 25 Alpha Picks portfolio returned 2.2% mom, in line with the STI, while weighted portfolios outperformed. Gains were led by CSE, ASL and MPM. For Dec 25, we add KEP, UGAI and SATS, and remove FRKN, UMS and SIA. The refreshed portfolio remains positioned to benefit from ongoing EQDP-driven interest in small-/mid-cap names.
Greater China Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in O...
Top Stories Company Results | Bumitama Agri (BAL SP/HOLD/S$1.48/Target: S$1.40) BAL reported 9M25 earnings of Rp1.87b, which met expectations at 70% of both our and Street estimates. 3Q25’s weaker sequential results were attributed to an inventory spike amid delayed shipments in Sep 25, with the related sales to subsequently be recognised in 4Q25. 9M25 production output remains on track to meet management’s FFB growth guidance of up to 5% for 2025, with peak crop cycle expected to be in 4Q25 for...
1HFY26 PATMI is in line with our expectation. Higher-margin products lifted gross margin. VALUE’s valuation remains attractive at 12x FY27F PE and an around 6% yield (about 35% discount vs peers’ 19x PE and approximately 100% higher yield of 3%). Maintain BUY with a 24% higher target price of S$1.03. Catalyst: increasing shareholders’ return from its HK$1.1b net cash (around 50% of market cap).
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
Our Alpha Picks portfolio gained 8.5% mom in Oct 25, outperforming the STI’s 3.0%. Strength came from MPM, RSTON and CSE. For Nov 25, we add CIT and ASL as BUYs and introduce SIA as a short candidate. The portfolio remains poised for expected EQDP-driven flows into small-/mid-cap names in the next few months.
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Staying Ahead And Capturing EQDP Opportunities Our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 4.2% mom in Sep 25, outperforming the STI’s 0.7%. Gains were led by YZJ, VALUE, MPM and CSSC. For Oct 25, we add SCI, LREIT and RSTON, and take profit on BRC and YZJ. We remain well-positioned for upside in small-/mid-cap stocks. Market Spotlight • US stocks ended higher on Thursday. Despite mixed sector performances, the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all advanced. • The FSSTI gained 7...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s EV sales surged 25% wow in the 39th week of 2025 but slowed to 10.5% yoy amid a high base and anti-involution efforts. Geely and XPeng outperformed, while BYD and Li Auto saw yoy sales declines. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector, with top BUYs on CATL and Geely; we downgrade Ganfeng Lithium from BUY to HOLD with an unchanged target price of HK$40.00, as the stock price has hit our target. Indonesia Economics | Indonesia’s Trade Balance Hits Mu...
Our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 4.2% mom in Sep 25, outperforming the STI’s 0.7%. Gains were led by YZJ, VALUE, MPM and CSSC. For Oct 25, we add SCI, LREIT and RSTON, and take profit on BRC and YZJ. We remain well-positioned for upside in small-/mid-cap stocks.
SGX will be launching a new index that tracks the next tier of large and liquid companies to better showcase Singapore’s broader equity market. We expect this to benefit small-mid cap stocks. We have identified a potential list of 39 Mini STI constituents. Our top picks are Food Empire Holdings, Sheng Siong, CSE, China Sunsine, Marco Polo Marine and Valuetronics.
Top Stories Strategy | Small Mid Caps SGX will be launching a new index that tracks the next tier of large and liquid companies to better showcase Singapore’s broader equity market. We expect this to benefit small-mid cap stocks. We have identified a potential list of 39 Mini STI constituents. Our top picks are Food Empire, Sheng Siong, CSE, China Sunsine, Marco Polo Marine and Valuetronics. Market Spotlight US stocks ended mixed on Wednesday, with the DJIA gaining while the S&P 500 and NASD...
Top Stories Strategy | Yield-ing to temptation: Yields over bonds With bond yields trending lower, dividend equities yielding 4% to 6% look compelling relative to the 10-year Singapore Government Bond, with sustainable payouts supported by strong cashflow, low gearing, and resilient balance sheets. Our top 10 non-bank, non-REIT picks include BRC, BAL, CSSC, CIVMEC, CD, DFI, GENS, VALUE, VMS, and WKS. We maintain our end-2025 STI target at 4,602, implying around 8% upside, underpinned by undem...
Attractive yield differentials. With Singapore government bond yields trending lower, the yield differential between fixed income and equities has narrowed in 2025, thus reinforcing the relative appeal of companies offering high, sustainable dividend payouts. Equity yields in the 4-6% range now offer a compelling pickup versus the 10-year Singapore Government Bond yield (1.8579% as at 4 Sep 25), while also providing potential for capital gains. In our view, this widening yield gap should support...
Our Alpha Picks portfolio delivered another month of strong performance, rising 11.4% mom in Aug 25 to overwhelm the STI’s 2.3% gain. On a market cap-weighted basis, the portfolio gained 3.2% mom, also ahead of the benchmark by 0.9ppt. For Sep 25, we add BRC for its construction exposure and YZJSGD for its new order flow and inexpensive valuations, while locking in gains on CICT, CD and PROP.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: Double Happiness Again In Aug 25 Our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 11.4% mom in Aug 25, overwhelming the STI’s 2.3% gain. Add BRC, YZJSGD; remove CICT, CD, PROP. TRADERS' CORNER First Resources (FR SP): Trading BUY Singapore Exchange (SGX SP): Trading SELL
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Tech Manufacturers Picking three tech winners of MAS’ EQDP; top BUYs: FRKN, UMS, VALUE. Update Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (FLT SP/BUY/S$0.87/Target: S$1.15) 3QFY25: Double-digit reversion from Australia; rapid backfilling in Singapore. Frencken Group (FRKN SP/BUY/S$1.67/Target: S$2.08) Positive indicators for the semiconductor segment; raise target price by 49%. TRADERS' CORNER Delfi (DELFI SP): Trading BUY ...
Tech manufacturing stocks with good earnings growth visibility and positive catalysts should continue to see valuation re-rating as the valuation gap of 35-40% vs Malaysian peers remains wide. Our top picks are Frencken (target price: S$2.08) and UMS (target price: S$1.73) given their positive outlook of sequential earnings growth from their semiconductor customers. We also like VALUE for its attractive valuation and renewed growth profile from new customers. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector.
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