reports
- Linus Sigurdson
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) Bure reported Q3 results, outperforming the SIXRX by more than 5%-points; 2) VEF’s largest holding, Creditas, reported Q3 numbers, with origination improving 17% QOQ ahead of a profitable growth reacceleration and potential listing; 3) Apotea (10% of Creades’ unlisted assets) announced its intention to go public before year-end; and 4) Kinnevik’s chair is set to step down in 2025.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) Latour reported c9% NAV growth QOQ in Q3, outperforming the SIXRX, while the premium to our NAV is now only 2%; 2) Aker raised its dividend payout policy to 4–6% of NAV, giving it the sector’s highest dividend yield; and 3) Bure is due to report its Q3 results tomorrow, 8 November.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) VNV Global wrote down its unlisted portfolio by 3% QOQ in its Q3 report, as its Gett sale remains under regulatory review; 2) starting in this issue, we include Spiltan Invest in our sector overview (SEK9.2bn NAV with the key asset being Paradox Interactive); and 3) Latour is set to report Q3 results next week.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) our deep dive into Kinnevik’s ‘core growth companies’; 2) our lowered target price of SEK105 for Kinnevik, following the Q3 results; 3) our raised target price of SEK330 for Investor; 4) our lowered target price of SEK375 for Industrivärden; and 5) our reduced target price of SEK68 for Flerie.
- Linus Sigurdson
Industrivärden (Hold, TP: SEK375.00) - Portfolio view less positive
We maintain a positive view on large parts of the portfolio, including an assumption of 19% 12-month forward NAV growth. That said, with the near record-low discount of 2%, we believe investors are still better off investing directly in the underlying assets, which are trading at a portfolio-weighted P/E of c13x, a ~25% discount to the OMXS30. We remain on the sidelines and reiterate our HOLD, and have lowered our target price to SEK375 (380), reflecting our more neutral view of its core holding...
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) VEF’s portfolio looks to be in a good place ahead of its Q3 report (due at 08:00 CET on 23 October), but is still trading at a 43% discount to NAV; 2) starting in this issue, we include Byggmästaren in our sector overview; and 3) Kinnevik, Investor, Industrivärden and Flerie are set to report Q3 results next week.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) we expect low-single digit NAV growth QOQ in Kinnevik’s Q3 report; 2) we hosted an investor lunch with Flerie, where we see upside potential from NAV growth and a discount contraction; and 3) we published a sector update, highlighting our impressions from meeting with 13 investment company CEOs over the past few weeks.
- Linus Sigurdson
Pick your contender
Following our ‘investment company weeks’ at DNB Markets in Stockholm, we give a brief update on our view of the sector and summarise our impressions from lunch presentations with 13 investment company CEOs. From a broader perspective, we note the increased investor interest in the sector, as well as the structurally lower discounts to NAV, albeit not in the VC-oriented companies. We continue to have Investor as our sector top pick, with additional BUYs on Latour, Kinnevik, VEF and Flerie.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) we hosted investor lunches with the CEOs of Svolder and Byggmästaren at our Stockholm office; 2) we met with Investor, which is continuing to execute on its M&A agenda; 3) we met with VEF, which is seeing positive momentum for fintech VCs in its core markets of Brazil and India.
- Linus Sigurdson
- Linus Sigurdson
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) we upgraded Latour to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK332 (285), as we see enough positives to look beyond the steep premium to NAV; 2) we upgraded Lundbergs to HOLD (SELL) and raised our target price to SEK555 (510), as we believe the negative triggers have long since played out and have a more positive view on its real estate exposure; and 3) Investor announced a new CFO. Also, tomorrow marks the start of our ‘investment company weeks’ at DNB M...
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) we initiated coverage of Flerie, a life science investment company that offers investors access to a rare part of the Nordic healthcare ecosystem, with a BUY and SEK70 target price; 2) Latour’s newly created business area Innovalift made a significant acquisition; and 3) we will host a series of lunches with Nordic investment companies’ CEOs at our Stockholm office in September. The Weekly Navigator will now take a summer break until late August.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) we raised our target price to SEK325 and reiterated our BUY in Investor, as we believe the shrinking discount to NAV is warranted; 2) we reiterated our BUY and SEK3.5 target price in VEF, and like the profitable growth story in its largest holding, Creditas; and 3) Creades reported Q2 NAV up 8% QOQ, and we note the 20% raised valuation of Klarna.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) we reiterated our HOLD and SEK380 target price on Industrivärden, underlining our positive portfolio view; 2) we reiterated our BUY on Kinnevik, but lowered our target price to SEK112 (135), reflecting the SEK23 capital distribution; and 3) we believe FX and multiples headwinds could potentially offset operational strength in VEF’s Q2 report (due at 08:00 CET on 17 July).
- Linus Sigurdson
Industrivärden (Hold, TP: SEK380.00) - Much to like, but fairly valued
We continue to like Industrivärden’s underlying assets, with BUYs on ~95% of the assets making up its NAV (including core holdings Volvo and Sandvik), and our assumption of 23% 12-month forward NAV growth. That said, with the near record-low discount of 5%, we believe investors are still better off investing directly in the underlying assets, which are trading at a portfolio-weighted P/E of c14x, a ~20% discount to the OMXS30. We remain on the sidelines and reiterate our HOLD and SEK380 target p...
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week we highlight: 1) Bure acquired a SEK450m stake in presentation software provider Mentimeter, expanding its unlisted portfolio; 2) we believe Kinnevik could lower its unlisted portfolio values by 4% based on market prices as of 27 June; 3) following recent negative news flow, Kinnevik is trading close to our bear-case fair value.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor hosted a sell-side lunch with its new CEO, Christian Cederholm; 2) Patricia Industries’ strong performance over the past decade and its role in Investor’s investment case; and 3) Svolder’s Q3 2023/24 results showed that Swedish small-caps have started to return to form.
- Linus Sigurdson
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