The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) with Q1 coming to a close, we highlight valuation trends YTD for Investor, Kinnevik and Latour; 2) Klarna’s prospective IPO would have both direct and indirect effects on Swedish investment companies; and 3) Flerie is set to take Toleranzia private in an all-shares deal.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor-owned Advanced Instruments agreed to acquire Nova Biomedical for USD2.2bn, creating Investor’s second-largest unlisted holding; 2) Svolder reported Q2 2024/25 NAV up 10% QOQ, outperforming the CSRX at 5%; 3) we see 24% NTM NAV growth potential in Bure’s portfolio; and 4) VNV further postponed its proposed USD83m sale of Gett.

Advanced Instruments makes major acquisition

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) the Wallenberg sphere announced new roles for members of the sixth generation, including on the board of Investor; 2) following serial acquirer Röko’s IPO this week, we highlight the attractive valuation of Latour’s unlisted assets; and 3) as the dividend season approaches, we note the seasonal contraction of NAV discounts.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we met with Investor, and note its rising SAAB exposure in light of increasing European defence spending; 2) Tiger Global led a USD75m funding round in Kinnevik-owned Mews at an undisclosed valuation; 3) VEF’s largest asset, Creditas, reported a solid Q4; and 4) Creades and Flat Capital made new investments.

Latour Investment AB: 1 director

A director at Latour Investment AB bought 3,417 shares at 292.700SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we see Q1 tailwinds for VEF after the sharp decline in its NAV in Q4; 2) Kinnevik peer multiples have seen healthy progress YTD, we believe setting the stage for further NAV growth in 2025; 3) Byggmästaren reported its Q4 NAV; and 4) following the Q4 reporting season, we note Svolder’s sector-leading 10-year DPS CAGR of ~20%, underpinned by a 10-year NAV CAGR of 18%.

Meeting the CEO - takeaways

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor held a sell-side meeting with its new CFO Jenny Ashman Haquinius; 2) Latour made an acquisition and expanded its loan framework; 3) we reiterated our HOLD on Lundbergs following its Q4 report; 4) Bure reported Q4 NAV down 5% QOQ; and 5) Flat Capital reported Q4 NAV and sold its stake in Truecaller at an IRR of 47%.

Lundbergs (Hold, TP: SEK555.00) - Flat NAV YOY expected in 2025

Q4 saw Lundbergs’ NAV growth slightly underperform the SIXRX as the Lundberg sphere continued to build its position in Industrivärden. While we like its defensive characteristics and long-term investment horizon, we believe near-term NAV and TSR upside potential is limited at these levels. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK555 (540), reflecting a balanced portfolio view (including key assets Industrivärden, Indutrade and Holmen, and our neutral real estate sector stan...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Latour’s Q4 report supported our view of a good earnings growth in 2025e, with scope left for additional M&A; 2) we remain on the sidelines for Industrivärden following its Q4 report; 3) Lundbergs is due to report Q4 results next week; and 4) Bure is also scheduled to release its report Q4 next week, following a strong 2024.

Latour (Buy, TP: SEK340.00) - M&A sets 2025e up nicely

Following a solid Q4 report, Latour’s unlisted Industrial Operations look set for ~15% 2025e EBIT growth, driven by the numerous acquisitions made LTM, suggesting an implicit 2025e EV/EBIT of 25x, or a notable discount to M&A compounder peers. We note the improved cost base should demand return quicker than expected and see scope for further acquisitions during the year. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK340 (335), based on: 1) NAV growth of 11% from its listed portfoli...

Industrivärden (Hold, TP: SEK400.00) - Remaining neutral on 2025e

We have a neutral view on ~60% of Industrivärden’s fully replicable portfolio, including key holdings Volvo and Sandvik. At the current discount to NAV of 4%, we still believe investors are better off investing directly in the underlying assets, which are trading at a portfolio-weighted P/E of c14x, a ~12% discount to the OMXS30. We remain on the sidelines and reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK400 (375), reflecting forward NAV growth of 8% and a discount to NAV of 10%, r...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we raised our target price on Kinnevik to SEK110 (105) following QOQ NAV growth in Q4; 2) our bullish view on Latour’s 2025e earnings growth potential ahead of its Q4 report, due on 11 February; and 3) insider purchases at Investor, in our view a signal to look beyond the relatively small discount to NAV.

Kinnevik (Buy, TP: SEK110.00) - Have perk, will travel

Kinnevik’s Q4 marked an important return to NAV growth QOQ, driven mainly by the USD200m up round in TravelPerk (16% of assets), led by external investors EQT and Atomico. Continued operating progress in the core companies (set for >40% NTM revenue growth YOY), along with possible further up rounds, should help drive positive NAV revisions in 2025, while potential buybacks or signs of an IPO in e.g. Spring Health could drive a rerating of the still-high discount to NAV of 36%. We reiterate our B...

Momentum builds for 2025e

Strong Q4 slightly above ABGSCe

The weekly navigator

Highlights from the past week were: 1) Kinnevik-owned TravelPerk raised USD200m in an externally led funding round c40% above Kinnevik’s Q3 valuation; 2) we lowered our target price for VEF to SEK2.9 following its Q4 report; while 3) we maintained our SEK68 target price for Flerie, and note recent insider purchases; and 4) VNV reported its Q4 NAV was up 1% QOQ as Voi reached adj. EBIT breakeven.

TravelPerk news reinforces our positive view

VEF (Buy, TP: SEK2.90) - Adverse valuation headwinds

Q4 saw a major NAV decline QOQ, as key asset Creditas faced FX and peer multiples headwinds, resulting in a 44% lower mark QOQ. That said, our impression is underlying operations continue to progress ell, and we are encouraged by VEF starting to execute on exits. We have lowered our target price to SEK2.9 (3.6), following the Q4 valuation reset, but reiterate our BUY as we still see scope for NAV growth and a discount re-rating from continued exits, deleveraging and potential buybacks.