The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor bought shares in EQT for the first time since its 2019 IPO; 2) ahead of Kinnevik’s 12 May AGM, we highlight the return of Cristina Stenbeck as chair and the potential for share buybacks at a 40% discount to NAV; and 3) Lundbergs bought shares in its existing holdings for SEK512m.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we lowered our target price for Latour to SEK300 (340) following a Q1 report with a slight NAV decline but strong organic order intake growth; 2) Investor bought 6.3m Ericsson shares, and we highlight its successful top-ups in the name; 3) insider purchases at Investor are in our view a signal to look beyond a relatively small discount to NAV; and 4) Flat Capital reported Q1 NAV down 1% QOQ.

Latour (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Orders the key positive

Q1 saw solid acquisition-driven sales growth in Industrial Operations but with currency movements putting pressure on profitability; organic order intake growth was 10% YOY, supporting the near-term outlook, and the earnings call left us with a positive impression on the demand situation despite the ongoing uncertainty. We find Latour well placed to pass on the cost of potential tariffs to customers and see margin upside potential from the improved cost base once markets improve. We reiterate ou...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we lowered our target price in Investor to SEK320 following a 9% write-down of Patricia Industries in its Q1 report; 2) we reduced our target price in Kinnevik to SEK100 to reflect macroeconomic headwinds, but remain positive ahead of Cristina Stenbeck’s return as chair; 3) we cut our VEF target price to SEK2.5 on FX movements and see re-rating potential from e.g. ongoing buybacks; and 4) we lowered our target price in Flerie to SEK57 given worsening funding ...

Kinnevik (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Set for a new chapter

Kinnevik’s Q1 unlisted NAV writedown of 10% QOQ was in line with our expectations, with currency headwinds as the main driver. Cristina Stenbeck’s return as chair of the board should in our view improve investor sentiment and, given fewer opportunities to invest in its focus areas, we see a greater likelihood of share buybacks. Macro uncertainty will likely continue to affect NAV, but the operational performance of its core companies should continue to drive underlying improvements in the coming...

Positive core trends support NAV upside

Q1: better than feared

VEF (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Executing on exits and buybacks

Q1 saw 1% NAV growth QOQ in USD terms, as operational progress and FX effects (mostly relating to the BRL) offset multiples contraction. We are encouraged by the recent partial exit of Juspay at a 37% IRR, 4x CoC and valuation in line with NAV, and see further near-term upside potential in this name. We have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (2.9), mainly on the USD headwind versus the SEK, but reiterate our BUY, as we still see scope for a re-rating from continued exits, deleveraging and the recen...

Weak Q1 expected, but value still compelling

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we are encouraged by the return of Cristina Stenbeck as chair of Kinnevik, and believe it could result in a lower discount to NAV; 2) VEF completed a milestone partial exit of Juspay at a 37% IRR, putting it on track to pay down debt and repurchase shares at a 50% discount to NAV in the near term; and 3) for Industrivärden, we recently reiterated our HOLD and lowered our target price to SEK345 (400), as we see risk to the earnings outlook of its portfolio com...

Industrivärden (Hold, TP: SEK345.00) - Caught in a market headwind

We remain on the sidelines following Industrivärden’s Q1 report, reiterating our HOLD but with a lowered SEK345 (400) target price. While this reflects forward NAV growth of 26%, we have raised our target discount to NAV to 20% to account for the current macro situation (potential near-term volatility in its portfolio companies’ earnings outlook). We see clearer near-term value in its main owner Lundbergs given its defensive portfolio characteristics, a lower portfolio-weighted US exposure and a...

The return of Stenbeck and major board refresh — positive

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we expect FX and multiples headwinds to weigh heavily on Kinnevik’s Q1 report; 2) VEF’s NAV looks set to grow by low single digits QOQ in USD terms; and 3) Industrivärden is due to report Q1 results next week, ahead of which we highlight a more attractive near-term investment story in its main owner Lundbergs.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) with Q1 coming to a close, we highlight valuation trends YTD for Investor, Kinnevik and Latour; 2) Klarna’s prospective IPO would have both direct and indirect effects on Swedish investment companies; and 3) Flerie is set to take Toleranzia private in an all-shares deal.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor-owned Advanced Instruments agreed to acquire Nova Biomedical for USD2.2bn, creating Investor’s second-largest unlisted holding; 2) Svolder reported Q2 2024/25 NAV up 10% QOQ, outperforming the CSRX at 5%; 3) we see 24% NTM NAV growth potential in Bure’s portfolio; and 4) VNV further postponed its proposed USD83m sale of Gett.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) the Wallenberg sphere announced new roles for members of the sixth generation, including on the board of Investor; 2) following serial acquirer Röko’s IPO this week, we highlight the attractive valuation of Latour’s unlisted assets; and 3) as the dividend season approaches, we note the seasonal contraction of NAV discounts.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we met with Investor, and note its rising SAAB exposure in light of increasing European defence spending; 2) Tiger Global led a USD75m funding round in Kinnevik-owned Mews at an undisclosed valuation; 3) VEF’s largest asset, Creditas, reported a solid Q4; and 4) Creades and Flat Capital made new investments.

Latour Investment AB: 1 director

A director at Latour Investment AB bought 3,417 shares at 292.700SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we see Q1 tailwinds for VEF after the sharp decline in its NAV in Q4; 2) Kinnevik peer multiples have seen healthy progress YTD, we believe setting the stage for further NAV growth in 2025; 3) Byggmästaren reported its Q4 NAV; and 4) following the Q4 reporting season, we note Svolder’s sector-leading 10-year DPS CAGR of ~20%, underpinned by a 10-year NAV CAGR of 18%.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor held a sell-side meeting with its new CFO Jenny Ashman Haquinius; 2) Latour made an acquisition and expanded its loan framework; 3) we reiterated our HOLD on Lundbergs following its Q4 report; 4) Bure reported Q4 NAV down 5% QOQ; and 5) Flat Capital reported Q4 NAV and sold its stake in Truecaller at an IRR of 47%.