For Apr 24, our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 0.4% mom on an equal-weighted basis, underperforming the STI slightly by 1.7ppt. It was a mixed performance from our portfolio with the top performers being MPM, BAL and CD while FRKN, LREIT and ST underperformed. Our Alpha Picks portfolio has outperformed the STI in three out of the past four months. For May 24, we add FEHT, MPACT, GENS; remove BAL, LREIT and CLAS.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal International. Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pick up; take...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy The Impact Of Escalating Middle East Tensions A fluid situation with oil prices the key worry. Small/Mid Cap Highlights BRC Asia (BRC SP/BUY/S$1.94/Target: S$2.42) 1QFY24: Strong results as construction demand recovers. TRADERS’ CORNER Aztech Global (AZTECH SP): Trading BUY Isdn Holdings (ISDN SP): Trading BUY
Our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 6.0% mom on an equal-weighted basis, outperforming the STI by a material 3.4ppt. The outperformance was driven by broad-based strength across most of our portfolio with the best showing coming from Riverstone, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding and Singtel. In 1Q24, our Alpha Picks portfolio surged by 13.7% qoq, surpassing the STI by a hefty 14.2ppt qoq. For Apr 24, we add CSE and LREIT while removing MINT, CVL and FEH.
Although the FSSTI recorded a decline of 0.4% mom in Feb 24, more than half of our picks, especially the small/mid-caps (Frencken, Marco Polo Marine and Food Empire), recorded decent gains. Our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 1.6% mom on an equal-weighted basis, outperforming the FSSTI by 2.0ppt. For Mar 24, we add Riverstone, and take profit on SATS and Valuetronics.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PEV market share rebounds; price war heats up. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: XPeng. Top BUY: CATL, Tuopu and Desay SV. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$12.68/Target: HK$19.50): 2023: Results miss; mixed signals from the results. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$242.80/Target: HK$262.00): 4Q23: Passable results. Maintain HOLD. NetEase (9999 HK/BUY/HK$176.20/Target: HK$202.00): 4Q23: Earnings miss; upcoming blockbusters in 2024. New...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results AEM Holdings (AEM SP/HOLD/S$2.14/Target:S$1.94): 2023: Revenue meets forecast but 2024 guidance misses expectation; maintain HOLD. First Resources (FR SP/BUY /S$1.42/Target: S$1.65): 2023: 2H results below expectations as downstream losses are greater than expected due to negative margins for both refiner and biodiesel. Better outlook in 2024. Riverstone Holdings (RSTON SP/BUY/S$0.675/Target: S$0.88): 2023: Strong earnings beat, attractive 2024 yield of around 10%. Sin...
YZJ reported results that were above expectations with shipbuilding margins of 22% for 2023 being the key highlight. Three positive takeaways from our investor meeting with management were: a) shipbuilding margins to maintain at above 20%, b) shipping segment to grow profits yoy, and c) there is an outside chance that new order wins could exceed its new 2024 target of S$4.5b. Maintain BUY. Target price upgraded to S$2.19 (S$1.92 previously).
In Jan 24, our Alpha Picks portfolio beat the STI by 2.7ppt and 0.7ppt on an equal- and market-weighted basis respectively, as the STI slipped into negative territory. Stocks began the year on a subdued note with the external environment remaining uncertain. For Feb 24, we add Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) as we see dividend upside and potential earnings upgrades from its upcoming results and remove Seatrium (STM) as uncertainty over the size of its 2023 write-offs may weigh in the short term.
Our bullish outlook for the offshore marine sector remains unchanged with both shallow and deepwater assets marching well past 5–8-year highs, supported by a high oil price. After struggling with instability in 2023, the outlook for offshore wind in 2024 appears much better with policy support providing further impetus for growth. We remain optimistic that the industrials and shipyard sectors in Singapore can repeat their share price outperformance in 2024. Sector rating: OVERWEIGHT.
While demand for offshore marine assets remains strong, the offshore wind sector has been beset by negative sentiment in the US East Coast whereas Europe remains strong and stable, in our view. Our positive investment thesis for STM centres around capacity constraints for quality global shipyards that can deliver offshore projects at scale, especially given the current cycle which we expect to be long in duration and resilient. Sector rating: OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: 11.11 Campaign – Value-for-money strategy to support growth revival. Update AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/ HK$70.90/Target: HK$95.00): Maintain high VONB growth in 3Q23; outperforms peers. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$15.24/Target: HK$16.80): 3Q23 results preview: Expect strong earnings beat on elevated margins. INDONESIA Sector Cement: Earnings in line, potential double-digit growth for 2023-24 NPAT. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. MALAYSIA Sector Property: Property companies und...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Manulife US REIT (MUST SP/BUY/US$0.058/Target: US$0.180): 3Q23: Inching closer to resolution on loan restructuring. Venture Corporation (VMS SP/BUY/S$12.19/Target: S$14.06): 9M23: Results miss expectations; upgrade to BUY on more compelling valuation. Update Wilmar International (WIL SP/HOLD/S$3.64/Target: S$3.80): Expecting gradual recovery amid geopolitical uncertainty and slower economy growth. Palm refining and soybean crushing are the two mains challenges into 4Q23...
YZJ’s 3Q23 business update indicated that the company remains on track to have another strong year for profits and new order wins, backed by an excellent track record in vessel deliveries. In 9M23, new orders for tankers have overtaken containerships. However, new global emissions standards could provide continued impetus for new orders in 2024. Maintain BUY. Raise target price to S$1.92.
Demand across the offshore marine asset classes has continued since our last update in Jul 23. Company managements’ comments during the 1H23 reporting season in the US and Europe indicated a strong belief that the current cycle will be resilient and have a long duration. With oil prices likely to remain at elevated levels in the medium term, sentiment towards the sector should be positive, in our view. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector. Key stock pick is Seatrium.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins against a weakening macro backdrop. Add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Aug 23: Our picks: MYOR, BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, SMGR and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Warming Up For Better Months Ahead: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI in Aug 23. Sep 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB, Mr DIY, My EG Servi...
On a market cap-weighted basis, the STI outperformed our Alpha Picks by 0.3ppt, which was helped by our industrial stock picks. On a price-weighted and market-cap weighted basis, however, our portfolio significantly underperformed due to Sea Ltd. We note that our Alpha Picks portfolio has nevertheless beaten the STI in 16 out of the past 18 months. For Sep 23, due to favourable tailwinds for its data centre segment, we add MINT while removing RFMD from our Alpha Picks portfolio.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking: 2Q23 round-up: Steep hikes in dividends plus potential for capital management. Results Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC SP/BUY/S$13.04/Target: S$18.22): 2Q23: Delivered resilient earnings and promised dividend payout. Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP/BUY/S$5.60/Target: S$7.20): 1H23: Powered-up profits with strength in conventional energy the highlight. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of S$7.20. Venture Corporation (VMS SP/HOLD/S$14.38/Target: S$14.60): 2Q23...
GREATER CHINA Sector Shipping and Ports: Global trade outlook is likely to stay subdued in the near term but valuations of shipping and port names are attractive. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: CSH and CSP. Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/HOLD/HK$12.22/Target: HK$13.60): 2Q23 results preview: Elevated margins to support earnings recovery. INDONESIA Results Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ/BUY/Rp11,250/Target: Rp14,800): 2Q23: Core net income doubled on the back of margin expansion. MALAYSIA Update Malays...
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