reports
- Toby Thorrington
Kendrion - Termination of coverage
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on ABC Arbitrage (ABCA), paragon (PGN), Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL), Kendrion (KENDR), Lithium Power International (LPI), Triple Point Energy Transition (TENT), 4iG (4IG), e-therapeutics (ETX), Pharnext (ALPHA) and Shield Therapeutics (STX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our web...
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
- Frank Claassen
Kendrion - Selling Automotive, focus on Industrial
• Kendrion sells most of its Automotive business, but at a low implied multiple of 3.4x EV/EBITDA. • Kendrion will now focus on Industrial with higher growth and margins.• Although the remaining Kendrion will become more attractive, in our view this already largely reflected in its implied valuation. We therefore stick to our Hold and TP of EUR 14 p/s which implies a target EV/EBITDA for the remaining Kendrion of 7-7.5x.
- Toby Thorrington
Kendrion - Higher visibility on realising FY25 targets
Market trends in Q423 were like Q323, with Kendrion’s Industrial segment under pressure and Automotive in recovery due to higher pricing and new projects. On 7% y-o-y lower revenues, EBITDA was down 14%, slightly below our expectations. Kendrion is now more confident in realising its FY25 targets (revenue of around €636m and EBITDA margin of 15%) as it has more visibility on the ramp up of new projects, while being bullish about its pipeline, based on electrification and clean energy trends. We ...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ageas: FY23 - DPS +8%, S2 ratio 217%, strong Asia even with FX headwinds. ASM International: 4Q23 results, weak start to 2024. Deceuninck: Turkey continues to surprise positively. DEME Group: Handsome set of FY23 results. Fugro: Double digit growth expected. Just Eat Takeaway.com: FY23 results, supportive EBITDA guidance. Kendrion: Balance sheet risk reduced UCB: Material beat to consensus in 2H23, 2024 outlook in line with consensus
- Frank Claassen
Kendrion - Industrial still on the brakes
• Q4-23 missed due to an ongoing slowdown in Industrial brakes. • Although H1-24 trading conditions will likely remain challenging, Kendrion is ‘optimistic' about its performance in 2024. It also repeats its 2025 financial targets, but these look increasingly out of reach to us.• We stick to Hold and our TP of EUR 14 based on 1-year forward target EV/EBIT of 10-11x.
- ING Helpdesk
- Toby Thorrington
Kendrion - Industrial weaker, Automotive still in recovery
Kendrion’s segments showed opposite trends in Q323 with Industrial Brakes hard hit by weaker economies in Germany and China and Automotive still in recovery mode with continued high single-digit organic revenue growth. On 6% lower group revenues EBITDA declined 12% with a 70bp lower margin at 10.5%. Kendrion expects the challenging market conditions to continue in Q423 and H124 and has taken measures to protect its profitability. We have lowered our revenue estimates for FY23–25 by 5–8% and EBIT...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Atenor: EGM approves capital increase up to c.€161m at €5 issue price. Belgian telecoms: Proximus resells edpnet To Citymesh. Cofinimmo: French Cofinimur I portfolio – disposals completed. Kendrion: Start of a slowdown in industrial brakes. KPN: CMD 2027 targets in line with consensus, 2024 a bit on the low side. OCI: 3Q23 results weak on pricing, 4Q23 more optimistic. UCB: Moonlake fails to make a splash in PsA
- Frank Claassen
Kendrion - Industrial hits the brakes
• Q3-23 missed, mainly due to a significant slowdown at industrial brakes, Kendrion expects the short-term outlook to remain challenging.• We expect to lower our EBITDA estimates by close to double-digits.• We stick to Hold and lower our TP from EUR 17 to EUR 14, based on a target EV/EBIT of around 10-11x.
- ING Helpdesk
- Tijs Hollestelle
Kendrion/Keeping going, but 2H end market demand slow/BUY
We remain positive about the medium to long term prospects of Kendrion but concede that short to near term visibility is rather poor. Economic conditions remain very volatile, and it is hard to spot clear underlying trends in Kendrion's key end markets. We also do not have much insight in the potential incremental revenue and profit contribution from the now-operational new Chinese facility. Kendrion has increased its addressable market potential with the new Chinese capacity - this extra busine...
- Toby Thorrington
Kendrion - Price increases largely drive revenue growth
Kendrion’s Q223 organic revenue growth of 9% was better than the 5% in Q1 despite the slowdown in economic activity in several regions. Gross margin remained under pressure due to cost increases. EBITDA increased slightly year-on-year in Q2 after a decline in Q1, as cost savings offset wage inflation. Despite the short-term uncertainties, Kendrion is positive about its orderbook, which is driven by electrification and clean energy trends. On lower margin estimates, the average of our valuation m...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Agfa-Gevaert: Weak 2Q23, disappointing outlook for Agfa Healthcare. DEME Group: Preview - we expect solid 1H performance. Flow Traders: Dull lull. Kendrion: Strong 2Q, market conditions challenging. Van Lanschot Kempen: 1H23 Preview - powered by strong inflows. Vopak: Final Investment Decision on fourth tank at Gate
- Frank Claassen
Kendrion - Q2 below expectations due to higher costs
Q2-23 was below our expectations due to higher cost levelsThe medium-term outlook is promising, but the short-term is more unpredictable due to economic uncertainty.We rate the shares a Hold and cut our TP from EUR 19 to EUR 17, based on the expected cut in our estimates and a target EV/EBIT of 10-11x.
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
AEGON: 1H23 strong, Div yield cum SBB remains >15 BAM: A bump in the bumpy road to recovery. B&S Preview: Dealing with inflation. Colruyt: Transforming itself into a holding company. Fastned: 1H23 - Lower growth, higher profit. Kendrion Preview: The new factory is now open! Kinepolis: Strong 1H23, eyes on a very strong July and the Hollywood strike impact
- Toby Thorrington
Kendrion - Q123 – good revenue growth at lower margins
Kendrion’s Q123 results were mixed with good revenue growth of 5% but an unexpected decline in EBITDA of 7%. Gross margin was under pressure due to Kendrion passing on material price inflation at no margin and lower direct engineering revenues in Automotive. We have adjusted our estimates only slightly downward as the positive energy transition trend is still intact. Our estimates for FY23–25 reflect a revenue CAGR of 7%, an EBITDA CAGR of 18% and a normalised EPS CAGR of 27%. The unweighted ave...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ABN AMRO: 1Q23 Preview. Agfa-Gevaert: 1Q23 in line, potential delay in IT Healthcare FY EBITDA growth. Kendrion: 1Q EBITDA misses but key trends intact. OCI: 1Q23 EBITDA miss, fundamentals improving, strategic review formalized. Sif Group: Preview - back to business. TKH Group: Expands machine vision business
- ING Helpdesk
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