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Kristof Samoy ... (+2)
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Wim Hoste
Kristof Samoy
  • Kristof Samoy

Aalberts Macro outlook calls for reality check, 2026 recovery less pro...

We have revisited our scenario for Aalberts in light of persistent political instability in France and the continued publication of uninspiring leading indicators. With the company's substantial exposure to both the French and German markets, and its reliance on automotive and machine-building as key end markets, we have revised our 2026 organic growth forecast downward to 1.6%. We expect consensus to follow in the coming months. Despite the (historically) cheap valuation, we downgrade the stock...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: Preview - difficult YoY comp in Semi division. Arcadis: Returning to organic growth in 3Q25. Shell plc: A bit ahead of expectations. Vopak: No many changes in 3Q, solid story continues

Tijs Hollestelle
  • Tijs Hollestelle

Aalberts/Model update/BUY

Ahead of Aalberts 3Q25 trading update (due 23 October) we update our financial 2025-27F forecasts. Aalberts interim results arrived slightly below our estimates, and end market conditions in our view have not improved in 3Q25. We lower our FY25 adjusted EBITA margin estimate to 13.5%, now in line with Aalberts' recent outlook. Our FY26 forecasts now include the acquisition Grand Venture Technologies as we expect the take-over to finalise towards the end of this year (delisting date at or around ...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ageas: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. Alfen: Highlights from ING Benelux Conference London. Arcadis: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. ASR: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. BAM: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. Basic-Fit: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. CTP: Highlights from ING Benelux Conference London. DEME Group: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. Fugro: Highlights ING Benelux Conference London. Heijmans: Highlights ING Bene...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

REVISED VERSION - Benelux Morning Notes - updated to include IBA news

CFE: 1H results a bit light, FY outlook maintained. CMB.TECH: VLCC reasonable, pressure on Dry Bulk rates. dsm-firmenich: Givaudan CMD; Strategy 2030. Gimv: Investing in specialised healthcare services in the Netherlands. IBA: More sales but at lower margin

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+6)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
Wim Lewi
  • Wim Lewi

AEX from 25 to 30, place your bets Our candidates for the AEX expansio...

The AEX is set to expand from 25 to 30 constituents starting on 23rd September, announcement on 9th September after close. This marks a significant change since its last expansion in 1994. The new rule book was published on 22/08/25 and leaves some room for interpretation for companies that have another primary listing (WDP). We believe that WDP meets the requirement for “reference market”. The expansion will be based on Free Float Market Capitalization, with a buffer zone to manage transitions....

Thymen Rundberg ... (+2)
  • Thymen Rundberg
  • Tijs Hollestelle

Alfen/Near-term outlook remains clouded/HOLD

Alfen reported broadly in line 1H25 results and maintained its 2025 outlook but lowered its 2026 revenue growth and adjusted its EBITDA margin guidance. As a result, we cut our FY26F revenue estimate by c.4% and our FY26F EBITDA estimate by around 16%. Alfen's Smart Grid division reported rather weak production volumes in 2Q25 and a very low quarterly gross margin, which increased the overall risk profile of the company. The Smart Grid division has the most attractive fundamental characteristics...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

AEGON: Addition of €200m to existing SBB, considering US domicile, results mixed. Alfen: 19% EBITDA cut, mid-point new 2026 guidance. Flow Traders: Positive volumes, negative volatility. Kinepolis: Strong profit beat on better operating leverage, higher ticket and ITS per visitor. Recticel: Peer Rockwool 2Q25 results. Tessenderlo: Solid 1H25 beat, guidance maintained. VGP: Strong results, more news on JVs to come

Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Mahaut Arnaud ... (+3)
  • Mahaut Arnaud
  • Paul de Froment
  • Thomas Mordelle

Alfen: H1 2025 results, mid-term outlook lowered

Alfen published H1 2025 figures yesterday. Revenue came in at EUR211.5m (-13.9% YoY vs. EUR245.7m in H1 2024) mainly with challenging dynamics in EV charging and Energy Storage, while benefiting from favourable base effects in Smart Grids, which was impacted by moistening issues in Q2 2024. This wa

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