reports
- Sevgi Onur
Turkish Banking Sector - Initial glance into 2026: Funding mix to driv...
Macro outlook: The CBT has reduced the policy rate by 950bps to 38% in YE25. For the subsequent cycle, we expect the policy rate to decline to 30% by 2026E, with a more gradual, rather than steep, trajectory of quarterly margin improvements throughout 2026. Inflation is projected to ease to 31% in FY25 and 23.2% in FY26, down from 44.4% in 2024. For the valuation of CPI-linked securities, we use an Oct–Oct inflation assumption of 24%. Turkish banks are transitioning from CPI-driven to spread-d...
- Sevgi Onur
Turkish Banking Sector - Well-positioned for the long-awaited rate cut...
Turkish banking sector is poised for strong earnings rebound in 2025-2026, driven by recovering margins and an improving macroeconomic backdrop. After an estimated 18% sector-wide EPS decline in 2024, aggregate EPS is forecast to surge by 63% in 2025, followed by another 61% growth in 2026. Key drivers include a significant NIM recovery amid rate cuts, continued (though moderating) fee income growth, and normalization of trading gains. Sector ROAE is projected to rise to 27% in 2025E and 33% in...
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
Markets were calmer last week as investors continue to look towards potential rate cuts in the US in September. Chair Jerome Powell at his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, 23 August, sent strong signals that the Fed is ready to cut key rates. “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear". Markets now price up to 100bp in US key rates cut till the end of the year and a further 125bp of cuts next year. We view the macro backdrop as supportive for EM credit, while new sup...
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
PUMA PUMA ENERGY ZAMBIA PLC
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
103M SASOL LIMITED
QNBFB QNB FINANSBANK A.S.
TSKB TURKIYE SINAI KALKINMA BANKASI AS
TTRAK TURK TRAKTOR VE ZIRAAT MAKINELERI A.S.
VAKBN TURKIYE VAKIFLAR BANKASI TURK ANONIM ORTAKLIGI
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE N.V.
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
Turkish bank sector update/Moving forward
We believe that Turkish banks passed the lowest point of the year in terms of net interest margins (NIM) in 2Q24. With some aspects of full-year guidance tweaked after the first-half reporting season, we now expect these banks' performance to be broadly in line with the updated FY24 targets.
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
QNBFB QNB FINANSBANK A.S.
TSKB TURKIYE SINAI KALKINMA BANKASI AS
VAKBN TURKIYE VAKIFLAR BANKASI TURK ANONIM ORTAKLIGI
ZRGYO ZIRAAT GAYRIMENKUL YATIRIM ORTAKLIGI AS
- Duygun Kutucu
Turkish Banking Sector
We anticipate that the relaxation of the regulatory framework and a return to more conventional policies will positively impact the banking sector. TL commercial loan/deposit spreads (front book), which had plummeted to as low as -18% by the end of June, have reached 6.6%, thanks to the removal of a cap on lending rates and lower deposit rates. Taking these favourable developments and strong 2Q23 results into account, we are raising our aggregate FY23 NI estimate for the sector by 10%. We now fo...
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly and bank sector update
While key central bank meetings passed this week without any major upset, the short-term outlook for EM is likely to be driven by global risk factors such as US banking system concerns and the debt ceiling. Spread widening could open up value given expectations for a more supportive medium-term backdrop.
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly update
With signs of some stabilisation in global markets, EM credit performed well this week. We see potential for the positive momentum to be sustained in the near term, with spreads still at elevated levels and EM nations largely insulated from recent banking stresses.
- Egor Fedorov
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly update: trade ideas review
Buying opportunities in EM bonds? Yes, if you believe the key rates hiking cycle is soon at its end… Next week we hope the volatility amplitude will calm down following contained stress in financial markets caused by recent troubles in the US and EU banking systems, emergency actions and further tightening of monetary conditions. EM credit spreads technically widened recently, and cautious demand emerged. In this report we review our trade ideas we made before the storm started.
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