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ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun
Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Lower prices and costs

We remain positive on the sector, as we still find the valuation supportive at 2025–2026e P/E’s of 13-11x, with SalMar and Mowi as our top picks. For our 2025–2026 sector forecasts, we have increased global supply by 30–40kt on 3–4% growth, noting high regulatory risk in some regions, but have reduced our spot prices by EUR0.2/kg to EUR7.7–7.9/kg. We have also reduced production costs by NOK1.5–3.5/kg on prevailing feed input prices, and cut our 2025e EPS by 7% but raised 2026e by 6%.

ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun
 PRESS RELEASE

Grieg Seafood ASA: Q3 2024 trading update

Grieg Seafood ASA: Q3 2024 trading update Grieg Seafoods harvest volume for the third quarter of 2024 was approximately 17 700 tonnes GWT. Harvest volume (tonnes GWT) by region for the quarter: Rogaland: 8 500 Finnmark: 6 000 British Columbia: 3 200 Newfoundland: 0 (zero) The complete Q3 2024 report will be released on Wednesday 27 November 2024, at 06:00 CET. For enquiries, please contact: Andreas Kvame, CEO Cell phone: +47 907 71 441 Atle Harald Sandtorv, CFO Cell phone +47 908 45 252 About Grieg Seafood Grieg Seafood ASA is one of the world's leading salmon farmers. Ou...

ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun
ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun

Got 99 problems, but sea lice ain't one

We expect EBIT of NOK -205m (cons. NOK -168m). Key risk is Norwegian margins (BC pre-warned at Q2). Needs a successful outcome of Canada review: BUY.

Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Introduction to the salmon sector

This report provides an overview of the dynamics, companies, history, challenges and opportunities of the salmon farming industry. Biological challenges and stricter regulations over the past decade have curbed the supply of salmon, a globally consumed product with a strong ESG angle. Significant infrastructure investments made by the companies to solve these challenges have not yet yielded materially higher supply, leading to continued high salmon prices. Despite higher EBIT margins the sector ...

Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Lower tax proposed

The largest opposition party (Høyre) has launched a new draft proposal for its next parliamentary election programme. One of the suggestions is a lower and less bureaucratic resource tax. In the event of a 15% resource tax (down from 25%), we calculate the following preliminary 2025–2026e EPS impacts on the companies we cover: Grieg Seafood (15%), SalMar (12%), Lerøy Seafood (9%), Måsøval (8%), Mowi (7%), and Bakkafrost (0%). While this is only a proposal, we believe it will likely materially li...

 PRESS RELEASE

Grieg Seafood ASA (OSE: GSF) - Fixed Income Investor Calls

Grieg Seafood ASA (OSE: GSF) - Fixed Income Investor Calls Grieg Seafood ASA has mandated DNB Markets and Nordea as Global Coordinators and Green Bond Advisors and ABG Sundal Collier as Joint Bookrunner to arrange a series of fixed income investor calls commencing on 9 September 2024. Subject to, inter alia, market conditions, a NOK denominated senior unsecured green bond issue with a 4-year tenor may follow. In conjunction with the contemplated bond issue, Grieg Seafood ASA will offer a conditional buyback in GSF01 ESG. For further information, please contact:Atle Harald Sandtorv, ...

Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Grieg Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK69.00) - Clear potential trigger

Following the profit warning, we forecast Q3 operating EBIT of NOK-218m, below consensus of NOK-167m. In our opinion, the case hinges on Grieg Seafood reducing capex and improving the balance sheet by either selling the Canadian operations or entering a partnership (guided to be concluded by end-Q3/early-Q4). We reiterate our BUY and NOK69 target price and believe a Canada announcement could be a share-price trigger.

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