Good growth due to warm waters and reduced biological challenges have resulted in a material uptick in standing biomass and a favourable supply outlook. We have raised our 2025e YOY harvest growth to 7.1% (5.0%), driven by Norway, which we now expect to grow 6.9% (3.6%) YOY. We have cut our 2025–2027e spot prices to EUR7.2 (7.5) and EUR7.6 (7.8), corresponding to NOK84–89/kg. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 13–9% and reiterate our neutral view on the sector, expecting sideways movement until s...
Grieg Seafood ended 2024 with a NOK1.7bn impairment in Canada and announced a NOK1.5bn–2.0bn perpetual bond issue and potential sale-leaseback of Finnmark’s smolt facility to protect its Canadian assets. Although the short-term liquidity shortfall is plugged, none of the long-term challenges have been addressed. We have cut our target price to NOK50 (79), but reiterate our HOLD.
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