Storebrand ASA: 1 director

A director at Storebrand ASA maiden bought 10,000 shares at 106.500NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 59/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - Strong start to 2024

The Q1 earnings were above our forecast, even though some of the positive effects were one-offs (manufacturing revenues, among others). We believe Vonjo sales have bottomed out and we should be back at QOQ growth from Q2. The haemophilia franchise enjoyed stronger than expected growth, but some of this was due to phasing between quarters (hence this might hurt Q2 sales slightly). We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK335 (320).

Q1 shows core SOBI sales model works

Strong Q1 numbers, 20% CER growth and 5-15% adj EBITA beat. Vonjo questions remain, but Q1 shows that SOBI sales model works. EPS +1-2% and unchanged BUY, as core case is reaffirmed.

Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR16.50) - On track

Due to better volumes and prices in the packaging materials division, underlying Q1 earnings were above our expectations. Looking ahead, earnings are set to be supported by higher pulp prices at the same time as pricing power has strengthened for most of Stora Enso’s packaging products. We have made limited changes to our 2024–2027 forecasts, but as we are increasingly confident that Stora Enso will be able to raise its profits to a sustainably healthy level, we have increased our target price t...

Up from a low base

Earnings growth = higher capital repatriation

Q1 was softer than our bullish expectation, but a clear cons beat. Overall estimates intact and SBB of NOK 1.1bn has started. Earnings growth should warrant higher P/E multiple - BUY.

Q1'24: strong sales and decent margin

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK125.00) - Signs of gradual improvement

Q1 PTP was up 30% YOY, largely driven by strong AUM growth and increased interest rates. The Insurance segment showed signs of improvement after several rounds of repricing in previous quarters, supporting the 2025 financial targets. Following regulatory approval and a 191% Solvency II ratio, Storebrand launched a NOK1.1bn buyback programme. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK125 (120) following ~4% positive EPS revisions for 2025e.

Better from insurance

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Vonjo sales likely to ...

We forecast still-soft Vonjo sales in Q1, as we believe new patients will not fully compensate for those coming off treatment until Q2, when we expect growth to return. We are slightly below consensus for Q1e and 2024e (Q1 results due at 08:00 CET on 25 April). We reiterate our BUY and SEK320 target price.

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Strong AUM momentum

Storebrand is set to benefit from strong equity markets in Q1, as we expect AUM to be up ~22% YOY. Together with solid profit sharing from the Swedish Guaranteed business, this should offset a soft insurance result from harsh weather and disability benefits, resulting in Q1 profit before amortisation of NOK924m, up 20% YOY. We forecast a Q1 Solvency II ratio of 195%, supporting continued buybacks in line with the 2023 CMD target of NOK12bn by 2030. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–3% and o...

Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR16.00) - There is a new sheriff in town

In September 2023, Hans Sohlström took over as CEO, with a stated ambition of creating shareholder value through: 1) asset divestments; 2) reduced opex; and 3) lowered NWC. After scrutinising the self-help opportunities, we see potential for a capital release of more than EUR2bn, translating into meaningfully lower 2025–2026e EV/EBIT multiples, together with a c1% better over-the-cycle ROCE. Coupled with improved market prospects for pulp and packaging, spurring earnings growth, we have raised o...

Fabege AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at Fabege AB bought 56,700 shares at between 84.000SEK and 85.670SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 85/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last...

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Operating expenses on ...

Q4 earnings were below our forecast. Sales were in line but gross margin lower and operating expenses were higher than our estimate and consensus. The higher sales costs were due to marketing efforts behind Vonjo and launch preparations for the efanesoctocog alpha (expected EU approval in H1). Vonjo’s sales growth was also below our forecast. We reiterate our BUY and SEK320 target price.

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK118.00) - Further insurance repricing needed

Cash-equivalent earnings before amortisation were 13% higher in Q4 YOY despite the soft trend within Insurance. Repricing measures were taken throughout 2023 and as part of the 1 January renewal, with management expecting the targeted profitability to be reached in 2025. The board proposed a new NOK400m buyback programme, with the remaining NOK1.1bn to come after the AGM. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our 2025e EPS by 3% and our target price to NOK118 (120).

Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR14.00) - Eventful 2024e with catalysts

Although we expected clearer confirmation of an improvement in the harsh market conditions, we believe Stora Enso has passed the worst. Looking ahead, the company is committed to delivering on cost-cutting and divesting its Beihai site (China), which we believe could reveal hidden value and improve profitability. With conviction in the value story as well as ample self-help potential, we reiterate our BUY and EUR14 target price.

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Set for strong Q4

We expect solid Q4 earnings (results due at 08:00 CET on 8 February), driven by Beyfortus royalties, Vonjo, and Gamifant sales. We forecast a Q4 gross margin of 80.2% and improved sales growth from the integration of the Vonjo and Doptelet sales force while costs should be kept at bay. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK320 (300) on estimate revisions.

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Higher AUM supporting earnings

We expect strong equity and bond markets to help drive AUM growth in Q4, and for performance fees to further raise earnings from Asset Management, contributing to profit before amortisation of NOK1,195m, up 42% YOY. We expect the solvency to remain strong at 203%, supporting continued buybacks in line with the newly revised CMD ambition of NOK12bn by 2030. We have increased our 2025e EPS by ~1% owing to higher AUM, and raised our target price to NOK120 (119), reiterating our BUY.

Hexagon AB: 1 director

A director at Hexagon AB sold after exercising options/sold 1,000,000 shares at 119.572SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors o...

Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR14.00) - A value and self-help story

Despite the still-weak market outlook for 2024, we find good reason to turn more optimistic. Earnings expectations remain depressed and the balance sheet is healthy. We expect positive structural changes in 2024, with the new CEO in place, including a sale of the Chinese operations. We forecast a high dividend to be maintained for 2023, which is likely to be interpreted as a positive sign for profit throughout the cycle. With solid belief in the value story, we have upgraded the stock to BUY (HO...