reports
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from last week: 1) VEF’s largest holding Creditas announced a milestone partnership with Nubank; 2) Kinnevik invested USD100m in US mental health benefits platform Spring Health; 3) Aker is to sell its 62% stake in Ocean Yield; and 4) Svolder reported its year-end results.
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from last week: 1) Latour invests in battery charger supplier CTEK in conjunction with the latter’s planned IPO; 2) Kinnevik will receive at least SEK2bn in extraordinary distributions post Tele2’s exit from the Netherlands; 3) Finnish SPAC Virala traded up 35%+ last week, which could improve the sentiment for Nordic SPACs; and 4) Investor-owned Sarnova acquired a strategic add-on for ~USD290m.
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from last week: 1) Investor continues its portfolio pruning, and supported Agnafit Bidco’s SEK69bn equity value offer for Sobi; 2) we hosted VNV Global’s CEO at DNB’s Nordic TMT & Consumer Conference; and 3) we come away encouraged by Investor’s sell-side briefing on Patricia Industries.
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways: 1) we downgraded Lundbergs to SELL (HOLD) on valuation concerns; 2) Latour remains in fair valuation territory despite its high premium to reported NAV; 3) VEF completed a SEK885m directed share issue; and 4) Bloomberg reported that a consortium is weighing up an acquisition of Investor-owned SOBI.
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from last week: 1) the sector premium to NAV contracted by ~5%-points on growing valuation concerns; 2) VEF has had a busy few months, and we continue to believe the story is overlooked; and 3) Bure reported Q2 NAV and is one of only two companies to outperform the SIXRX on NAV growth YTD.
- Joachim Gunell
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from last week: 1) we downgraded Kinnevik to HOLD (BUY) as we find most near-term catalysts are reflected in the share price, as the stock is trading at a well-deserved premium to NAV; 2) we still believe Investor offers the best risk/reward profile in the sector; and 3) we see good value in Aker. We do not expect to publish the next weekly navigator until early August.
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from last week: 1) Kinnevik’s fintech holding Pleo saw a 4x valuation uplift in its recent USD150m funding round; 2) we stayed on the sidelines in Industrivärden, reiterating our HOLD; and 3) VEF shares soared 13% last week, which we attribute to its recent Swedish redomestication.
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from last week include: 1) we hosted Investor’s CFO Helena Saxon for an investor call; 2) VEF’s second-largest holding, Konfio, raised USD125m, broadly in line with VEF’s reported NAV valuation; and 3) VNV Global initiated share buybacks to tackle its discount to NAV.
- Joachim Gunell
- Joachim Gunell
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from last week: 1) Kinnevik and VNV Global-owned Babylon Health is expected to go public in H2 2021 through a SPAC merger; 2) we hosted Latour’s CEO for an investor presentation; 3) we still see an arbitrage opportunity in Kinnevik’s redemption shares; and 4) the 180-day lock-up since the Douglas family sold Latour shares in December has expired.
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from last week: 1) we reiterated our HOLD on Lundbergs; 2) we see a ‘wall-of-cash’ story developing in Kinnevik’s largest holding Tele2 after its CMD; 3) Latour is expected to be included in the OMXSB Index; and 4) we are set to host management presentations for eight investment companies.
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from last week: 1) Kinnevik’s share price soared 10% in the first week of trading without Kinnevik’s redemption shares; 2) we see an arbitrage opportunity in Kinnevik’s redemption shares; 3) Industrivärden bought 4.5m shares in Sandvik for SEK1bn; and 4) Ratos is considering a listing of Aibel.
- Joachim Gunell
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from last week: 1) Industrivärden reinvested part of its received dividends in Essity by acquiring 1.4m shares; 2) Kinnevik traded down 10%, which we attribute to a broader rotation out of pandemic ‘winners’; 3) Aker’s Q1 NAV was spot-on our estimate; and 4) Ratos continued its improved earnings momentum in Q1 – its seventh consecutive quarter of strong EBITA growth.
- Joachim Gunell
- Joachim Gunell
Latour (Hold, TP: SEK260.00) - Robust, but fairly valued
Latour is trading at a hefty 54% premium to its (conservatively) reported NAV; however, applying a 2021e EV/EBIT of 32x (broadly in line with M&A compounder peers) to its unlisted Industrial Operations, this falls to just an 8% premium (based on our NAV). For the first time ever, Latour gave this as a possible explanation for the rich valuation against reported NAV, and we expect sell-side analysts to increasingly shift to this approach. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to...
- Joachim Gunell
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from last week: 1) we still believe Kinnevik’s NAV growth outlook is worth paying for; 2) and that Investor still offers the best risk/reward in the sector; 3) VNV Global led a USD115m funding round by French mobility start-up BlaBlaCar; and 4) we believe Investor is becoming more shareholder-friendly.
- Joachim Gunell
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