reports
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Fiber slips further; FWA gains some ground
Georgia, New Mexico and Oklahoma have reported their BEAD proposals. We are also including the numbers released by Washington yesterday. While fiber remains the dominant technology, its share slipped further. FWA and satellite increased their share of locations. In this note, we analyze the results, compare them with estimates from our Broadband Insights database, and its implications for broadband companies.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: More state proposals; Fiber still dominant but Satellite gaining...
We now have BEAD proposals from 12 states. While fiber still remains the dominant technology, its share of locations has decreased as Satellite gains more ground. In this note, we analyze the results, compare them with estimates from our Broadband Insights database, and its implications for broadband companies.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: West Virginia releases final proposal
What’s new: West Virginia released their final proposal last night. Among large broadband operators, Frontier was the big winner. Comcast continues to feature in the list of proposed providers. Fiber continues to be the preferred technology. In this short note, we discuss the proposal, compare the results with our estimates from Broadband Insights database, provide a quick summary of BEAD proposals so far, and discuss the implications for broadband companies.
- Vikash Harlalka
2Q25 Broadband Trends
What’s new: in this report we discuss one of the drivers of slower broadband growth – a rise in mobileonly households. While we do not have the data to support it, we discuss the reasons why we find it a plausible explanation for the slower industry growth. We also update our industry forecast and reprise our work on competitive positioning of the operators based on relative cNPS scores.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Louisiana releases final proposal
Louisiana was the second state to release their final proposal at the end of last week. Virginia just beat Louisiana and was the first. Louisiana Local Fiber Consortium, which includes T-Mobile, was the big winner again. Surprisingly, Comcast was the only large Cable operator among the winners. The ILECs won less than we expected. Fiber continues to be the technology of choice for BEAD. In this short note, we discuss the proposal, compare the results with our estimates from Broadband Insights da...
- Blair Levin
Could the Trump/Carr Gambits Against CMSCA (and DIS) Backfire?
Recently, we published a note in which we laid out why we thought the FCC Chair’s investigation of CMSCA’s treatment of its network affiliates, like his prior investigation of DIS, was unlikely to lead to a judicially supported resolution; rather, the investigation was designed to provide Carr leverage in any FCC transaction involving CMSCA. We also just published a note discussing how the FCC and DOJ are likely to provide greater consolidation among broadcasters and cable channels, putting econ...
- Jonathan Moreland
VRTX VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED
TFX TELEFLEX INCORPORATED
SHEN SHENANDOAH TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANY
SHBI SHORE BANCSHARES INC.
PNFP PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC.
OPK OPKO HEALTH INC.
NSP INSPERITY INC.
NPO ENPRO INDUSTRIES INC.
MTDR MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
MMLP MARTIN MIDSTREAM PARTNERS L.P.
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
KMPR KEMPER CORPORATION
IFF INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC.
EIG EMPLOYERS HOLDINGS INC.
CNOB CONNECTONE BANCORP INC.
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
CHD CHURCH & DWIGHT CO. INC.
CDXS CODEXIS
ARW ARROW ELECTRONICS INC.
AMH AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT CLASS A
CIVB CIVISTA BANCSHARES
OLN OLIN CORPORATION
ASUR ASURE SOFTWARE INC
BRO BROWN & BROWN INC.
CYRX CRYOPORT INC.
FTV FORTIVE CORP.
CLAR CLARUS CORPORATION
A2H9KJ NEO PERFORMANCE MATERIAL
OSPN ONESPAN
FXNC FIRST NATIONAL CORP. OF VIRGINIA
TROX TRONOX HOLDINGS PLC
MEC MAYVILLE ENGINEERING
CCO CLEAR CHANNEL OUTDOOR HOLDINGS INC
XRX XEROX HOLDINGS CORPORATION
PINE ALPINE INCOME PROPERTY TRUST
WSC WILLSCOT MOBILE MINI HOLDINGS CORP
LRMR LARIMAR THERAPEUTICS INC
THRY THRYV HOLDINGS
DLHC DALEIGH HOLDINGS CORP
INTA INTAPP INC
PTLO PORTILLOS INC
BRBR BELLRING BRANDS INC
AUB ATLANTIC UNION BANKSHARES CORP
AURX NUO THERAPEUTICS
OI INC.
SIRI OWENS ILLINOIS INC.
XELB SIRIUS XM HLDGS INC NEW
MUSA XCEL BRANDS INC.
LNW METALS USA HOLDINGS CORP.
LIGHT & WONDER INC.
- Vikash Harlalka
Charter Communications Inc: 1 director
A director at Charter Communications Inc sold 162,694 shares at 378.500USD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...
- Jonathan Moreland
SNV SYNOVUS FINANCIAL CORP.
SIGI SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC.
SHEN SHENANDOAH TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANY
SHBI SHORE BANCSHARES INC.
PNFP PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC.
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
CDXS CODEXIS
ARW ARROW ELECTRONICS INC.
PETS PETMED EXPRESS INC.
PLBC PLUMAS BANCORP
CYRX CRYOPORT INC.
FTV FORTIVE CORP.
CMTV COMMUNITY BANCORP INC. VT
LRMR LARIMAR THERAPEUTICS INC
AURX NUO THERAPEUTICS
SIRI INC.
SIRIUS XM HLDGS INC NEW
- Vikash Harlalka
Autumn for Broadband 2Q25
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds remained nearly flat compared to a year ago (when adjusted for ACP impact) but were within the pre-pandemic norm. Industry subscriber trends have mostly stabilized over the past 3 quarters, but y/y growth remains below pre-pandemic levels.
- Jonathan Moreland
ANTM ANTHEM INC.
SSB SOUTH STATE CORPORATION
SNV SYNOVUS FINANCIAL CORP.
SIGI SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC.
SFNC SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORPORATION CLASS A
RLI RLI CORP.
PSX PHILLIPS 66
PRGS PROGRESS SOFTWARE CORPORATION
PNFP PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC.
NVCR NOVOCURE LTD.
MTH MERITAGE HOMES CORPORATION
MSCI MSCI INC. CLASS A
MOFG MIDWESTONE FINANCIAL GROUP
FBIZ FIRST BUSINESS FINANCIAL SERVICES
CNC CENTENE CORPORATION
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
ALGN ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC.
UPS UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC. CLASS B
PETS PETMED EXPRESS INC.
EPD ENTERPRISE PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P.
PBT PERMIAN BASIN ROYALTY TRUST
LIND LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS
KYN KAYNE ANDERSON MLP INVESTMENT CO.
PLBC PLUMAS BANCORP
CZWI CITIZENS COMMUNITY BANCORP
MBIN MERCHANTS BANCORP
PGC PEAPACK-GLADSTONE FINANCIAL CORP.
LOOP LOOP INDUSTRIES
CHMG CHEMUNG FINANCIAL CORP.
FVCB FVCBANKCORP
TLRY TILRAY
TROX TRONOX HOLDINGS PLC
AMTB AMERANT BANCORP (A)
PCB PACIFIC CITY FINANCIAL CORP
DMAC DIAMEDICA THERAPEUTICS INC.
CRDF CARDIFF ONCOLOGY INC
ABSI ABSCI CORP
NSPR INSPIREMD INC
BRCC BRC INC
JMSB JOHN MARSHALL BANCORP INC
PRME PRIME MEDICINE INC
MMC MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES INC.
STRW STRAWBERRY FIELDS REIT INC.
AURX NUO THERAPEUTICS
DMA INC.
MRAI DESTRA MULTI ALTERNATIVE FUND
GF MARPAI
CVM INC.
THE NEW GERMANY FUND
INC.
CEL-SCI CORPORATION
- Vikash Harlalka
Comcast Post-2Q25 Model Update
In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. Please see separate notes reviewing results (here) and thoughts following the earnings call. The most significant changes are slightly lower broadband losses and higher FCF in 2025. No change to thesis. Price target is $37 (+12%).
- Jonathan Moreland
SHEN SHENANDOAH TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANY
PNFP PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS INC.
FFIN FIRST FINANCIAL BANKSHARES INC
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
CDXS CODEXIS
CIVB CIVISTA BANCSHARES
CZWI CITIZENS COMMUNITY BANCORP
MBIN MERCHANTS BANCORP
CCO CLEAR CHANNEL OUTDOOR HOLDINGS INC
CRDF CARDIFF ONCOLOGY INC
JMSB JOHN MARSHALL BANCORP INC
MMC MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES INC.
- Vikash Harlalka
Charter Results Review & Model Update
This note belatedly covers 2Q results and model update. We also provide thoughts on EBITDA growth for the year along with other industry / Charter-specific themes emerging from the results. The major changes to the model are higher broadband losses and lower EBITDA in 2025. FCF is higher. We are close to consensus on EBITDA and slightly above on FCF. Our near-term price target is $450 (+60%).
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA: Thoughts following the 2Q25 call
In this note we provide our thoughts on connectivity revenue and EBITDA, the changes in pricing strategy, broadband ARPU growth and wireless net adds in back half of the year, fiber overbuilds, savings from tax reforms and usage of the proceeds. Finally, we touch on what to do with the stock.
- Vikash Harlalka
- Vikash Harlalka
Quick Hit: T-Mobile and KRR complete Metronet Acquisition
Last week, T-Mobile and KKR announced the completion of the acquisition of Metronet through their joint venture. Investors are focused on how fast Metronet is deploying fiber and how fast they are penetrating this build. We used our Broadband Insights database to analyze both of these in this short note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile 2Q25 Results Review & Model Update
In this note we review results, update the model, and compare updated guidance and our updated estimates to consensus. 2Q25 results were quite strong. The company beat on postpaid phone and FWA net adds as well as postpaid phone ARPU. Service revenue, EBITDA and FCF were all well ahead of expectations. Consensus for 2025 net adds and free cash flow are all but certain to rise. We also believe there is meaningful upside to estimates for free cash flow in 2026 and 2027 from tax reform. (Buy; $TP: ...
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile: quick thoughts following the 2Q25 call
We will review results and model updates in a separate note. In this note we cover comments on wholesale aspirations, convergence positioning, fiber M&A, the pace of growth in fiber JVs, the Company’s appetite for more spectrum, the implications of the 800MHz sale price, capital allocation priorities, and growth in the mobile and broadband markets.
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