reports
- Vikash Harlalka
- Jonathan Chaplin
Conflicting expectations in mobile and broadband
In our Broadband Trends report published this week, we show that bottom-up forecasts are well below our top-down forecast. The disconnect is all in Cable, and mostly in Comcast. We don’t have enough conviction in our top-down forecast to make a call on Comcast, particularly ahead of 1Q25 results where management has provided very clear context on trends, but we suspect results for the year won’t be as bad as feared. By contrast in our Wireless Trends report last week, we showed that our forecas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Further thoughts on tariff impacts on Fiber and Cable
We published our quick take on tariff impacts on Mobile and Broadband stocks last week. We haven’t learned much over the last week that would change our initial take for Wireless, or for Broadband revenues and costs. We hosted a lunch with Shentel yesterday that provided some new insights on the impact to fiber capex, with implications for Cable.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Broadband Trends: Our broadband forecast
In this report we highlight a disconnect between our top-down forecast and our and “Consensus” bottom-up forecast for broadband subscribers. Either market growth is much worse than it appeared at the end of 2024, or Cable adds will be better than expected. We also update our top-down forecast and reprise our work on competitive positioning of the operators based on relative cNPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR Quick Hit: 1Q25 Buybacks At $0.8BN; Lowering Buyback Estimate Sli...
Advance / Newhouse filed their latest Charter ownership disclosure late last week. The buyback amount for the quarter was slightly below our prior estimate. As such, we are lowering our share repurchase estimate for 1Q25 to $820MM.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter Pre-1Q25 Model Update
This report covers changes to our model to incorporate recent management commentary at investor conferences. Our broadband losses for 1Q25 remain unchanged but we lowered wireless net adds for the year. Changes to financial estimates are minor. No change to thesis. We believe repurchases resumed post Liberty Broadband vote with $4BN of repurchases this year. Our near-term price target is $426 (+15%). With broadband revaluation and M&A, stock could get to $740 (+100%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Wireless Trends: Expectations for net adds are too high
This report focuses on drivers of subscriber growth in 2025. Expectations for net adds are too high, though expectations for service revenue and EBTDA look fine. We also reprised our work on comparative NPS, provide a comprehensive review of 4Q24 trends, and update our long-term forecast
- Jonathan Chaplin
Comcast Pre-1Q25 Model Update
We aren’t bringing any fresh insights with this update; its overdue; we are just aligning our model with recent management commentary at investor conferences. Our broadband losses for 1Q25 remain unchanged and we don’t expect Consensus to change materially. Changes to financial estimates are minor. No change to thesis. Price target is $44 (+21%).
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Wireless Update: Kennedy Cancer Concerns
Plus, a Round One Win for T on 4.9 GHz, TMUS modifies DEI initiative, Carr Signals Hope for Reallocating Military Spectrum as CTIA Presses on Its Spectrum Needs and Its New Leader (Pai) Signals Splits with Carr on Merger Review Approach While there have been major developments in the last week on the future of USF, BEAD, and merger reviews, there have been smaller, but still significant, developments related to the future of wireless services. In this update, we cover those developments. The on...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Four killer insights from day one
We just wrapped up day one the Future-of-Connectivity conference that we host every year with BCG. We gleaned new insights into the risk of the broadband market getting more competitive, wireless market growth, what is driving the convergence imperative, and Lumen’s appetite for asset sales.
- Blair Levin
What Does Carr’s DEI Merger Ban Mean for TMUS, Media and Other Deals
Immediately after the election, investors were excited about the prospect of easier government approvals of transactions. However, as we have previously discussed, that is not the way the review process is working out. A further indication of the transaction barriers came up over the weekend, as multiple articles appeared stating that FCC Chair Carr would block any deal that requires FCC approval where a party has a DEI program. We have previously written about how Carr’s view on DEI would app...
Comcast Accelerates Virtualization and AI Technologies Throughout the ...
PHILADELPHIA & RA’ANANA, Israel--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- and today announced that Comcast will use DriveNets’ Network Cloud solution to expand the trial of Janus, its initiative to virtualize and embed AI innovation through the core of its network to maximize performance and continue delivering superior Internet connectivity. Comcast launched the first trial of Janus in Atlanta in September 2024, making it one of the first network operators in the world to virtualize and disaggregate the core of its transport network to further enhance the flexibility, reliability, and resiliency of its connectivi...
Charter and Comcast Launch Satellite Connectivity for Mobile Devices
STAMFORD, Conn. & PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Charter Communications (NASDAQ: CHTR) and Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) today announced that their respective mobile businesses, Spectrum Mobile and Xfinity Mobile, have launched satellite-based services through a collaboration with Skylo, a non-terrestrial network (NTN) service provider. The feature is now available on Samsung’s Galaxy S25 and Google Pixel 9 devices and will provide customers with access to emergency messaging services when their device is not connected to either a cellular or WiFi network. The ability to send and receive SMS text m...
David Novak to Chair Comcast’s “SpinCo”
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Comcast Corporation (Nasdaq: CMCSA) today announced that David Novak will become Chairman of the Board of Directors of “SpinCo,” the company’s planned spin-off of select media brands and digital businesses. Mr. Novak previously served as the Co-Founder, Chairman and CEO of YUM! Brands, Inc. and will bring nearly 40 years of experience leading and growing well-known consumer brands to the new company’s board. SpinCo will be a leading independent publicly traded media company comprised of well-known brands, including USA Network, CNBC, MSNBC, Oxygen, E!, SYFY and Gol...
Xfinity Communities Launches ‘Connected Building’ with Industry-First ...
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- , which serves multifamily properties nationwide, has introduced Connected Building, an end-to-end networking solution designed to deliver always-on, property-wide WiFi. The Connected Building solution transforms the way multifamily property owners achieve modern connectivity – both in unit and building-wide – at a price point much lower than traditional managed WiFi solutions. Demand for property-wide network infrastructure is growing among both residents and property owners. Residents expect reliable connectivity for work, streaming, and gaming, while propert...
Comcast Unveils Industry-First Gateway Designed for Apartment Building...
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Comcast has launched a new, innovative gateway with Tri-Band WiFi 6E technology that delivers faster speeds, lower latency, and ‘Instant On’ connectivity to apartment residents. The gateway allows building owners to activate additional networks to power Smart technologies and provide residents and building staff with seamless WiFi coverage across an entire property. This industry-first, award-winning product is purpose-built and retrofit-friendly for the multifamily segment. It combines cutting-edge technology with space-saving and wall-mountable design to deliv...
Comcast Brings Multiview to Millions More Xfinity X1 Customers Ahead o...
PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Just in time for the start of the men’s and women’s , Comcast today announced the expansion of Xfinity Multiview to more devices, giving millions of additional customers a new way to experience all the excitement of March hoops. With Xfinity Multiview, X1 customers can watch up to four live games at once, all on the same screen. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Comcast expands Xfinity Multiview to more X1 devices “With 164 basketball games airing over the course of a few weeks, March is the perfect time to introduce Xfinity Mu...
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