HEADLINES: • Polish banks: still opportunities, if the growth continues (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • cyber_Folks: 4Q25E results preview – 18% yoy organic adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 18 March) • Shoper: 4Q25E results preview – 11% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 18 March) • Vercom: 4Q25E results preview – 23% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 18 March) • Ten Square Games: 4Q25E preview – adjusted EBITDA -7% qoq on higher U...
We keep our positive bias on the Polish banks, although the upside is melting away, with the continuous positive share price performance. The upside left for our median 12M PTs lands at 17%+, just enough to keep our marginally positive stance on the sector. The WIG Banks index has returned c.45%+ in the LTM, mostly a function of a multiples expansion, as the 2025E median EPS change was almost zero in the LTM and the 2026E EPS saw a median cut of 10% in the LTM, driven mostly by the change in the...
EME Equity Market – January 2026 All regions in the green in January, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 11.1% mom in EUR terms and 13.2% mom in USD terms in January. The Turkish ISE was the top performer (+20.8% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX (+17.5% mom); the Romanian BET (+11.1% mom); the Greek ASE (+9.2% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+5.9% mom); and the Czech PX (+2.4% mom; all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Titan: three deals cemented, more to come (stays BUY) • Eurocash: wins court battle with antimonopoly watchdog POSITIVE • PKO BP: 4Q25E preview (due on 12 March) • Mo-BRUK: 4Q25E – 21% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 23 April) • Hungary macro: MNB on hold • Hidroelectrica: shareholders’ approval for key strategic projects • DIGI Communications: hires Linklaters and Uría Menéndez for legal work in its Spanish IPO NEUTRAL • EME Strategy: MSCI – consultations under way to reclassify...
HEADLINES: • VIGO Photonics: 4Q25 sales up 13.9% yoy, to PLN 27.4m POSITIVE • DataWalk: obtains another patent in the US POSITIVE • PKO BP: PLN 990m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 4Q25 NEUTRAL • CCC: EGM approves 2m shares buyback at a price of up to PLN 200/share NEUTRAL • CEZ: in talks to sell stake in Slovak nuclear design company NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: 17% yoy ASK growth in 2025 NEUTRAL • Kazakhstan macro: monthly GDP increases further in December • Arabian Drilling: announces three ...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: 4Q25 trading update – miss on annual investments, but recoveries strong NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska/Erste Bank: shift of shareholdings finalised as of 9 January NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: December sales increased by 13.6% yoy NEUTRAL • Duna House: strong 4Q KPIs; Czexit; Italy stake raised to 95% POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: 4Q25 trading update and 2026E volume guidance NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (1-8 January)
EME Equity Market – December 2025 Czech PX the best performer in December; no market in the red. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.6% mom in USD terms in December. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 7.6% mom; followed by the Romanian BET (+7.1% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+6.4% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+0.2% mom; all in EUR terms).
A turbulent 2025e – We have moderately lowered our 2025 revenue forecast to €1.84bn (up 3.8% yoy) and reduced our bottom-line estimate by c2% to €139mn (+7% yoy), while maintaining both our load factor (82.5%) and EBITDA forecast (€422mn, +4% yoy). These revisions capture the two-speed nature of 2025: robust H1 pricing and meaningful FX gains offset by Q3 softness and an anticipated Q4 pullback on a demanding comp base. At the same time, Aegean continues to push significant capacity growth into ...
A turbulent 2025e – We have moderately lowered our 2025 revenue forecast to €1.84bn (up 3.8% yoy) and reduced our bottom-line estimate by c2% to €139mn (+7% yoy), while maintaining both our load factor (82.5%) and EBITDA forecast (€422mn, +4% yoy). These revisions capture the two-speed nature of 2025: robust H1 pricing and meaningful FX gains offset by Q3 softness and an anticipated Q4 pullback on a demanding comp base. At the same time, Aegean continues to push significant capacity growth into ...
HEADLINES: • Romania macro: Bucharest vote supports government • Inter Cars: November sales growth decelerates to 2.6% yoy NEGATIVE • PGE: CEO and COO dismissed; former Tauron CEO appointed as acting CEO NEUTRAL • Polish utilities: ready for lower distribution WACC NEGATIVE • Jumbo: sales up 6% in November and 8% in 11M25, as expected NEUTRAL • Optima Bank SA: 4m shares block trades at 1.9% discount NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: signs an agreement to acquire Czech Airlines for EUR 154m POSITIVE • ...
EME Equity Market – November 2025 Czech PX leads in November, Türkiye the only loser. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.5% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in November. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 4.7% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX (+4.4% and +3.7% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Romanian BET and Polish WIG 20 were also in the green (+1.3% and +1.0% mom in EUR terms). The only loser was the Turkish ISE 30 (-2.0% mom in EUR terms).
The macro backdrop entering 2026E remains broadly supportive for high-dividend strategies across Emerging Europe and the frontier markets, but the opportunity set has clearly narrowed. After a year of sharp repricing across the WOOD universe, the high dividend conditions of 2024-25 have largely disappeared, as a result of many sectors rerating materially. As a result, high-dividend exposure is no longer a broad regional trade: the most compelling opportunities are now concentrated. However, the ...
HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: industry-leading FFO ROE, despite low LTV (stays BUY) • Elbit Systems: 3Q25 results – strong margin recovery, solid FCF generation POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 3Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 57% yoy, 3% above the consensus; strong 4Q25E outlook in Travel e-commerce POSITIVE • Public Power Corporation: 3Q25 beat, but FY25E guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • Enea: full 3Q25 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Patria Bank: solid bottom-line delivery in...
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: summer performance ahead of our estimates (upgraded to BUY) • Elm: clarity is on its way (stays BUY) • AmRest: 3Q25 below expectations NEGATIVE • Inter Cars: 3Q25 EBITDA above our expectations and the market by 3-6% NEUTRAL • Halyk Bank: 3Q25 highlights before the call - good quarter with an 8% beat to our estimate, 2026E guidance POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: 3Q25 results beat, on record-high refining output POSITIVE • Romgaz: 3Q25 results - net income beat our expec...
We have increased our forecasts for Aegean Airlines (Aegean) for 2025E (by 8% on the EBIT level), following a better performance in the summer than we had been pricing in. We still expect to see some margin pressure in 2026E, mainly as a function of: 1) a higher number of parked aircraft yoy; and 2) no free carbon allowances starting from January 2026E. Still, Aegean continues to generate substantial cash flows, and benefits from a modern fleet, the extension of the tourism flows into the should...
Aegean’s 3Q25 results came in marginally ahead of our estimates. The company generated revenues of EUR 647m (vs. our estimate of EUR 650m), flying 2% more ASK yoy, at a 84% load factor (which was 0.4ppts better yoy). The EBIT, at EUR 148m, was up 8% yoy, while we had been expecting a small contraction. This was not driven by any one major factor, but by a series of cost items that were slightly better than we were pencilling in. Specifically, personnel, maintenance, airport charges and depreciat...
HEADLINES: • Graphisoft Park: 3Q25 – results boosted by land plot sale POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 3Q25 – EBIT 13% ahead of our estimate, driven by 1% better CASK POSITIVE • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: weak 3Q25 financial results NEGATIVE • DO & CO: 2Q FY26 results in line with our estimates NEUTRAL • Ignitis Group: 3Q25 adjusted EBITDA 3% lower yoy on weak Green Generation and Reserve Capacities NEUTRAL • Bank of Cyprus: 3Q25 results highlights • Titan: takeaways from the Investor Day; ambit...
HEADLINES: • Banca Transilvania: bottom-line beat in 3Q25, on higher trading income and lower costs POSITIVE • Jahez: 3Q25 financial results review NEGATIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q25 – RASK pressure exceeds our estimate NEGATIVE • CCC: preliminary 3Q25 EBITDA miss of 5%; FY25E EBITDA guidance cut to PLN 1.7-1.8bn, from PLN 2.4bn NEGATIVE • Alpha Bank: 3Q25 highlights – a mixed bag NEUTRAL • Dino: key takeaways from the 3Q25 call NEGATIVE • InPost: key takeaways from the 3Q25 call NEGATIVE • MOL: ...
Please excuse the lateness of our Daily today, due to technical issues. HEADLINES: • Theon International: impressions from the CMD POSITIVE • OTP Bank: books solid 3Q25, in line with expectations; market waiting for management to reveal plans on surplus capital allocation decisions NEUTRAL • Dino: 2-3% EBITDA miss in 3Q25; lfl and EBITDA dynamics behind Zabka; FY25E guidance maintained NEGATIVE • InPost: 3Q25 slightly above expectations; FY25E EBITDA guidance trimmed, on slower Yodel NEUTRAL • ...
Low fuel prices remain a key tailwind for the sector, but many airlines under our coverage are seeing margin compression this year, as yields lag CASK inflation. The early summer was also affected negatively by the June escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. We expect Wizz Air to deliver c.20% EBIT growth, off a relatively low base last summer; while Aegean Airlines and Turkish Airlines to record mid-single digit yoy EBIT declines in 3Q25E, with the modest yield pressure and rising CASK ...
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