GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call: Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Well-Positioned For 1Q Results Season: Our April picks again beat the KLCI. May 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MYEG, Press Meta...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal International. Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pick up; take...
The JCI declined 3.3% in Apr 24 and our portfolio managed to outperform slightly, delivering a -3.2% return. The biggest gainers were SIDO (+15.2%), EXCL (+6.8%) and ACES (+3.7%). The largest losers were BBTN (-17.6%), MAPI (-16%) and CTRA (-9.8%). We think the JCI is likely to deliver another negative return in May 24. We removed EXCL, MAPI and CTRA, and add TLKM and BSDE. Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA.
Strategy: Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ/SELL/Rp6,425/Target: Rp5,715): 1Q24: Within expectations. Maintain SELL as we are concerned with its flat FFB production growth, lower mill utilisation rate and weak downstream margin. Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp6,325/Target: Rp7,300): 1Q24: Net profit up 1.1% yoy, slightly below expectations. Maintain BUY with a lower target price. Trime...
The Middle East conflict could impact financial markets if Iran or another major Islamic country is involved. The rupiah depreciation could be the biggest concern for the Indonesian economy. Oil, LNG, nickel and copper prices have rallied. Commodity companies could benefit from high prices while consumer companies could be negatively impacted. Banks should be neutral and their valuations are now more reasonable. Our top picks are: BBNI, BBRI, CTRA, BSDE, BUKA, ACES, JSMR, NCKL, AKRA and TAPG.
Strategy: Potential Impact Of The Middle East Conflict: Our top picks: Banking – BBNI, BBTN; property − BSDE, CTRA; technology – BUKA; consumer − MYOR, CMRY; retail – ACES; infrastructure – JSMR; mining – NCKL. Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp3,170/Target: Rp4,400): 1Q24: Net profit up 20% qoq, partly thanks to margin expansion. Maintain BUY. TRADERS’ CORNER Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ): Technical BUY Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ): Technical BUY
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24 : Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ/BUY/Rp1,895/Target: Rp2,100) : 4Q23: Core NPAT below expectations due to high tax rate. TRADERS’ CORNER Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ): Technical BUY Harum Energy (HRUM IJ): Technical BUY
Our portfolio outperformed in Mar 24, delivering an average 1.8% return vs the JCI’s 1.3% decline. In 1Q24, our portfolio appreciated 8.4% on market-weighted return vs the JCI’s 0.2% return. Our removal of large-cap banks (BMRI, BBNI) last month has so far proven to be correct with the recent weakness in large-cap banks’ share prices. We add ACES to our portfolio on the back of traffic recovery and margin expansion. Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA.
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare: Government’s draft plan seeks to promote a more supportive drug innovation ecosystem. Results Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb24.35/Target: Rmb29.10): 4Q23: Top-line beat but margins miss; raise estimates on the AI business. INDONESIA ASEAN Gems Conference Highlights Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ/BUY/Rp5,250/Target: Rp7,300): Tariff adjustments at 12 toll road sections to drive 19.3% core NPAT growth in 2024. MALAYSIA Results Bermaz Auto (BAUTO MK/BUY/RM2...
Highlights on JSMR at our Taiwan conference include: a) toll revenue is estimated to grow 15-17% yoy in 2024, b) tariffs will be adjusted by an average of 6-7% at 12 toll road sections in 2024 after tariff adjustments of 6-7% at 19 concessions in 2023, c) a high level of interest from potential investors on the JTT divestment, and d) its ability to manage cost of debt to improve profitability. We maintain our 2024 core NPAT estimate at Rp3.2t (+19.3% yoy). Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp7,300 (39...
4Q23 core NPAT grew 14.8% qoq mainly due to stronger overall revenue growth. 2023 core NPAT grew 434% yoy on: a) improving toll traffic, b) increasing tariffs, and c) decreasing financial expenses, and exceeded our and market expectations. We estimate 2024 revenue growth at 16.0% yoy, supported by a 6.1% yoy traffic growth and average tariff adjustments of 6-7% at 19 toll road sections in 2023 and 12 sections in 2024. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp7,300 (39% upside).
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade: Better exports on improving global manufacturing new orders. Sector Automobile: Weekly: PEV insurance registrations rebound 19% in the week ending 3 Mar 24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: XPeng. Top BUY: CATL, Tuopu and Desay SV. Initiate Coverage ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/ HK$95.95/Target: HK$115.00): Advanced packaging giant emerging as a major AI play. Results Wharf Real Estate Investment Co. (1997 HK/BUY/HK$26.20/Target: HK$31.20): 2023: Effective debt reduction; vis...
Bank Neo Commerce (BBYB IJ/BUY/Rp276/Target: Rp400): 4Q23: Net loss narrows to Rp7b; expecting to turn profitable in 2024. Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ/BUY/Rp5,250/Target: Rp7,300): 4Q23: Core NPAT grows 14.8% qoq on improving toll traffic and tariffs. TRADERS’ CORNER Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM IJ): Technical BUY Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL IJ): Technical BUY
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Call: Adding CMB, COLI, CR Beer, Kuaishou and TUL to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Significant Outperformance In Feb 24: Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Focusing On Earnings Momentum: Our Alpha Picks underperformed the KLCI in Feb 24 (-0.9% vs 2.5%). Mar 24 picks significantly feature companies with good earnings momentum. SINGAPORE...
Our portfolio significantly outperformed in Feb 24, delivering an average 4.2% return compared with the JCI’s 1.9% appreciation. Out of the eight names in our portfolio, seven beat the JCI and only one underperformed. We take profit on large-cap banks (BMRI and BBNI) and add BBTN. We also add CMRY and SIDO to our portfolio given the potential of a strong performance in 2024. Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA.
Strategy: Alpha Picks: Significant Outperformance In Feb 24: Our picks are BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, MYOR and AKRA. Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ/HOLD/Rp1,225/Target: Rp1,200): 4Q23: High return rate caused 38.9% yoy decline in NPAT. Downgrade to HOLD. PP London Sumatra (LSIP IJ/HOLD/Rp870.00/Target: Rp930.00): 4Q23: Results below expectations on lower-than-expected FFB production. TRADERS’ CORNER Adaro Energy Indonesia (ADRO IJ): Technical BUY Charoen Pokphand Indonesia...
A key policy of Prabowo Subianto will be to increase the government debt level to 50% of GDP. Government debt is rising but it is low at 38.1% of GDP compared with Thailand’s 61.4% and Malaysia’s 66.9%. The proposed increase to 50% could drive economic growth to further fund development, creating a multiplier effect on the economy. Our top picks: BBNI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BUKA, MYOR, CMRY, ACES, JSMR, and NCKL with 7,800 as the JCI’s end-24 target.
Strategy: Policy Matters – Raising Government Debt Level: Our top picks: Banking – BBNI, BBTN; property − BSDE, CTRA; technology – BUKA; consumer − MYOR, CMRY; retail – ACES; infrastructure – JSMR; mining – NCKL. TRADERS’ CORNER Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ): Technical BUY Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF IJ): Technical BUY
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