reports
- Benyamin Mikael
- Chong Lee Len
- Colin Lee
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, November 19, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$28.80/Target: HK$33.50) 3Q24: Beat across the board; expect sustained growth across all key segments. Maintain BUY and raise target price to HK$33.50. INDONESIA Update Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ/SELL/Rp26,850/Target: Rp25,100) Expect profit to decline by 12% yoy in 2025, fuelled by lower ASP. MALAYSIA Results CelcomDigi (CDB MK/BUY/RM3.37/Target: RM4.50) 9M24: In line; stock offers 5% yiel...
- Benyamin Mikael
Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) - Expect Profit To Decline 12% yoy In...
ITMG’s net profit is projected to decline 12% yoy in 2025 due to lower coal prices despite a higher sales volume. The NPR mine, which is expected to start production in 2025, could provide additional upside, though it is not yet factored into our forecasts. Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie projects a slight global thermal coal deficit in 2025, with Newcastle coal prices falling to US$129/tonne (-4.4% yoy) amid mixed trends in coal exports and imports across key markets. Maintain SELL. Target prce: Rp25...
- Benyamin Mikael
- Maskun Ramli
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Johnny Yum
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Notes: Friday, November 08, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Surprising beat on exports. Sector Automobile Weekly: Trump’s tariff to reshape China automobile supply chain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. Results Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$36.35/Target: HK$46.00) 3Q24: EBITDA decline due to higher reinvestmen...
BCP THE BANGCHAK PETROLEUM PCL
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ITMG INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
7160 PENTAMASTER CORP. BHD
BH BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
EGH EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS
INCO VALE INDONESIA
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
DLG DIALOG GROUP BHD
LPN LPN DEVELOPMENT PCL
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
ADROIJ ADARO ENERGY
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Trump Wins: What Is The Potential Impact On Indonesia?
We expect the impact on Indo-US export flows to be manageable as a 10-20% tariff is unlikely to compensate for the US’ high labour cost. The risk may come from Indo-China trade as a sizeable amount of exports to China are commodities. We focus on sectors likely to benefit from domestic policies − banks, auto, property, technology and consumer − while reducing positions in commodities. Our BUYS: BBNI, BBRI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, CMRY, ACES, GOTO and ASII. Trim: ADRO, ITMG and INCO.
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ITMG INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH
INCO VALE INDONESIA
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
ADRO ADARO ENERGY INDONESIA TBK PT
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Friday, November 8, 2024
Strategy: Trump Wins: What Is The Potential Impact On Indonesia? Positives: Banking − BBNI, BBRI, BBTN; property − BSDE, CTRA; consumer − CMRY; retail − ACES; technology − GOTO. Negatives: ADRO, ITMG, INCO. TRADERS’ CORNER Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ): Technical BUY Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ): Technical BUY
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ITMG INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH
INCO VALE INDONESIA
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
ADROIJ ADARO ENERGY
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - The Beginning Of The Rate Cut Cycle
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research expects the US Fed to cut interest rates starting in 3Q24, with a 50bp reduction in 2H24. BI is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady. This could widen the gap between the US Fed rate and the BI’s 7-day repo rate and cause funds to flow back into Indonesian bonds, strengthening the rupiah. Higher GDP growth could also translate to funds flowing back to Indonesian equities. Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BUKA, CMRY, ACES and JSMR...
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ITMG INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
SMGR SEMEN INDONESIA PERSERO TBK
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, May 20, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity April data reflects uneven progress. Sector Property The central government announced a solid policy combo to revive buyers’ sentiment, marking a positive action to mitigate the property industry’s risks. INDONESIA Results Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ/SELL/Rp24,075/Target: Rp21,500) 1...
- Limartha Adhiputra
Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) - 1Q24: NPAT Drops 34.8% qoq On Lower...
ITMG delivered a 1Q24 NPAT of US$61.6m, declining 66.3% yoy and 34.8% qoq mainly due to softer yoy ASP and lower qoq coal sales volume. The results were below expectations, but could improve in the next quarter as the sales volume might return to normal. We estimate 2024 and 2025 NPAT at US$346m (-30.7% yoy) and US$248m (- 28.3% yoy) respectively. Maintain SELL with a lower target price of Rp21,500.
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Ming San Soong
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, April 22, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Online Travel Agencies: Robust Qingming festival travel momentum continues into Labour Day. Results Dian Diagnostics (300244 CH/BUY/Rmb14.36/Target: Rmb18.50): 2023: Results in line; smooth progress in developing esoteric testing business. EVE Energy (300014 CH/SELL/Rmb35.00/Target: Rmb20.00): 4Q23: Earnings miss on margins. Maintain SELL. Cut target price from Rmb24.00 to Rmb20.00. Huizhou Desay SV Automotive Co (002920 CH/BUY/Rmb118.01/Target: Rmb145.00): 1Q24: Earnings mi...
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
ITMG INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
TMB TMB BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
6888 AXIATA GROUP BHD.
KTB-R KRUNG THAI BANK PCL NVDR
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
300244 DIAN DIAGNOSTICS GROUP CO
- Limartha Adhiputra
Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) - Ramping Up Coal Production In Antic...
Global coal prices are stabilising with a potential short-term rise due to the uncertainty over China’s domestic coal production. ITMG expects a potential growth in global demand for seaborne thermal coal demand throughout 2024, and has guided for higher coal production of 19.5m-20.2m tonnes in 2024, up 16.0% yoy. As a result, 2024-25 NPAT might come in at US$368m (-26.3% yoy) and US$306m (-16.8% yoy) respectively. Maintain SELL with a higher target price of Rp22,300.
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, February 27, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector IT Hardware: Updates on MWC 2024 and read-through on FII from NVIDIA’s results. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Results Li Auto (2015 HK/SELL/HK$139.90/Target: HK$100.00): 4Q23: Earnings beat estimates on changes of accounting assumptions. Maintain SELL. Target price: HK$100.00. INDONESIA Results Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ/SELL/Rp25,800/Target: Rp21,000): 4Q23: NPAT edges down 4.4% qoq following lower ASP, below expectations. MALAYSIA Results AMMB Holdings (AMM MK/HOLD/RM4.31/...
- Limartha Adhiputra
Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) - 4Q23: NPAT Edges Down 4.4% qoq Foll...
4Q23 NPAT declined 69.1% yoy and 4.4% qoq following a lower qoq ASP of US$95.90/tonne. Hence, 2023 NPAT came in below expectations, dropping 58.3% yoy to US$500m and contributing to only 89% and 90% of our and consensus forecasts respectively. For 2024, we expect ITMG to produce 17.9m tonnes and sell 21.9m tonnes of coal. We estimate 2024-25 NPAT at US$344m (-31.2% yoy) and US$288m (-16.2% yoy) respectively. Maintain SELL with a target price of Rp21,000.
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ/SELL/Rp25,800/Target: Rp21,000): 4Q23: NPAT edges down 4.4% qoq following lower ASP, below expectations. TRADERS’ CORNER Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ): Technical BUY Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ): Technical BUY
- Limartha Adhiputra
Coal – Flattish Demand Outlook With Stabilising Prices, Dividend Yield...
US$136/tonne for 2024. IEA forecasts global coal demand to remain flat in 2024. Indonesia’s coal production should peak in 2023 and remain flat in 2024 on more coal supply coming from China and Australia. Dividend payments are still attractive with high yield of 5-10%. NPAT should decline by more than 40% in 2023 and followed by more than 20% in 2024. Downgrade to UNDERWEIGHT; maintain HOLD on ADRO but SELL ITMG.
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Damon Shen
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Ming San Soong
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, November 16, 2023
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: Stronger retail sales in Oct 23, but FAI stays weak. Initiate Coverage Longfor Group Holdings (960 HK/BUY/HK$13.04/Target: HK$17.68): Leading developer and TOD mall operator in China’s Tier 1 and 2 cities. Results JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$105.90/Target: HK$186.00): 3Q23: Tempered top-line growth; 4Q23 outlook to be anchored by resilient 11.11 performance. Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$322.60/Target: HK$425.00): 3Q23: Earnings beat driven by meaningful m...
- Limartha Adhiputra
Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) - 3Q23: NPAT Continues To Fall 20.4% ...
3Q23 NPAT declined 20.4% qoq on receding ASP of US$98.9/tonne. 9M23 NPAT also fell 54.6% yoy to US$406m, with 9M23 NPAT only contributing 61% and 65% of our and consensus forecasts respectively, below expectations. We expect ITMG to sell 21.1m tonnes of coal in 2023 and 21.5m tonnes of coal in 2024. 2023-24 net profit should come in at US$559m (-53.4% yoy) and US$425m (-24.1% yoy) respectively. Maintain SELL with a lower target price of Rp21,000.
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